Devizes Gateway Feasibility Study

Strategic Outline Case Report

Wiltshire Council

October 2021

Notice

This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely as information for Wiltshire Council and use in relation to the Strategic Outline Case for delivering a rail station in Devizes.

Atkins Limited assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents.

This document has 16767 pages including the cover.

Document history

Revision	Purpose description	Originated	Checked	Reviewed	Authorised	Date
Rev 1.0	Section 1 to Section 2.8 draft	VH, DG, SG, CW	AT	OR	AT	26/03/2021
Rev 2.0	Strategic Case draft	VH, DG, SG, CW	SG	AT	AT	31/03/2021
Rev 3.0	Strategic Case draft update	VH, SG	AT	OR	AT	23/04/2021
Rev 4.0	SOBC draft	SG, DG, AL, CW, CN	OR	AT	AT	07/05/2021
Rev 5.0	Revised SOBC draft	SG, AT		AT	AT	14/05/2021
Rev 6.0	Revised SOC draft following further analytical work	AT, DG, AL	DG	AT	AT	13/10/2021
Rev 7.0	Draft incorporating steering group comments	AT, DG, AL	AT	AT	AT	25/10/2021
Rev 7.1 (Final)	Final/	AT, DG, AL	AT	AT	AT	26/10/2021

Client signoff

Client	Wiltshire Council
Project	Devizes Gateway Feasibility Study
Job number	5204661
Client signature/date	

Contents

Chapter	Page

Executive Summary	5

1.	Introduction	23

1.1	Context for the study	23

1.2	Description of the scheme	23

1.3	Aims of this study	24

2.	Strategic Case	26

2.1.	Introduction	26

2.2.	Policy Context	26

2.3.	Context for the Scheme	31

2.4.	Summary of Key Issues and Challenges	64

2.5.	Summary of Rationale for Change	65

2.6.	Objectives	66

2.7.	Logic Map	67

2.8.	Existing Support for the Scheme	69

2.9.	Option Development and Assessment	70

2.10.	Risks, Constraints and Dependencies	83

2.11.	Strategic Assessment of Options	84

2.12.	Strategic Case Summary and Conclusions	89

3.	Economic Case	91

3.1.	Introduction to the Economic Case	91

3.2.	Journey Time Impacts	92

3.3.	Demand	105

3.4.	Costs	117

3.5.	Revenue	124

3.6.	Economic appraisal – obtaining value for money	125

3.7.	Economic Case Summary and Conclusions	134

4.	Financial Case	136

4.1.	Introduction	136

4.2.	Scheme Costs	136

4.3.	Funding Sources	137

4.1.	Funding Sources	137

4.2.	Funding Profile	137

5.	Commercial Case	138

5.1.	Introduction	138

5.2.	Procurement Strategy	138

6.	Management Case	140

6.1.	Introduction	140

6.2.	Implementation of Similar Projects	140

6.3.	Governance Structure	141

6.4.	Project Programme	144

6.5.	Project Plan	144

6.6.	Assurance and Approvals Plan	144

6.7.	Communications and Stakeholder Management	145

6.8.	Key Risks	147

7.	Conclusions and Summary	150

7.1.	Next steps	151

Appendix A - Stakeholder Engagement	152

Stakeholder Engagement Mapping	152

Stakeholder Quotes	153

Survey Activity	154

Appendix B - Rail Operational Feasibility	161

Overview	161

Baseline services on the Berks and Hants line	161

Structure of the base timetable	162

Base timetable and forecast freight	164

Options considered	166

Approach to the timetable assessment	166

Option review	167

Conclusion	171

Appendix C - Demographic Analysis	172

Population Pyramids	172

Appendix D – Indicative Scheme Drawing	173

Executive Summary

Overarching Summary

This Strategic Outline Case considers the case for a new station on the Reading to Taunton Great Western Main Line, situated between Pewsey and Westbury serving Devizes and surrounding areas. The station, to be known as Devizes Gateway, would be sited around 3.5miles from Devizes Town Centre at a site near Lydeway (51°19.8’N 1°55.5’W), although other potential station sites are also available. The unmanned station would consist of two platforms, a footbridge, ticket machine facilities, a car park, taxi rank and a bus interchange. The station would be integrated into the local bus network, and is proposed to be connected directly to the Devizes Town Centre via an express shuttle bus. Improved active travel links to the town would also be considered as part of the development of a Devizes Local Cycling and Walking Infrastructure Plan.

The station would be served by extending the hourly London Paddington to Bedwyn service to Westbury, providing Devizes Gateway with hourly direct services to destinations such as Westbury, Bedwyn, Newbury, Reading, and London. To allow such a service to operate without interfering with other timetabled passenger or freight services, requires the construction of a passing loop near Bedwyn and a new platform at Westbury. Including the Department for Transport’s (DfT’s) allowance for optimism bias, the costs of the station and associated works at Bedwyn and Westbury have been estimated at around £48m. Operating costs are estimated to be £1.75m per annum.

Devizes is a market town of 19,000 people, with 34,000 living in the wider Devizes community area. It is also an important regional centre of employment and tourism. Without a station, Devizes is poorly served by public transport, and accessing the rail network can involve lengthy car or bus journeys to stations such as Pewsey, Melksham, Chippenham and Swindon. This poor connectivity constrains opportunities for employment, education, tourism and development. On this basis the key objective of Devizes Gateway is to improve connectivity across the heart of Wiltshire, to increase access to employment and education opportunities, and support the levelling up of relatively isolated communities. It also aims to positively contribute to the Climate Emergency and help to reduce air quality issues through promoting modal shift to lower carbon travel.

The improvements to connectivity that the station can offer is significant: journey times for people travelling to or from Devizes from some key locations, such as London, Reading, Newbury and Westbury, will be over half an hour quicker than today. Trip rate analysis of other stations in the region has shown that demand for the new station serving Devizes might be expected to be around 350,000 passengers per year, a level higher than some neighbouring stations such as Pewsey.

In line with the latest DfT and HM Treasury guidance, the economic case has been assessed proportionately to the early stage of the scheme and the requirements of the Strategic Outline Case. As such detailed cost benefit analysis has not been undertaken. Instead, analysis has been undertaken of the key drivers of the business case, namely demand, journey time savings, revenues and costs, to establish the likely value for money of the scheme and its sensitivity to key assumptions. While a baseline set of assumptions around these key drivers indicated the scheme to be low value for money if the costs of the works at Bedwyn and Westbury are excluded and poor value for money if the costs of this associated infrastructure is included, the analysis also showed that results to be very sensitive to assumptions around demand and revenue, with certain plausible scenarios even providing financially positive schemes. It is also important to note that a variety of potentially significant benefits are not captured by the appraisal, such as the benefits that users of other stations such as Pewsey and Westbury will experience from a dramatically improved train service.

HM Treasury green book guidance emphasises that particularly at this early stage of the scheme, an articulation of the strategic benefits and the drivers of those benefits, is more important than a monetised cost benefit ratio, which for various reasons, is both limited in scope and subject to a high degree of uncertainty. As such much of the focus on this SOC is on establishing the strategic case, and on investigating the technical and operational considerations of opening a new station on a busy mainline railway route.

The station has widespread local and industry support. Consultation has been undertaken among key stakeholders, local authorities, and businesses, and education providers, all of whom are strongly supportive. Network Rail and Great Western Railway have been closely involved in the study and are supportive of the conclusions. A recent survey of over 2,500 residents established strong local support for the scheme.

Background

In January 2020 the Secretary for State for Transport announced the establishment of a £500m Restoring Your Railway fund with the specific purpose of re-opening closed railways and stations. This fund included the facility for local authorities and other promoters to submit early stage proposals for reopening lines and stations, with successful applicants receiving grants to undertake the development of early stage feasibility and business case work.

Wiltshire Council, along with the Devizes Development Partnership (DDP), successfully applied to the Restoring Your Railway Ideas Fund to undertake a feasibility study for the opening of a new station serving Devizes and its environs, and hence restoring rail access to a town which lost its original railway station 55 years ago.

This report presents the Strategic Outline Case (SOC) for the Devizes Gateway rail station scheme, which has been developed in accordance with the Department for Transport’s (DfT’s) Restoring Your Railway and Transport Business Case guidance. The purpose of this SOC is to establish whether reconnecting Devizes to the rail network via a new station at Devizes Gateway is likely to:

have a strategic fit with local and national policy;

have a demonstrated case and need for intervention; and,

be technically feasible and economically viable.

Scheme history and development

At one stage Devizes was served by a branch line that diverged from the Reading-Taunton line west of Pewsey and ran via Devizes to a junction with the Swindon-Westbury route at Holt. The line and all its stations including Devizes station itself closed in April 1966 as per the recommendations of the 1963 Reshaping of British Railway Report, commonly known as the Beeching report. The result is that Devizes, a town of approximately 19,000 people and with 34,000 in the wider community area, is relatively isolated from the rail network. The nearest stations to Devizes such as Pewsey, Chippenham, Melksham Trowbridge or Westbury are all at least 8 miles away, and moreover these are only accessible to residents or visitors to Devizes either via infrequent and slow bus routes or through the use of a car.

Since its closure 55 years ago, much of the track bed of the Devizes Branch Line has been redeveloped and built on, and little now remains of the original alignment or stations. For this reason, reinstating the original Branch Line and reopening the original Devizes station is no longer a feasible option.

Instead it is proposed to open a new station, to be known as Devizes Gateway, at a location between Pewsey and Westbury stations on the existing Berks and Hants Railway Line that passes approximately four miles to the south and south east of Devizes. Such a station, together with an express shuttle bus from the station to Devizes town centre, would dramatically improve the accessibility of both the town and its environs for residents, businesses and visitors.

A number of potential sites for such a station have been identified, including one near Market Lavington around 5 miles to the south of Devizes, and one near Lydeway around 3 miles to the south east. Both sites are credible options, but the proximity of Lydeway to Devizes, as well as the topography of the location, mean that at this stage of the study the Lydeway site forms a preferred location.

As both sites are some distance from Devizes the provision of station car parking and public transport facilities would form an important complementary element of the proposed scheme. Both station sites could be served by an hourly train service provided by extending the existing Paddington to Bedwyn services to Westbury, for which additional infrastructure at Bedwyn and Westbury would need to be provided, although other options also exist by stopping the 2 hourly semi fast service between London and Exeter. Further analysis of this is presented in the report.

Reproduced from The New Adlestrop Railway Atlas © Richard Fairhust.

Study Objectives

An important starting point for this study is to develop a clear set of objectives, consistent with local and national policy, for improving the accessibility of Devizes and its environs to the rail network. The study then assesses three strategic options that have been identified as being able to meet these objectives:

A new station on the Berks and Hants line serving Devizes with associated links to the town. The study includes assessment of two different options and examines site considerations, particularly with regard to access, rail operations and how the station might be served by rail services, costs, demand, and likely value for money. Analysis of these options forms the main focus of the study.

Improving access to existing rail stations. The study examines whether improving links between Devizes and existing stations in the region, primarily via enhancements to the local bus network, can provide a credible alternative to the scheme.

Alternative improvements for meeting the stated objectives such as improvements to the provision of bus or active travel modes.

The key decision being sought at the SOC stage is determining whether any of these options are worthy of further study and funding. If so, then the next stage of the scheme’s development would be to undertake a more detailed assessment of the costs and benefits of different options, that would identify and develop a design for a single preferred option. This would then form the second business case stage - an Outline Business Case (OBC). Following further detailed scheme design and consultation of the preferred option, the final stage would be a Full Business Case (FBC), from which a final decision can be effectively taken on whether to fund and deliver the project.

In accordance with the DfT guidance, the SOC and hence this report is structured around the examination of five key elements which constitute a business case:

The Strategic Case: The Strategic Case sets out the context of the scheme, the rationale for why it is needed, the objectives and the alignment of these with local national and policy, and a high-level assessment of the different options.

The Economic Case: The Economic Case sets out the costs and benefits of a preferred option and hence the likely value for money that the scheme can provide.

The Financial Case: The Financial Case outlines the delivery partners and their procurement strategy, as well as the statutory and other regulatory processes which need to be managed.

The Commercial Case: The Commercial Case outlines the delivery partners and their procurement strategy, as well as the statutory and other regulatory processes which need to be managed.

The Management Case: The Management Case outlines the appropriate governance structure for the delivery partners, the high-level project programme with key dependencies and milestones, and the project programme.

As per DfT’s Transport Business Case Guidance, the Strategic Outline Case forms the first stage in a three stage process, with an investment decision point following each stage.

Strategic Case

Policy Context

Better connecting Devizes with the national rail network is consistent with wide range of existing and emerging policies at a national and local. These include:

HMT’s National Infrastructure Strategy to level up the whole of the UK: A key government policy is to use infrastructure investment to unite and level up the UK, delivering a stronger Union, thriving regions, the enablement of towns and cities to reach their full potential, and the revitalisation of towns and communities.

DfT’s Decarbonising Transport: Setting the Challenge: As part of the wider UK objective to become carbon neutral by the Department for Transport have identified six strategic objectives to decarbonise transport including accelerating modal shift to public and active transport.

DfT’s Transport Investment Strategy: DfT’s investment strategy is to 1) create a more reliable, less congested and better-connected transport network that works for the users who rely on it, 2) building a stronger, more balanced economy by enhancing productivity and responding to local growth priorities. 3) enhancing Britain’s global competitiveness by making Britain a more attractive place to trade and invest. 4) supporting the creation of new housing.

Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership’s Local Economic Plan and Rail Strategy: Rail Strategy proposes a package of four recommendations for the Berks & Hants Line that together enhances access to the rail network and improves the quality of services across the LEP’s region, with a new station serving Devizes forming one of the recommendations. Initial options assessment indicates that a new station in Devizes could have an additional Gross Added Value (GVA) benefit of approximately £6.56 million per annum

Western Gateway Sub-national Transport Body Strategic Transport Plan (2020-2025) and Western Gateway Rail Strategy: Western Gateway have identified Devizes rail station in their delivery plan.

Wiltshire Council Local Transport Plan 3 (2011-2026), Core Strategy and Local Plan Review: Wiltshire have identified improving rail connectivity through the provision of bus-rail links and assist with the implementation of some new stations as an element of their local transport plan to help support the delivery of 2,010 new homes in Devizes.

Geographic Context

Devizes is the most populous town in Wiltshire not served directly by a rail line, with the closest railway stations being Melksham and Trowbridge to the west, and Pewsey to the east. Located in the centre of Wiltshire, the market town has an estimated population of 19,097 while the wider Devizes Community Area, covering smaller settlements including Market Lavington and Rowde, has an estimated population of 34,000 and forms the study area for this SOC.

Devizes is located at the crossroads of the A361 and A342 enabling highway links to Chippenham, Swindon and the M4. A number of principal roads pass through Devizes, connecting the town to other key locations in Wiltshire:

A342 – Diverges from the A4 to the east of Chippenham, heading south east through Devizes and connecting to the A303 near Andover. Congestion on the junctions of the A342 in Devizes is one of the principal reasons why Devizes became an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA);

A361 – From Beckhampton to Taunton. Links Devizes to Trowbridge and Frome to the south west; and

A360 – From Devizes to Salisbury travelling across Salisbury Plain, connecting to the A303 near Stonehenge. Congestion is an issue on the A360, particularly in Potterne, West Lavington and on the approaches to Salisbury.

A picture containing map Description automatically generated

Socio-Economic Context

Industry and employment

Devizes provides a key service role within a wider, largely rural area. For a relatively small market town, Devizes has a number of large employers across a range of sectors, including advanced manufacturing, food production and the service sector. A number of these businesses are owned by overseas companies that have made significant investments and are currently looking to either expand onto larger premises or invest further in their existing site. With the recent departure from the European Union foreign direct investment is a priority for the UK Government.

Wiltshire Council along with Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership view Devizes as an area seeing substantial economic growth. There are a number of companies who have expressed an interest in locating in Devizes resulting in further growth in the area. In discussions between the Council, LEP, partners and potential occupiers the addition of a railway station is mentioned as a development that would significantly enhance the attractiveness of the area to business and enable employees to travel to work in a sustainable manner.

Businesses have highlighted to the Devizes Development Partnership the lack of rail connectivity and ability to commute, with some having to pay relocation fees to acquire the staff they need, or risk losing out to other employers located elsewhere. The difficulty in keeping staff due to transport challenges, particularly younger staff who do not have a car, is another issue raised by local businesses. The current lack of connectivity acts as a deterrent to businesses who might be considering Devizes as a potential location for setting up or expanding

Tourism

Devizes has the potential to be a key tourism attraction in Wiltshire. Devizes sits on the route of the Great West Way midway between London and Bristol in the heart of rural Wiltshire on the edge of the North Wessex Downs AONB and the Stonehenge and Avebury World Heritage Site. The Swindon & Wiltshire LEP Local Industrial Strategy (LIS) includes the development of the Great West Way as one of its four strategic priorities under the Places foundation as a route to inclusive growth. The current North Wessex Downs AONB’s Management Plan has a key objective to promote the North Wessex Downs as a destination for responsible tourism that respects and promotes the special qualities of the AONB and its setting. Its policy aims to support initiatives to help communities and businesses reduce the outflow of revenue, retaining and recycling wealth in the area for longer”.

The historic market town contains architectural heritage with more than 500 listed buildings. Furthermore, the town is central to the two sections of the World Heritage Site, and Devizes is seen as a base for onward travel to these internationally recognised destinations.

In addition to Devizes’ existing visitor attractions and position on the Great West Way, there are a number of regeneration plans underway to improve the town’s tourism offer, These include:

Regeneration of Devizes Wharf to include an 80-bed hotel;

Refurbishment of the Grade 1 listed Assizes Courts to be the new home of Wiltshire Museum which has outgrown its current site;

Refurbishment of the Shambles indoor historic market adjacent to the Market Place; and

Development of a new Country Park beside Devizes Castle.

As a result, tourism has the potential to be a considerable contributor to the economy of the Devizes Community Area. With plans to enhance the town’s existing tourism offer by becoming a centre on the Great West Way and deliver economic growth, the town aims to expand the tourist economy through taking a leading role as a centre for tourism in the county.

For tourism to flourish in the town, it is reliant on convenient and efficient access to the town centre and its key attractions, as well as the nearby internationally significant landmarks such as Stonehenge and Avebury. Developing enhanced connectivity will attract more national and international visitors, taking advantage of the Great West Way and its proximity to the World Heritage Sites.

Education

Access to further and higher education is also an issue for young people in the Devizes Community Area, as they have to travel out of the area for college and out of county for university education. A Young People’s survey by Devizes Development Partnership has found that their first choices for education, apprenticeship or employment opportunities is negatively impacted by poor transport connectivity.

Demographics

Devizes Community Area has a lower proportion of working age people (62%, 15-64) compared to Wiltshire (64%), and England (66%), in part driven by the fact poor accessibility means that many working age people relocate to better connected areas.

The population of the Devizes Community Area can be expected to grow in the future as demographic changes take place. ONS population projections indicate that Wiltshire as a whole is forecast to grow in population by approximately 46,000 between 2018 and 2038.

Housing and deprivation

While Devizes and its environs are largely affluent there are areas of localised deprivation. Within Devizes there are three areas which fall within the lowest 30th - 40th deciles of most deprived areas nationally, located in the east, west, and north-west of the town. These areas, along with pockets in rural areas in the wider Community Area, face economic challenges; access to further education, apprenticeships and better job prospects is challenging for those that do not own or have access to a car.

Only a few LSOAs have a median house price under the national average house price of £245,000.

Local Development Context

Devizes and the wider Community Area is a focus area for housing and employment growth. The Wiltshire Core Strategy and emerging Wiltshire Local Plan identify planned growth and development sites, which without mitigation measures such as improved public transport, will result in increased traffic congestion.

The Core Strategy identifies a requirement for 2,010 new homes in Devizes between 2006 and 2026, with a further 490 new homes in the wider Devizes Community Area, as well as an additional 9.9 ha of land designated for employment. In addition, the emerging Local Plan proposes a requirement of 1,330 homes between 2016 and 2036. 370 homes have already been built, between 2016 and 2019, while a further 629 homes are in the pipeline (i.e. they have planning permission or are allocated for development in the Devizes Neighbourhood Plan).

Should the planned development for Devizes be confirmed in the adopted Local Plan and planning permission subsequently granted, it is forecasted that there will be a significant increase in the size of the town’s population over the next 15 years. Without intervention, this will increase the number of trips on the local and strategic road network, subsequently adding to existing congestion and air quality issues in the town

Transport Context

Travel to Work

Census travel to Work modal analysis highlights considerable dependency on the private car. The private car is the dominant mode of travel for residents, with over 71% of residents using the car for commuting purposes, while in terms of commuters heading into Devizes for work, over 72% use the car. This is slightly higher levels of car usage than the Wiltshire average (70%).

Walking is the second most popular mode for journeys to and from Devizes. Due to the size of urban Devizes (approximately a 2km radius at its furthest point between the town centre and the south-east), walking can be seen as a convenient mode of travel.

Beyond Travel to Work data, a demand survey conducted by the Devizes Development Partnership highlighted demand for other journey purposes. Respondents suggested that a rail station would offer the opportunity for improved connectivity to key leisure destinations. Two thirds of respondents said that leisure trips (days out, shopping, visiting others, etc.) would be the main purpose for participants’ primary journey by rail from/to a station in Devizes (67.3%). The most popular destinations would be travel to/from London, Newbury, Reading, and Bristol, Bath, South Wales.

Residents of Devizes predominantly work within Wiltshire, with the majority working within Devizes itself (35%) or in the surrounding towns of Trowbridge, Melksham, Marlborough, Corsham, Chippenham and Swindon. Outside of Wiltshire, some key employment locations for Devizes residents include Swindon (c. 500 people), London (c. 200 people), Bath (c. 170 people) and Bristol (c. 150 people).

For those commuting to Devizes, the range of origin locations is narrower, with 89% of workers in Devizes living elsewhere in Wiltshire.

Active travel

The town has a generally well-connected cycle network, although the majority of this is currently not fully segregated nor traffic-free. National Cycle Network (NCN) Route 4 also passes through the northern extent of Devizes along the Kennet and Avon Canal. This long-distance route between London and Fishguard passes via Reading, Bath, Bristol, Newport, Swansea, Tenby, Haverfordwest and St. David’s.

Public transport

While Devizes no longer has a rail connection, overall Wiltshire has 13 stations. The closest railway stations to Devizes are Melksham and Trowbridge, located eight miles North West and 11 miles South West of Devizes, respectively. Access to these stations by existing public transport provision (bus services) is lengthy and inconvenient. Travel times to both Melksham and Trowbridge range between 30 to 40 minutes. Services through Melksham are infrequent and, as the line is at a tangent to Devizes, are of limited use to the town,

Devizes is not particularly well connected with bus services, although infrequent and relatively slow services do connect the town directly to Melksham, Bath, Swindon and Salisbury. Buses provide an important (although often infrequent) service in connecting Devizes to outlying villages to the south and to the east, as many of the origins and destinations of commuters to and from Devizes are in the local area surrounding Devizes.

The town is generally better connected during the morning peak period particularly to local destinations. However public transport connectivity is much poorer during the off peak periods and to more significant destinations further away. Using public transport Devizes is 70 minutes from Bath, an hour from Swindon and Salisbury and 50 minutes from Westbury and Chippenham. Overall, it is clear that Devizes lacks strong connectivity to areas beyond its immediate neighbouring towns and villages which may inhibit current public transport usage.

Highway network

Given the relatively poor public transport network, the private car is generally a much quicker mode of travel to and from key destinations, including other Wiltshire towns and important commuting destinations such as Bath and Bristol. Cars are also used to access to local railway stations, such as Pewsey, Chippenham, Swindon, either as park and ride, or kiss and ride journeys. For the majority of journeys, cycling is not a viable mode choice with only a small number of key destinations within a one-hour cycle.

Devizes experiences congestion at peak periods. The most notable delays being experienced are at the intersection of the A361 and A342 to the west of Devizes, and on the A361 adjacent to the Wiltshire Police Headquarters towards the north of Devizes. It is forecast that the existing highway congestion issues will be worsened with the delivery of planned growth. As the Wiltshire Core Strategy and Local Plan Review housing and employment growth is delivered, the associated rise in travel demand will increase delays on the highway network.

Air Quality and Carbon

Due to air quality issues, from 2009, Devizes town centre has been subject to an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA).

Wiltshire Council acknowledged a climate emergency in February 2019 and the council’s aim is for Wiltshire to become carbon neutral (net zero) by 2030. Carbon reduction is also an integral theme within the Local Plan Review and Local Transport Plan (LTP3) (and is anticipated to also be a priority in the forthcoming LTP4), and is also recognised as a significant step towards the county’s recovery from COVID-19. Yet strategic public transport connections are currently limited in the Devizes Community Area, and there is no easy or quick link with the national rail network. A rail station that serves Devizes will provide an alternative, more sustainable form of transport for residents and visitors, lowering localised car dependency, and positively contributing to Wiltshire’s climate emergency plans.

Key Issues and Challenges

The analysis within the Strategic Case illustrates a number of key issues and challenges in relation to the transport connectivity in Devizes. These are set out below:

Issue 1: No rail access in Devizes: Devizes’ rail station closed in 1966, leaving the town relatively isolated in terms of rail options and therefore leaves the local community reliant on the private car. The nearest station is over 8 miles way in Melksham, and this takes 40 minutes to get to by public transport. Moreover, the current train service operating from Melksham only runs every two hours on a north-south route. There are 13 rail stations in Wiltshire; some of which serve towns with a smaller population than Devizes.

Issue 2: Poor public transport connections to key destinations: Strategic public transport connections are currently limited in the Devizes Community Area, and there is no easy or quick public transport link with the national rail network. Current public transport accessibility to important trip origins and destinations is lengthy and inconvenient. Journeys to places like Melksham, Trowbridge and Chippenham are important for employment, business and leisure purposes, although journey times by public transport to these places far exceed the equivalent journey by private car. Key towns and cities in the wider region such as Bristol, Bath and Swindon are both important commuting destinations for Devizes residents, as highlighted in the Census Travel to Work analysis, and for business, education and leisure purposes; the town’s poor public transport provision means those locations are currently difficult to reach by public transport and limit options.

Issue 3: Poor rail access constrains Devizes’ economic growth. The lack of a convenient alternative to the private car impedes economic regeneration and limits the full potential of Devizes’ tourism offer due to the lack of mode choice. The lack of rail access in Devizes is particularly important for the business community in terms of connectivity to/from key destinations, and for aspirations for sustainable tourism growth. One of the main concerns of prospective and existing companies is being able to attract employees to fill the posts on offer as Devizes is relatively isolated from other large urban conurbations. The provision of a railway station would dramatically enhance the towns connectivity to areas with a prospective pool of employees. Businesses have highlighted the lack of rail connectivity and potential employees’ ability to commute, with some having to pay relocation fees to acquire the staff they need, or risk losing out to other employers located elsewhere. The difficulty in keeping staff due to transport challenges, particularly younger staff who often do not have access to a car, is another issue raised by local businesses. Furthermore, the current lack of connectivity acts as a deterrent to businesses who might be considering Devizes as a potential location for setting up or expanding.

Issue 4: Poor rail access constrains Devizes’ tourism offer Accessing Devizes and surrounding areas including the North Wessex Downs ANOB by non-car modes can be challenging, which may deter visitors (particularly by international tourists), impeding economic regeneration plans and its burgeoning tourism economy.

Issue 5: Dependency on carbon intensive modes of travel: The lack of a convenient public transport network compounds air quality problems and runs counter to local and national decarbonisation policy. Reducing dependency on car travel is an important facet of reducing carbon emissions, and improving local air quality and can only be achieved if there are regular accessible sustainable transport options such as restoring connectivity to the rail network.

Issue 6: Highway network experiences delays: Devizes experiences delays at peak periods on its highway network which has a negative impact on connectivity, air quality and economic growth. Across Devizes and its environs, over 70% of journeys are made by private car, highlighting the convenience of this mode for travel. In Devizes and its rural hinterland however, the car may be seen as a necessity due to a lack of viable alternatives. As the congestion data shows, local roads suffer from delays, including on the A361 between Northfields and Devizes town centre and at Dunkirk Hill / Bath Road junction. A large proportion of people use cars to travel to and from Devizes, contributing to local congestion problems. This reliance on the private car produces environmental issues in terms of air quality and is detrimental to the national and local ambition to reach Net Zero, following the declaration of a Climate Emergency.

Issue 7: Accommodating planned housing growth will place further strain on the transport network. There are a number of proposals to develop new housing and deliver economic growth and regeneration in Devizes. The Wiltshire Core Strategy and the emerging Local Plan set out housing requirements and increased economic growth for the town and the wider area. The delivery of this growth will increase travel demand, which in particular will add additional trips to the highway network. It is therefore important for an infrastructure strategy to be developed with a view to mitigating the impacts of travel demand growth.

Scheme Objectives

Strategic objectives have been formed to address the identified transport issues set out above, and relate with the strategic objectives of key policy documents as well as the Restoring Your Railways guidance. The strategic objectives are centred around delivering:

Value for money that can deliver an efficient and economically viable rail service;

Sustainable economic and productivity growth by better connecting people to work, educational, health, social, and leisure facilities;

Environmental improvements by reducing the reliance of the private car;

Contributing to improving Wiltshire’s connectivity between its communities; and

Devizes as a sub-regional significant economic centre.

Scheme-specific objectives build on the strategic objectives and the identified transport issues, and have been informed by engagement previously undertaken between the Devizes Development Partnership, Wiltshire Council and Network Rail. The scheme objectives are as follows:

Improve connectivity across the heart of Wiltshire to increase access to employment and education opportunities, supporting the levelling up of relatively isolated rural communities.

Positively contribute to the Climate Emergency and help to reduce air quality issues through promoting modal shift to lower carbon travel.

Increase the capacity of Devizes’ transport network to deliver planned residential growth, support economic regeneration and the growth of tourism under the levelling up agenda.

Deliver an efficient, economically viable rail service that maximises Value for Money.

Improve public transport connectivity and reduce journey times to and from Devizes to ensure communities are better connected.

Provide efficient access to and from key locations in the region to attract inward investment in economic activity.

Devizes Gateway Option Development

Devizes Gateway has been identified as a means for overcoming the issues identified above, meeting the objectives. A well-connected station, even located outside of the town centre, could provide many residents with easier access to the rail network improving their ability to reach a range of destinations by public transport. A survey conducted by the Devizes Development Partnership (DDP) identified that 12.5% of residents would expect to use the new railway station for commuting purposes.

Proposed Station Sites

A number of sites on the Berks and Hants Line have been identified as being suitable for a new station serving Devizes. The two main options are:

Lydeway Site – Approx 1km north of Wedhampton village, adjacent to Lydeway Field airfield, and

Lavington Site – Where the Reading to Taunton line crosses the A360, approximately 2km north of West Lavington.

At either location it is proposed to build a relatively basic station consisting of two 210m platforms, a pedestrian overbridge (and potentially the inclusion of lifts), simple bus stop style waiting areas and unmanned ticket machines. The station would also contain a 100-space car park and a bus and taxi rank.

Detailed site surveys have not been undertaken within this study, and further detailed design work would be required as the scheme develops to refine the exact design of the station. However at this early stage of an SOC, it would appear credible to be able to build a new station and the necessary access facilities at either of the identified sites at Lydeway or Lavington.

In terms of accessibility, the Lydeway site is slightly closer to the town and thus offers quicker journey times to Devizes town centre. Access to Lavington from Devizes is much poorer on the A360, particularly through Potterne, than access to Lydeway on the A342. Although further from Devizes, the Lavington site is located close to surrounding villages and therefore has a slightly larger catchment area in its immediate vicinity than the Lydeway site that has very little housing in the immediate vicinity.

To be accessible by public transport, both station sites would require the provision of a shuttle bus running between the station site and Devizes town centre. It would also be expected to be linked into other local bus services serving the wider environs. This study has not assessed the costs or revenues of providing such a bus service.

Proposed Rail Service

A high-level review has been undertaken to assess the operational feasibility of providing a regular service at Devizes Gateway station, offering direct trains eastwards to Reading and London, and westwards to Westbury and, in some options, Taunton and Exeter.

The following options for serving Devizes Gateway were considered:

Providing an hourly stopping service at Devizes Gateway. This would require extending the Paddington – Bedwyn service to Westbury (requiring one additional unit), or possibly Frome (requiring two additional units).

Providing 2-hourly semi fast service at Devizes Gateway. This would require stopping the existing semi-fast services to Exeter / Paignton / Plymouth at Devizes Gateway.

Providing an hourly semi-fast service at Devizes Gateway. This would require increasing the frequency of the existing semi-fast service to an hourly service. This is a long term aspiration of GWR.

Providing an hourly stopping service to a new branch line to Devizes, or to a bay platform at Devizes Gateway. This would require the Paddington – Bedwyn service to be extended to Devizes / Devizes Gateway (requiring one additional unit). No westward connectivity would be provided.

The review concluded that providing rail services at Devizes Gateway within the constraints of the current network will be operationally challenging, and service provision must be considered alongside the route wide constraints and opportunities. The most viable options were found to be:

To provide an hourly stopping service by extending the Paddington – Bedwyn service to Westbury with calls at Pewsey and Devizes Gateway. To ensure that the extended Bedwyn services do not impact of other passenger and freight services using the Great Western Main Line, this option would require construction of a fourth platform at Westbury (which is already a rail industry aspiration), and conversion of the turnback siding at Bedwyn into an Up Passenger Loop. This will ensure that future freight growth can be accommodated, although meeting Network Rail’s high growth freight forecast beyond 2033/4 is likely to be challenging, noting that there a number of constraints to further freight growth under the high growth scenario that are much more significant than those imposed by the operation of services to Devizes. In the meantime it may be that the very heaviest freight services may require the use of a more powerful locomotive than a single class 59 in order to maintain network capacity. This option would require the use of one additional class 800 unit, which at the moment can be provided from within GWR’s current fleet.

To provide a 2-hourly semi-fast service by increasing the frequency of the Berks & Hants line semi-fast service to hourly (i.e. extending the 2-hourly Paddington – Newbury shuttle service to Taunton, which is already an aspiration of GWR) with a call at Devizes Gateway in the new service. The feasibility of introducing this service was not assessed as part of this report as it is already a rail industry aspiration irrespective of proposals to open Devizes Gateway station. Whilst additional rolling stock would be required to operate this service, there is not expected to be any further impact on route capacity from calling the service at Devizes Gateway.

These service options could be introduced individually or in combination. Introducing both options would maximise travel opportunities to and from Devizes Gateway, with frequent local services as well as lower frequency, limited-stop long-distance services to London, Reading and Taunton. They also offer wider benefits to the Berks & Hants line.

Network Rail will be reviewing the role and requirements of Westbury station, and other potential capacity enhancements in its Strategic Study for this western rail corridor. This will also consider likely increases in freight traffic to service national infrastructure projects such as HS2, and the potential for extending electrification from Newbury further West to meet the needs of both passenger and freight operators.

Discussion based on the options above has been undertaken collaboratively with GWR and Network Rail. However, further collaborative work to develop a preferred option, that best integrates with wider enhancements and service improvements across the region, would be needed at the next stage of the scheme’s development.

While the study has made a high level assessment of the costs of undertaking the wider infrastructure enhancements at Westbury and Bedwyn necessary to deliver a train service to Devizes, the wider benefits such infrastructure can provide the region in terms of capacity, journey times or reliability and resilience has not been assessed.

Alternative Options

An alternative option to developing Devizes Gateway would be to enhance bus connections to existing local rail stations which are currently poor, with long journey times and low frequency. Providing an express shuttle bus service to key local stations, such as Pewsey would offer significant connectivity benefits to large parts of the town. While bus links from Devizes to existing stations will always take longer than a bus links to Devizes Gateway, the faster and higher frequency rail service from those stations can in some cases more than compensate for the increased journey times. This study has not undertaken a detailed assessment of these alternative options, but there may be a case for improved bus connections regardless of the case for Devizes Gateway, recognizing that bus and rail are often serving different types of market.

Re-introducing a branch line into Devizes itself is very difficult as much of the old formation has been built over within Devizes. The delivery of this option requires construction of several kilometres of new railway to get to the edge of Devizes, and this is likely to be costly and face significant deliverability challenges. Furthermore, this option would not deliver the desired east-west connectivity or interchange at Westbury with north-south services.

Economic Case

In line with the latest DfT and HM Treasury guidance, the economic case has been assessed proportionately to the early stage of the scheme and the requirements of the Strategic Outline Case. As such detailed cost benefit analysis has not been undertaken. Instead analysis has been undertaken of the key drivers of the business case, namely demand, journey time savings, revenues and costs, to establish the likely value for money of the scheme and its sensitivity to key assumptions.

HM Treasury green book guidance emphasises that particularly at this early stage of the scheme, an articulation of the strategic benefits and the drivers of those benefits, is more important than a monetised cost benefit ratio, which for various reasons, is both limited in scope and subject to both a high degree of uncertainty.

Connectivity and journey time analysis

Journey time analysis was undertaken to show the impact on journey times of a new Gateway Station. The analysis shows that the provision of a Devizes Gateway Station would offer significant public transport connectivity improvements to those areas that can reached be directly from rail services calling at Devizes. This means that journeys with the highest time savings will be those taken wholly by public transport to or from Devizes to locations directly on the Great Western Reading to Taunton Main Line such as Newbury, Reading, London, Westbury, Frome, Taunton and Exeter.

This improvement in connectivity to the South East offers opportunities for access to key nodes of employment, as well as providing a long-term strategic connection to long distance rail services from Reading as well as the proposed Old Oak Common HS2 station which would provide this area of Wiltshire strong long-distance connectivity across England.

Journeys to locations that are not served by direct trains from Devizes Gateway, such as Bath, Bristol, Chippenham and Swindon, and which all would require at least one change of train, are unlikely to be any quicker via Devizes Gateway for most people within Devizes than simply using the existing bus-based options. However, for those living nearer to the proposed station sites, journeys would become quicker albeit that this market is relatively small.

For those users with access to a car or taxi, and who can therefore drive to alternative local stations in the area, and either park or get dropped off, the journey time saving becomes more marginal. While the drive to alternative stations may take slightly longer, the usually better rail service from those stations with more frequent services running directly to their destination, often more than offsets any gains that may be realised from the shorter drive to Devizes Gateway.

In summary, it would seem that the most likely users of Devizes Gateway are users without access to a car (which includes anyone arriving at Devizes as a destination) who are travelling to or from London, Reading and Newbury in the East, and Westbury, Frome, Taunton and Exeter in the South West. These journeys are all quite long distance which implies that they would not be used for regular commuting but are more likely to be for business or leisure activities.

While the long term impact of covid-19 on travel patterns and behaviours is still very uncertain, it may be that the impact of home working continues to allow many people to live and work in locations that would not be considered possible under a 5 day a week commute. This may in turn mean that the demand for long distance journeys increases, as people travelling to work or undertake business in a much wider variety of locations.

Finally, it is clear that for the station to succeed well-timed interchanging bus service from Devizes Market Place to the station is essential. Without such a shuttle bus the public transport accessibility would be very poor, and the station would be limited to either those with a car, for whom other stations may be more attractive, or the small number who live within the immediate vicinity of the station.

	Scenario	Public Transport only	Kiss-and-ride / Park-and-ride	Car-only
To London (Reading, and Newbury will experience similar journey time savings)	Without scheme	124	79	110

With scheme	93	77	110

Saving	31	2	0
To Bristol	Without scheme	85	61	55

With scheme	97	79	55

Saving	-12	-18	0
To Bath	Without scheme	63	42	35

With scheme	77	59	35

Saving	-14	-17	0
To Swindon	Without scheme	58	39	30

With scheme	110	92	30

Saving	-52	-53	0
To Trowbridge	Without scheme	41	25	20

With scheme	55	37	20

Saving	-14	-12	0
To Westbury (Depending on the service provision Frome, Taunton and Exeter will experience similar journey time savings)	Without scheme	50	27	22

With scheme	34	16	22

Saving	16	11	0

Demand analysis

It has not been possible to undertake an accurate assessment of the likely demand for a new station at Devizes Gateway, as an appropriate demand model of the study area is not currently available. Instead high-level analysis has been undertaken by comparing the demand and trip rates at other local stations and applying these trip rates to the catchment area of Devizes. However, this trip rate approach has a number of significant limitations that may result in these demand forecasts being an overestimate of demand.

The trip rate analysis takes no account of the train service provided by that station. Devizes is unlikely to be served by more than three train per hour, and that only allow direct connections to Westbury westbound, and Pewsey, Newbury, Reading and London eastbound. This is a much lower frequency and a much smaller set of destinations than other stations in the region.

The trip rate analysis is based on catchment areas defined by car and public transport journey times. In practice the size and shape of station catchment areas are also impacted by the accessibility of alternative stations, and the differing fares and train services from those alternative stations.

The trip rate analysis does not allow for trip substitution. Many residents of Devizes will already be making rail journeys from existing stations. A significant proportion of any demand at Devizes is therefore likely to be journeys that would otherwise have been made from an alternative station.

The trip rate analysis takes no account of car availability. The demand journey time analysis shows that for those who access the rail network by car, Devizes Gateway may not provide significant journey time savings compared to driving to alternative stations.

The trip rate analysis takes no account of the sort of journeys people are making from the station, with shorter distance journeys to local destinations likely to be made more frequently, either for commuting, education or other reasons, than longer distance trips to destinations further away. It is likely that users of Devizes will be mainly longer distance users to direct destinations on the GWR network such as London.

The trip rate analysis takes no account of fare. It may be that different fare structures and distances incentivise trips to different locations. For instance it is likely that a trip to London from Pewsey will have a lower fare than one from Devizes, which may encourage someone to choose to drive to Pewsey station rather than drive to Devizes station.

For these reasons it is not possible to provide an accurate forecast of demand at this stage of the study. By itself, the trip rate analysis provides a median benchmark demand for Devizes of around 350,000 users per year, which is more than the demand currently seen at Pewsey (270,000 users) but less than at Westbury (560,000).

Indicator	Westbury	Pewsey	Devizes
Population (Built up area/ Community area)	17,547	3,797	17,148 33,824
Rail services	Exeter-Reading; Salisbury-Bath/Swindon	Exeter-Reading	Westbury-Reading
Regularity of services	2 per hour; 2/3 per hour	Every 2 hours	Every hour
Station location	Majority of the town within 2 miles of the station	Majority of the town within 1 mile of the station	Majority of town between 1.8 miles and 4 miles from the station
Station usage	557,756 per year	269,352 per year	350,000 per year

Rail demand in the region has experienced significant growth over the last 20 years. While there is currently considerable uncertainty around short term rail demand, it seems plausible to imagine that over the longer-term demand for rail travel is likely to continue to increase. The need to decarbonise travel and the likely increase in home-based tourism, day trips and short breaks will also contribute to an increase in rail travel long term.

Due to the uncertainty in demand the appraisal of the station has been tested against a wide range of demand scenarios.

Scheme Costs

The construction costs of a new station at the Lydeway site are estimated to be £19.1m (in Q2 2021 prices) without any risk, contingency or optimism bias allowance. This estimate has not been based on detailed designs or site survey, but as commensurate with this early stage study has been based on prices using high-level itemised costings as shown below.

DfT’s TAG guidance sets out that for a project at this early stage of development that an optimism bias uplift of 56% should be applied to the net capital costs, which therefore increases the capital cost estimates to £29.7m in 2021 prices.

Group	Elements	Devizes Station £ million	Bedwyn Loop £ million	Westbury Platform £ million
Direct Construction Works	Railway Control Systems	0.1	0.8	1.2

Electric Power and Plant	0.2	0.1	0.1

Permanent Way / Track.	0.1	0.8	0.9

Telecommunication Systems	0.6	0.1	0.2

Buildings and Property	1.2	0.0	0.0

Civil Engineering	8.4	1.6	0.5

Enabling Works	0.3	0.1	0.1
Indirect Construction Costs	Preliminaries	3.6	1.1	1.0

Contractor Overheads and Profit	1.3	0.4	0.4
Development and Other Costs	Project Design Team Fees	1.3	0.5	0.5

NR Project Management Team Fees	1.2	0.4	0.4

Other Project Development (excluding Land Cost and compensation costs)	0.6	0.3	0.2

Land cost	0.2	0.1	0.0
Point Estimate (Construction + Development cost) excluding contingency and risk allowance	19.1	6.3	5.5
Capital costs including 56% Optimism Bias	29.7	9.8	8.6

Additional capital costs of £6.3m and £5.5m (in Q2 2021 prices) without any risk, contingency or optimism bias allowance have been estimated for providing a loop at Bedwyn and a new terminating platform at Westbury respectively, which is the minimum infrastructure required to support the provision of an hourly train service by extension of the Bedwyn terminating services. Operating costs have been provided by GWR and have been estimated at £1.75m per annum. This excludes train leasing or procurement costs on the basis the service can be provided using the existing GWR feet.

Economic Appraisal

The approach to assessing the Economic Case is consistent with DfT’s Restoring Your Railway (Beeching) Ideas Fund guidance, and considers the DfT’s TAG, Business Case and Value for Money guidance, and is a proportionate assessment at this stage of the scheme’s development.

The Economic Case analysis shows that based upon a high-level set of baseline assumptions around demand, revenue and journey time savings the scheme is likely to be low value for money if the costs of the works at Bedwyn and Westbury are excluded and poor value for money if the costs of this associated infrastructure is included, although it is worth noting that there are a variety of benefits not being captured by the appraisal, such as the benefits to users of other stations.

Sensitivity testing shows that the appraisal is very sensitive to key assumptions around demand and revenue. This shows that the appraisal is particularly sensitive to the demand assumptions, which at this stage have been estimated by relatively simplistic trip rate analysis that is subject to high levels of uncertainty. Demand not only drive user benefits (assumed to be an average of 16 minutes per person), but also drives revenue (assumed to be £9 per person), and together with the gearing effect of the revenue appearing on the denominator of the BCR, this can mean different assumptions around demand can have a significant impact on the BCR. A 20% reduction in forecast demand can move the scheme from low to poor value for money, while a 20% increase in forecast demand can move the scheme to very high.

Separately, the SWLEP Rail Strategy identified that Devizes Gateway station would have an GVA of £6.56m per year and that an extension of the Bedwyn service to Westbury would have a GVA of £5.85m pa.

It is important to note however that while the BCR is an important element of the business case, the case or not for investing in the scheme should not be reliant upon it. In November 2020, the Treasury published a review of its appraisal guidance known as the Green Book, to ensure that it was able meet the Government’s wider policy objectives around levelling up and decarbonisation. The review found that BCRs by themselves may not always be aligned to the decision makers’ wider policy objectives, and can instead focus on those benefits that it is easy to put a monetary value upon. The new guidance makes clear that the assessment of value for money is broader than the BCR alone, and that it should assess all the relevant costs and benefits to society, not just narrowly economic ones.

The Green Book review has recommended new guidance that amongst other things puts additional emphasis on the assessment of transformative impacts, the analysis of place-based impacts, and analysis of differential impacts. The review also identifies a number of the priority outcomes that are strongly focused on levelling up including:

An outcome to raise productivity and empower places so that everyone can benefit from levelling up;

An outcome to level up education standards: so that children and young people in every part of the country are prepared with the knowledge, skills and qualifications they need; and

Maximise employment across the country to aid economic recovery following Covid-19.

Any case for investment, is therefore likely to be made on the potential wider transformative impacts the scheme would have on a region. Although these impacts can be quite hard to measure and quantify using standard appraisal approaches, it is still appropriate for decision makers to consider these elements with the overall context of value for money.

As the scheme further develops, the next stage of a business case would be to develop a demand model and appraisal framework that can undertake a more detailed economic appraisal. In particular, the availability of such a model would help sift options to help determine exactly which option, service frequency and destinations provide the largest benefits per pound of investment. Further work to better understand the potential wider impacts of the scheme on homes and jobs is also recommended.

Financial Case

The capital costs for delivering a new station are estimated to be £29.7m in 2021 prices, which includes a 56% uplift in optimism bias. Additional costs of £18.3m including optimism bias are required to deliver associated infrastructure at Bedwyn and Westbury that would be needed to support an hourly service pattern.

Annual operating costs for both the station and the extended train services have been estimated by GWR to be £1.7m per annum. Offsetting this would be increased revenue, not just from users of Devizes, but also from users of Pewsey and Westbury station who would also see benefits from increased service frequencies. A detailed assessment of the revenue forecasts has not been undertaken but under certain assumptions it is plausible that revenue generated per annum is larger than the operating costs.

It is important to note that at this stage of the study no estimate has been made of:

Any additional rolling stock capital or lease costs. At this stage GWR anticipate the service extension can be provided within the existing fleet.

The annual operating costs needed to operate a shuttle bus to the station, including the procurement of suitable vehicles. No estimate has been made either of any revenue that might be raised from such a service, and which would be expected to wholly or partly offset these operating costs.

The document ‘Restoring Your Railway: Guidance on funding expectations’ issued by the DfT on 16 July 2021 sets out consistent funding expectations for RYR schemes that continue development through the programme. In terms of the Development Stage, the document states that the DfT will fund up to 100% of further development costs for successful schemes, supporting schemes to develop up to FBC/Final Investment Decision. It is made clear, however, that local financial contributions or work in kind are encouraged and that any contributions made through the development stage will be taken into account when considering whether a scheme should proceed to delivery.

In the event that the proposal progresses beyond the SOBC stage, and in view of the above, Wiltshire Council will liaise with relevant partners such as the SWLEP, train operating companies, community rail partnerships and others to explore local funding contribution opportunities to support the development of the OBC. In this regard, Devizes Town Council has already committed £34,000 to the development of the OBC. The ambition would be to secure up to a 15% third-party local contribution.

In terms of the Delivery stage, the document referred to above states that the DfT will consider what level of local contribution has been sourced by the promoter when assessing an FBC and considering whether a scheme should proceed to delivery. It also states that 15-25% of the costs of transport infrastructure projects are routinely sourced from local contributions although it is appreciated that this may not be possible in all areas. At this stage it is anticipated that the local contribution for delivery of Devizes Gateway could come from Wiltshire Council’s Local Transport Plan Integrated Block and development-related Section 106 and Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) funding. Additional funding sources that will be explored include the Levelling-Up Fund and the SWLEP’s Growing Places Infrastructure Fund (GPIF).

Commercial Case

Decisions regarding the preferred procurement strategy will be made at Outline Business Case stage, once the requirements of the proposed scheme have been identified with greater certainty. The following key points will be considered:

Overall scope of works required (i.e. highway construction, landscaping, rail infrastructure);

Physical scale and location of works;

Land assembly process;

Utilities diversions, if required; and

Need for complex engineering design and environmental designation associated with the Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB), if required.

Consideration will be given to traditional procurement versus alternative approaches such as Design and Build, and the relative merits of letting a single contract or a series of contracts.

Management Case

The management approach proposed for scheme is proportionate to the overall scheme cost, its deliverability and the level of risk.

A Project Board will be established, comprising of senior Council representatives, to oversee delivery of the scheme. A Senior Responsible Owner, Project Director and Project Manager will be appointed, with the Project Manager reporting to the Project Board.

A risk register has been created and will be reviewed and updated on a regular basis, with risk owners appointed as appropriate to the type of risk and the stage of the scheme when the risk is realised. Public and key stakeholders will be informed of project progress as per the communications plan and encouraged to give feedback during the design process.

The delivery of the scheme will benefit from Wiltshire Council’s track record of successfully delivering major schemes. Wiltshire Council has an established service delivery team structure and process.

Indicative project milestones (dependent on funding) are listed in the following table:

Milestone	Date
Further business case development: scheme development, modelling, construction methodology, finance and funding options	2022-2023
Planning, design, approval and procurement	2023-2025
Construction and testing	2025-2027
Operation	2027

Introduction

Context for the study

The UK Government has an ambition to ‘level up’ areas in the South West and other parts of the country whose economy has fallen behind London and the South East, such that every part of the nation can be equally prosperous. The £4.8 billion fund will be invested in local projects, such as regeneration and transport, to ensure that the government invests in communities across the UK.

Recognising the role and importance of an effective, efficient, and sustainable transport network in supporting economic growth, wellbeing, health, and the environment, this ‘levelling up’ ambition has placed a spotlight on improving transport infrastructure across areas of the country that suffer from poor connectivity.

One aspect of this is a renewed interest in the potential for reopening closed railway lines and stations as a means of improving accessibility to communities long cut off from the rail network. The Government set up the £500m Restoring your Railways Fund to help restore connectivity for isolated communities, to support local economies, help meet decarbonisation targets, and help level up the country to help provide equal opportunities for all.

For all of these reasons, in January 2020 the Secretary for State for Transport, the Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP, announced the establishment of a £500m Restoring Your Railway fund with the specific purpose of re-opening closed railways and stations. This fund included the facility for local authorities and other promoters to submit early stage proposals for reopening lines and stations, with successful applicants receiving grants to undertake the development of early stage feasibility and business case work.

Wiltshire Council, together with the Devizes Development Partnership (DDP) , successfully applied to the Restoring Your Railway Ideas Fund to undertake a feasibility study for the opening of a new station serving Devizes and its environs, and hence restoring rail access to a town which lost its original railway station 55 years ago.

In early 2021, Atkins were appointed by Wiltshire Council to undertake an early stage feasibility and business case assessment of the scheme. The key aim is to present an outline Strategic Outline Case (SOC) consistent with the Restoring Your Railway fund guidance, that can establish whether:

Restoring rail connectivity is likely to be a strategic fit with local and national policy;

There is a demonstrated case or need for intervention; and

Reopening the station is technically feasible and economically viable.

This report and its associated appendices represent the outcomes of this study.

Description of the scheme

The original Devizes Station, located to the west of the town centre near the site of Devizes Castle, was once part of the Devizes Branch that diverged from the Reading-Taunton line west of Pewsey and ran via Devizes to a junction with the Swindon-Westbury route at Holt.

Due to limited passenger demand, Devizes Station and the Branch Line closed in April 1966 as per the recommendations of the 1963 Reshaping of British Railway (Beeching) Report. Demand was not encouraged by the sparse service; pre-closure, there were only five trains eastbound. Figure 1-1 displays the location of the disused, but largely intact, Devizes Branch Line route that at one stage had intermediate stations at Staverton, Holt Junction, Semington, Seend, Bromham and Rowde, Devizes, Pans Lane, Patney and Chirton, Woodbrough and Manningford.

At present, little remains of the original station at Devizes. Due to the expansion of the market town and parts of the Branch Line having been sold, reinstating the Branch Line and providing a station within Devizes would not be an easy undertaking. It is therefore proposed to open a new station known as Devizes Gateway Station on the Berks and Hants Railway Line (Paddington-Westbury-West of England) that passes approximately four miles south / south-east of Devizes. Alongside understanding the scheme’s strategic fit with policy, the purpose of this SOC is to undertake rail operational feasibility assessment, high-level costing and demand forecasting with a view to developing a viable rail scheme.

While the exact location and service provision for the new station is still yet to be determined, it would be situated between the existing Pewsey and Westbury stations in the vicinity of Devizes, and served by an extension of the existing Paddington Bedwyn services, adding a station call to the semi-fast Paddington Exeter service or a combination of both. Given that a new station on the Berks and Hants route would not be located within the town of Devizes itself, providing effective public transport and car parking facilities for the new station would form an important complementary element of the proposed scheme.

Figure 1-1 - Existing and closed railway lines and stations in Devizes and surrounding areas

Aims of this study

The main aim of this study is to present a Strategic Outline Case (SOC) for reopening a station for Devizes, in line with requirements of the Department for Transport’s (DfT) RYR guidance. This guidance identifies that the SOC is the first step in a three-stage process for developing a business case. The primary aim of this SOC is to identify the basic feasibility of the scheme from an engineering, operational and business case point of view. A particular focus of the SOC is to present a Strategic Case that identifies the objectives of the scheme and assesses how different options, including alternative modes, might meet those objectives.

The study aims to assess the feasibility of the following options:

A new station on the Berks & Hants line serving Devizes with associated links to the town. The study includes assessment of two different options and examines site considerations, particularly with regard to access, rail operations and how the station might be served by rail services, costs, demand, and likely value for money. Analysis of these options forms the main focus of the options assessment.

Alternative improvements for access to the rail network such as improving the accessibility of existing stations.

Alternative improvements for meeting the stated objectives such as improvements to the provision of bus or active travel modes.

The key decision being sought at the SOC stage is determining whether any of these options are worthy of further study and funding. If so, then the next stage of the scheme’s development would be to undertake a more detailed assessment of the costs and benefits of different options, that would identify and develop a design for a single preferred option. This would then form the second business case stage - an Outline Business Case (OBC). Following further detailed scheme design and consultation of the preferred option, the final stage would be a Full Business Case (FBC), from which a final decision can be effectively taken on whether to fund and deliver the project.

In accordance with the DfT guidance, the SOC and hence this report is structured around the examination of five key elements which constitute a business case:

The Strategic Case: The Strategic Case sets out the context of the scheme, the rationale for why it is needed, the objectives and the alignment of these with local national and policy, and a high-level assessment of the different options.

The Economic Case: The Economic Case sets out the costs and benefits of a preferred option and hence the likely value for money that the scheme can provide.

The Financial Case: The Financial Case outlines the delivery partners and their procurement strategy, as well as the statutory and other regulatory processes which need to be managed.

The Commercial Case: The Commercial Case outlines the delivery partners and their procurement strategy, as well as the statutory and other regulatory processes which need to be managed.

The Management Case: The Management Case outlines the appropriate governance structure for the delivery partners, the high-level project programme with key dependencies and milestones, and the project programme.

As per DfT’s Transport Business Case Guidance, the Strategic Outline Case forms the first stage in a three stage process, with an investment decision point following each stage. Further stages would be developed dependent on the conclusions of this stage 1 study.

Figure 1-2 – DfT Transport Business Case Process

Strategic Case

Introduction

The Strategic Case sets out the ‘case for change’, by explaining the rationale for making an investment and presenting evidence on the strategic policy fit of the proposed scheme. It also sets out the scheme options under consideration.

On this basis the Strategic Case is structured as follows:

Alignment of the SOC with local and national policies (Section 2.2);

The context for the scheme in terms of background information on the sub-region’s geography, socio-demographics, and transport connectivity (Section 2.3);

The problems identified in the area that might be resolved by the scheme (Section 2.4);

A summary of the rationale for change (Section 2.5);

The strategic objectives for the scheme building on the identified problems and rationale for change (Section 2.6);

A logic map which links the challenges identified to the strategic objectives and the scheme’s outputs and outcomes (Section 2.7);

Evidence of support for the scheme (Section 2.8);

A description of the different options under consideration (Section 2.9);

The risks, constraints and dependencies associated with delivering the scheme (Section 2.10);

An assessment of those options against the scheme’s objectives (Section 2.11); and

Conclusions to the Strategic Case (Section 2.12).

Policy Context

In November 2020 the Government published the National Infrastructure Strategy which states ‘Levelling up the whole of the UK’ as a key objective. The strategy aims to use infrastructure investment to unite and level up the UK, delivering a stronger Union, thriving regions, enable cities to reach their full potential, and revitalise towns and communities. To deliver this, investments are being enabled across the country, prioritising those areas that have received less support than in the past.

‘Decarbonising the economy and adapting to climate change’ is another key element of the National Infrastructure Strategy. As set out in the Prime Minister’s Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution, infrastructure investment is fundamental to delivering net zero emissions by 2050. The government intends to create jobs and support the levelling up agenda by ensuring key industrial areas are at the heart of the transition to net zero.

Additionally, in March 2020 the Government issued the ‘Decarbonising Transport: Setting the Challenge’ consultation document. In turn, Network Rail aligned its activities and strategic priorities in support of delivering a ‘net zero’ transport system.

Both existing and emerging policies at a national and local level demonstrate a strong commitment towards improving transport connectivity and investing in public transport. Table 2-1 sets out the relevant policies and aims for this SOC.

Table 2-1 - Alignment of the scheme with national and local policy

	Relevant policy	Context / relevant objectives
National Policy	National Infrastructure Strategy HM Treasury	Key objective Levelling up the whole of the UK. The strategy aims to use infrastructure investment to unite and level up the UK, delivering a stronger Union, thriving regions, enable cities to reach their full potential, and revitalise towns and communities. Decarbonising the economy and adapting to climate change is another key element of the Strategy. As set out in the Prime Minister’s Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution, infrastructure investment is fundamental to delivering net zero emissions by 2050. The government intends to create jobs and support the levelling up agenda by ensuring key industrial areas are at the heart of the transition to net zero.

Decarbonising Transport: Setting the Challenge DfT	Six strategic priorities for the Transport Decarbonisation Plan, to deliver a vision of a net zero transport system: Accelerating modal shift to public and active transport. Decarbonisation of road vehicles. Decarbonising how we get our goods. Place-based solutions. UK as a hub for green transport technology and innovation. Reducing carbon in a global economy.

Transport Investment Strategy DfT	Strategic Objectives Creating a more reliable, less congested and better-connected transport network that works for the users who rely on it. Building a stronger, more balanced economy by enhancing productivity and responding to local growth priorities. Enhancing our global competitiveness by making Britain a more attractive place to trade and invest. Supporting the creation of new housing.
Regional Policy	Strategic Economic Plan Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership	Strategic Objective 2: Transport We need a well-connected, reliable and resilient transport system to support economic and planned development growth at key locations: Deliver key road junction and infrastructure improvements to support economic and planned development growth Deliver rail capacity and connectivity improvements to support economic growth and help realise improved travel opportunities.

Swindon and Wiltshire Rail Strategy Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership	The Swindon and Wiltshire Rail Strategy proposes a package of four recommendations for the Berks & Hants Line that together enhances access to the rail network and improves the quality of services across the SWLEP’s region. A new station serving Devizes is one of the recommendations. Initial options assessment indicates that a new station in Devizes could have an additional Gross Added Value (GVA) benefit of approximately £6.56 million per annum.

Strategic Transport Plan (2020-2025) Western Gateway Sub-national Transport Body	Economic Objectives Ensure effective access of labour markets. Enable greater integration between employment clusters. Improve North-South connectivity. Environmental Objectives Decarbonisation of the strategic transport network. Adoption of electrification and/or use alternative fuels to enable fossil-fuel-free transport. Improve air quality. Social Objectives Influence the sustainable delivery of new homes and employment opportunities. Support multi-modal travel options within travel to work areas. Improve transport & digital connectivity to reduce poverty and deprivation

Western Gateway Rail Strategy Western Gateway Sub-national Transport Body	Devizes rail station is listed in the delivery plan of the WGSTB’s Rail Strategy, highlighted as an identified intervention. The strategy documents that the scheme was successful in securing investment from DfT’s Restoring Your Railway fund. It is considered that Devizes rail station can contribute towards the following key themes of the Rail Strategy: Key Themes 1. Choice: Make rail the mode of choice across the Western Gateway. 2. Decarbonisation: Enable rail to contribute more actively towards the overall decarbonisation of the Western Gateway region. 3. Social Mobility: Provide equal journey opportunities by rail for all residents of the Western Gateway by improving access to stations, multi-modal interchange, and affordable rail travel. 4. Productivity: Enable rail to contribute more actively to improvements in productivity across Western Gateway. 5. Growth: Facilitate sustainable growth across Western Gateway through better connecting development to rail and making sure the rail network is resilient to change.
Local Policy	Local Transport Plan 3 (2011-2026) Wiltshire Council	Goal: Support Economic Growth SO1: To support and help improve the vitality, viability and resilience of Wiltshire’s economy and market towns. SO4 To minimise traffic delays and disruption and improve journey time reliability on key routes. SO6 To make the best use of the existing infrastructure through effective design, management and maintenance. SO10 To encourage the efficient and sustainable distribution of freight in Wiltshire. SO12 To support planned growth in Wiltshire and ensure that new developments adequately provide for their sustainable transport requirements and mitigate their traffic impacts. SO16 To improve the resilience of the transport system. Public Transport Increase rail connectivity through the provision of bus-rail links and assist with the implementation of some new stations.

Wiltshire Core Strategy Wiltshire Council	Strategic Objectives Deliver a thriving economy Providing everyone with access to a decent, affordable home Helping to build resilient communities Ensuring that adequate infrastructure is in place to support our communities Core Policy 12: Devizes Area Strategy The Devizes Area Strategy recognises that there is a long-term aspiration to secure a railway station for the town at either Lydeway or Lavington. Core Policy 60: Sustainable Transport Reduce the need to travel, particularly by the private car, and promote the use of sustainable transport methods.

Wiltshire Local Plan Review Wiltshire Council	Emerging Spatial Strategy Sets the housing requirement for the plan period of 2016 to 2036 across the county, its Housing Market Areas (HMA), and its settlements. Public consultation highlighted that poor air quality is seen as an issue and a constraint for Devizes Planning for Devizes The Core Strategy (2006-2026) identified a requirement for 2,010 homes while the emerging Local Plan proposes a requirement of 1,330 homes (2016-2036). When the number of homes built and in the pipeline is deducted it leaves 330 homes to be accommodated to 2036. Draft priorities relevant to this SOC include: Development should contribute towards the improvement of air quality and support the AQMA. Deliver jobs to maintain a buoyant local economy in Devizes. Encourage town centre and tourism-led regeneration. Ensure new development is well connected to the town centre to encourage the use of sustainable transport methods. The lack of a rail station and the presence of peak hour delays on the road network are highlighted as issues in its Settlement Profile.
	Wiltshire’s Climate Emergency Wiltshire Council	Wiltshire Council acknowledged a climate emergency in February 2019 and the council’s aim is for Wiltshire to become carbon neutral (net zero) by 2030. See Section 2.3.5 for further commentary.

Context for the Scheme

This section presents the context for the scheme by assessing the historic, current, and future geographic, socio-economic and transport context of the Devizes study area.

Geographical Context

Devizes is a market town located in the centre of Wiltshire, and its Built-Up Area has an estimated population of 19,097 . Devizes is surrounded by a number of smaller settlements including Bromham, Rowde, Bishops Cannings, Etchilhampton, Urchfont, Market Lavington, West Lavington, Great Cheverell, Erlestoke, Marston, Worton and Potterne, which together represent the ‘Devizes Community Area’ (see the green area in Figure 2-1). The Community Area has an estimated population of 34,0007 and forms the study area for this SOC.

Figure 2-1 – Scheme study area (light green)

Devizes is located at the crossroads of the A361 and A342 which provide highway links to Chippenham, Swindon and the M4. Figure 2-2 outlines the existing highway and rail network within Wiltshire and Devizes’s level of connectivity to the network. A number of principal roads pass through Devizes, connecting the town to other key locations in Wiltshire:

A342 – Diverges from the A4 to the east of Chippenham, heading south east through Devizes and connecting to the A303 near Andover. Congestion at the junctions of the A342 in Devizes is one of the principal reasons why Devizes has an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA);

A361 – From Beckhampton to Taunton. Links Devizes to Trowbridge and Frome to the south west; and

A360 – From Devizes to Salisbury travelling across Salisbury Plain, connecting to the A303 near Stonehenge. Congestion is an issue on the A360, particularly in Potterne, West Lavington and on the approaches to Salisbury.

Devizes is the largest town in Wiltshire not served directly by a rail line, with the closest railway stations being at Melksham (with a limited train service) and Trowbridge to the west, and Pewsey to the east. The Reading to Taunton line which diverges from the Great Western Main Line at Reading and travels south west through Wiltshire via stations at Pewsey and Westbury passes within 3 miles of Devizes.

Figure 2-2 – Wiltshire major highway and rail network

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As shown in Figure 2-3, Devizes lies at the heart of the county, providing a key service role within a wider, largely rural area. The majority of Wiltshire’s population situated to the west along the A350, whilst Salisbury is a key city to the south-east.

Figure 2-3 - Population density across Wiltshire

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Socio-Economic Context

Industry and employment

For a relatively small market town Devizes has a significant number of large employers in a number of sectors, including advanced manufacturing, food production and the service sector. A number of these businesses are owned by overseas companies that that have made significant investments and are currently looking to either expand onto larger premises or invest further in their existing site. With the recent departure from the European Union foreign direct investment is a priority for the UK Government.

Wiltshire Council along with Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership view Devizes as an area where there is already substantial economic growth and we are at an advanced stage of exploring options that will add to this, with a number of companies interested in taking space resulting in a significant growth in employment in the area. In all of our discussions with partners and potential occupiers the addition of a railway station is mentioned as a development that would significantly enhance the attractiveness of the area to business and enable employees to travel to work in a sustainable manner.

Devizes is also growing in popularity as a visitor destination. It has a vibrant independent retail offer with a growing number of specialist food and drink outlets and a vibrant arts sector. It is also a centre for barge holidays with people either stopping in the town during their holiday on the Kennett and Avon canal or stating their holiday at the popular Foxhangers Barge Centre located just outside Devizes.

The largest employment sectors in the Devizes Community Area are wholesale and retail (including the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles), and manufacturing . There are also key major employers in the IT and agri-tech business sectors with national and international reach.

Figure 2-4 - Main industrial clusters in study area

Devizes is also a distinctive local centre for independent SMEs and shops and renowned for outdoor cultural activities including annual food, art and street festivals which attract visitors nationally and help support the town’s hospitality sector.

There are low levels of unemployment in the Devizes Community Area, as indicated in Table 2-2. Unemployment stands at 2.1% which is lower than the Wiltshire, regional and national averages.

Table 2-2 - Unemployed persons aged 16 - 64

Area	Percentage (%) unemployed (16 to 64)
Devizes Community Area	2.1
Wiltshire	3.2
South West	3.2
National	4.3

Tourism

In 2018, the county of Wiltshire attracted approximately 19.6m day and staying trips with a total visitor related spend value of £1.07bn. This generated £1.49bn of business turnover in the county supporting an estimated 28,000 tourism related jobs. Devizes is a key tourism attraction in Wiltshire; the historic market town contains architectural heritage with more than 500 listed buildings, through its predominantly medieval heritage, and has a large Market Place in the heart of the town. Furthermore, the town also sits in close proximity to the Stonehenge and Avebury World Heritage Sites, and Devizes is seen as a base for onward travel to these internationally recognised destinations.

Devizes is regularly placed in the top 10 of the country's favourite market towns and is home to three nationally known visitor attractions:

Wadworth Brewery;

Caen Hill locks on the Kennet and Avon Canal; and

Wiltshire Museum.

Devizes sits on the route of the Great West Way midway between London and Bristol in the heart of rural Wiltshire on the edge of the North Wessex Downs AONB and the Stonehenge and Avebury World Heritage Site. The Swindon & Wiltshire LEP Local Industrial Strategy (LIS) includes the development of the Great West Way as one of its four strategic priorities under the Places foundation as a route to inclusive growth.

Between 2015-17, the number of employees working in the tourism sector across the Great West Way grew by 11%. The Covid-19 pandemic has led to more people planning staycations and holidaying in the UK rather than travelling abroad so these figures are likely to rise.

In addition to Devizes’ existing visitor attractions and position on the Great West Way, there are a number of regeneration plans underway to improve the town’s tourism offer:

Regeneration of Devizes Wharf to include an 80-bed hotel;

Refurbishment of the Grade 1 listed Assizes Courts to be the new home of Wiltshire Museum which has outgrown its current site;

Refurbishment of the Shambles indoor historic market adjacent to the Market Place; and

Development of a new Country Park beside Devizes Castle.

As a result, tourism is a considerable contributor to the economy of the Devizes Community Area. With plans to enhance the town’s existing tourism offer by becoming a centre on the Great West Way and deliver economic growth, the town aims to expand the tourist economy through taking a leading role as a centre for tourism in the county.

For tourism to flourish in the town, it is reliant on convenient and efficient access to the town centre and its key attractions, as well as the nearby internationally significant landmarks such as Stonehenge and Avebury. Developing enhanced connectivity will attract more national and international visitors, taking advantage of the Great West Way and its proximity to the World Heritage Sites.

Demographics

The Devizes Community Area is characterised by an ageing population, with a higher proportion of over 50’s than both the Wiltshire and England average, particularly females over 70. Consequently, the Devizes Community Area has a smaller proportion of residents aged under 40. One of the reasons for this is the number of younger people who have to move away to work or study due to a lack of affordable transport options to reach, especially for those that do not have access to a car that they can drive.

Devizes Community Area has a lower proportion of working age people (62%, 15-64) compared to Wiltshire (64%), and England (66%). Whilst lower than prevailing averages, the town’s residents require good transport links to be able to access employment, education and leisure opportunities. A survey conducted by the Devizes Development Partnership identified that 12.5% of residents would expect to use the new railway station for commuting purposes, while a further 50% would use the station primarily for leisure, visiting family etc.

The population of Devizes Community Area will grow in the future as demographic changes take place. ONS population projections indicate that Wiltshire is forecast to grow in population by approximately 46,000 between 2018 and 2038 .

The Wiltshire Core Strategy and emerging Local Plan 2036 set out planned and proposed residential and employment growth in the town and wider community area. Consequently, demand for travel will increase which can lead to congestion impacts. Section 2.3.3 details the planning-led growth requirements of Devizes, whilst Section 2.3.4 demonstrates the impact of growth on the town’s transport network.

Housing and deprivation

While Devizes and its environs are largely affluent there are also areas suffering from deprivation. Figure 2-5 and Figure 2-6 show the local area’s house prices along with areas of deprivation. Only a few LSOAs have a median house price under the national average house price of £245,000.

Within Devizes there are three areas which fall within the lowest 30th - 40th deciles of most deprived areas nationally – located in the east, west, and north-west of the town. These areas, along with pockets in rural areas in the wider Community Area, face economic challenges; access to further education, apprenticeships and better job prospects is challenging for those that do not own or have access to a car.

Figure 2-5 - Levels of deprivation in study area

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Figure 2-6 - Median house prices by MSOA

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Car ownership

As implied in Figure 2-7 car ownership decreases as population density increases, reflecting easier access to key services and amenities in urban areas, thereby reducing reliance on private vehicles. However, levels of car ownership also reflect levels of deprivation (see Figure 2-5), with those in more deprived areas being less likely to own a private vehicle. The proportion of households with no car or van in the rural areas surrounding Devizes is slightly higher than other parts of Wiltshire.

Figure 2-7 - Levels of car ownership in the study area

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Local Development Context

Wiltshire Core Strategy

The adopted Wiltshire Core Strategy sets out the framework for resilient, sustainable development across Wiltshire up to 2026. The Strategy’s vision for Devizes is for the market town to become a retail, employment, and community services centre for the Devizes Community Area and East Wiltshire through increasing the provision of residential, employment and retail development. The key allocations and strategic site locations for Devizes are outlined in Figure 2-8.

Figure 2-8 - Wiltshire Core Strategy: Devizes Community Area plan

The Strategy identifies a requirement for 2,010 new homes in Devizes, with a further 490 new homes in the wider Devizes Community Area (Table 2-3), as well as an additional 9.9 ha of land designated for employment (Figure 2-9).

Table 2-3 - Delivery of Housing 2006 to 2026 - Devizes Community Area

	Requirement 2006-2026	Housing already provided for	Housing to be identified

Completions (2006-2014)	Specific permitted sites	Strategic sites	Remainder to be identified
Devizes	2,010	1,316	361	0	333
Rest of Community Area	490	225	55	0	210
Total	2,500	1,541	416	0	543

Figure 2-9 - Principal employment areas in Devizes Community Area

Wiltshire Local Plan Review

A Local Plan shapes the development of an area by outlining the local growth (housing and employment), and development plan for a defined time period. Wiltshire Council, under its Local Development Scheme, commenced a Local Plan Review process in November 2017 to cover the period 2016 to 2036.

Following further consultation in early 2021, the pre-submission draft is due to be published for consultation in late 2021. It is anticipated that the Local Plan will be adopted by Wiltshire Council in mid-2023.

In terms of Devizes’ growth requirements, the Local Plan Review proposes a requirement of 1,330 homes between 2016 and 2036 . A total of 370 homes have already been built, between 2016 and 2019, while a further 629 homes are in the pipeline (i.e. they have planning permission or are allocated for development in the Devizes Neighbourhood Plan). There is demand for 141 affordable one-bedroom homes, 91 affordable two-bedroom homes, and 45 affordable three-or-more bedroom homes in the Devizes Community Area .

Figure 2-10 displays potential development sites being considered under the Local Plan Review. Eight potential sites have been identified at Devizes for further assessment of development potential. A key consideration for these potential site options is that the sites should be connected to the town centre by sustainable transport modes to help reduce traffic impacts (e.g. air pollution) in the town. Details about each of the eight sites for development are outlined in Table 2-4.

Figure 2-10 - Potential development sites under assessment

Table 2-4 - Potential development sites

Site	Location	Maximum size (ha)	Potential dwellings
1	Land adjoining Lay Wood	27.1	874
2	Land at Coate Bridge	19.3	624

9.1	295
3	Land east of Windsor Drive	14.8	479
4	Broadway Farm	11.9	384
5	Land off A342 and Sleight Road	25.1	813
6	Greenacre nursery	2.9	106
7	Caen Hill Farm and part of Garden trading Estate	8.0	259

1.5	56
8	Land to the North East of Roundway Park	4.5	145

The Local Plan Review also provides settlement profiles that summarise measures to address known infrastructure issues. Key points from these profiles include:

There is a limited supply of employment sites and premises, particularly affordable sites;

There are potential development opportunities at Devizes Wharf;

Town centre unit vacancies are below the national average;

Highway congestion causes delay and significantly contributes towards poor air quality;

A designated AQMA is in place;

Peak hour delays on the A361 and into key destinations affect bus services (partly as a result of a lack of bus priority measures); and

Bus links to nearby rail stations are not ideal.

Should the planned development for Devizes be confirmed in the adopted Local Plan and planning permission subsequently granted, it is forecasted that there will be a significant increase in the size of the town’s population over the next 15 years. Without intervention, this will increase the number of trips on the local and strategic road network, subsequently adding to existing congestion and air quality issues in the town. Section 2.3.4 details the impact of planned growth on the transport network.

Transport Context

This section assesses the transport context of the study area, and in particular how this provides connectivity within and across the wider region.

Census Travel to Work data

Travel to Work modal analysis highlights considerable dependency on the private car. As shown in Table 2-5, the private car is the dominant mode of travel for residents, with over 71% of residents using the car for commuting purposes, while in terms of commuters heading into Devizes for work, over 72% use the car (as shown in Table 2-6). This is slightly higher levels of car usage than the Wiltshire average (70%), but lower than some Wiltshire towns that have rail stations, such as Pewsey (74%) and Melksham (76%).

Walking is the second most popular mode for journeys to and from Devizes. Due to the size of urban Devizes (approximately 2km radius at its furthest point between the town centre and the south-east), walking can be seen as a convenient mode of travel.

Beyond Travel to Work data, a demand survey conducted by the Devizes Development Partnership highlighted demand for other journey purposes. Respondents suggested that a rail station would offer the opportunity for improved connectivity to key leisure destinations. Two thirds of respondents said that leisure trips (days out, shopping, visiting others, etc.) would be the main purpose for participants’ primary journey by rail from/to a station in Devizes (67.3%). The most popular destinations would be travel to/from London, Newbury, Reading, and Bristol, Bath, South Wales.

Table 2-5 - Mode of travel to work – Commute from Devizes

Mode	Number	Percentage
Driving a car or van	9,133	71.7
On foot	1,883	14.8
Passenger in car or van	677	5.3
Bicycle	473	3.7
Bus, minibus or coach	226	1.8
Train	154	1.2
Motorcycle, scooter or moped	114	0.9
Other method of travel to work	38	0.3
Taxi	25	0.2
Underground, metro, light rail or tram	15	0.1
TOTAL	12,738	100.0

Table 2-6 - Mode of travel to work - Commute to Devizes

Mode	Number	Percentage
Driving a car or van	9,683	72.7
On foot	1,856	13.9
Passenger in car or van	796	6.0
Bicycle	491	3.7
Bus, minibus or coach	272	2.0
Train	23	0.2
Motorcycle, scooter or moped	128	1.0
Other method of travel to work	39	0.3
Taxi	32	0.2
Underground, metro, light rail or tram	2	0.0
TOTAL	13,322	100.0

Figure 2-11 and Figure 2-12 map the origins and destination patterns of individuals residing or working in Devizes. Residents of Devizes predominantly work within Wiltshire, with the majority working within Devizes itself (35%) or in the surrounding towns of Trowbridge, Melksham, Marlborough, Corsham, Chippenham and Swindon. Outside of Wiltshire, some key employment locations for Devizes residents include Swindon (c 500 people), London (c. 200 people), Bath (c. 170 people) and Bristol (c. 150 people).

For those commuting to Devizes, the range of origin locations is narrower, with 89% of workers in Devizes living elsewhere in Wiltshire, and an additional 3% travelling into the town from Swindon.

Figure 2-11 – Place of work for residents of Devizes

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Figure 2-12 - Place of residence for people working in Devizes

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The following tables summarise the key locations for commuting to and from Devizes. Table 2-7 displays the places of residence for people working in Devizes, showing that the majority of journeys originate in Wiltshire (11,899 of the 13,332 journeys). Analysing the Built-Up Areas within Wiltshire, Table 2-7 highlights that most people travelling into Devizes already live in the Devizes Built-Up Area (BUA) (2,850 journeys), or the surrounding rural areas (2,241).

Beyond Wiltshire, there are a considerable number of people who commute into Devizes from Swindon, as well as the Bath and North East Somerset (B&NES) and Mendip areas. There is also the presence of more regional journeys to key cities such as Bristol. Consequently, Devizes has a local employment base with ties further afield to larger towns and cities.

Table 2-7 – Location of residence: commuters to Devizes, by mode (local authority)

Usual residence (local authority)	Number of commuters into Devizes	Commuting mode

% journeys made by car	% journeys made by train	% journeys made by bus	% journeys made by cycling	% journeys made by walking
Wiltshire*	11,899	71%	0%	2%	4%	15%
Swindon	503	83%	1%	6%	2%	1%
B&NES	143	92%	0%	0%	1%	1%
Mendip	113	96%	0%	0%	1%	0%
East Devon	56	82%	0%	9%	0%	0%
Bristol	50	96%	0%	0%	2%	0%
Test Valley	47	94%	0%	0%	0%	0%
South Glos.	44	89%	0%	2%	0%	0%
Other	467	85%	1%	2%	0%	5%

Table 2-8 – Location of residence: commuters to Devizes, by mode (Built-Up Areas )

Usual residence (Built-Up Area)	Number of commuters into Devizes	Commuting mode

% journeys made by car	% journeys made by train	% journeys made by bus	% journeys made by cycling	% journeys made by walking
Devizes BUA	2,850	57%	0%	1%	7%	28%
Non-BUA	2,241	61%	0%	2%	5%	25%
Upavon BUA	1,337	69%	0%	2%	4%	16%
East Grafton BUA	1,313	73%	0%	3%	4%	10%
Trowbridge BUA	668	87%	0%	4%	1%	2%
Melksham BUA	539	87%	0%	2%	2%	1%
Chippenham (Wiltshire) BUA	531	90%	0%	2%	1%	2%
Calne BUA	476	88%	0%	3%	1%	2%
Tidworth BUA	293	83%	0%	2%	1%	3%
Westbury (Wiltshire) BUA	287	93%	0%	1%	1%	0%
Other Wilts	1,087	83%	0%	2%	1%	6%

Table 2-9 and Table 2-10 break down where Devizes residents commute to. A total of 10,438 of Devizes’s 12,738 commuters work elsewhere in Wiltshire; with the Devizes Built-Up Area the most popular location while further afield, there is demand for travel to places such as Market Lavington, Trowbridge, Chippenham and Melksham.

Like the in-commuting data, there is demand for travel to larger regional urban authorities such as Swindon, B&NES and Bristol.

Table 2-9 – Location of employment: Devizes residents, by mode (local authority)

Usual residence (local authority)	Number of commuters into Devizes	Commuting mode

% journeys made by car	% journeys made by train	% journeys made by bus	% journeys made by cycling	% journeys made by walking
Wiltshire	10,438	69%	0%	2%	4%	17%
Swindon	633	89%	1%	4%	0%	1%
Test Valley	204	89%	1%	1%	0%	2%
B&NES	192	81%	8%	4%	2%	1%
West Berkshire	128	88%	1%	0%	2%	5%
Bristol	103	77%	18%	0%	1%	1%
South Glos.	99	91%	4%	0%	1%	2%
Mendip	67	97%	0%	0%	0%	1%
Westminster	65	15%	52%	5%	2%	8%
Winchester	49	88%	0%	6%	2%	2%
Other	760	78%	6%	0%	1%	10%

Table 2-10 – Location of employment: Devizes residents (Built-Up Areas)

Usual residence (Built-Up Area)	Number of commuters into Devizes	Commuting mode

% journeys made by car	% journeys made by train	% journeys made by bus	% journeys made by cycling	% journeys made by walking
Devizes BUA	4,408	55%	0%	2%	6%	29%
Market Lavington BUA	1,646	67%	0%	1%	6%	17%
Non BUA	1,258	77%	0%	1%	3%	12%
Trowbridge BUA	576	88%	0%	2%	1%	3%
Chippenham (Wiltshire) BUA	385	88%	1%	2%	0%	3%
Melksham BUA	356	91%	0%	2%	1%	1%
Marlborough BUA	252	81%	0%	3%	3%	8%
Other Wilts	1,557	90%	0%	2%	0%	3%

Breaking down the data to investigate spatial patterns of specific modes of travel provides further insight into commuting patterns of those living and working in Devizes. Figure 2-13 to Figure 2-16 map the commuting patterns by travel mode. The following characteristics have been identified:

Car/van

As highlighted previously, car is the dominant mode of transport in Devizes. While most trips to/from Devizes are local, Figure 2-13 shows that there are significant flows to other Wiltshire towns and key settlements in neighbouring areas.

The following spatial patterns have been identified:

From Devizes – Towns along the A350 corridor, including Chippenham, Melksham and Trowbridge, are principal destinations, although there are considerable numbers of journeys taking place within the Devizes Community Area.

To Devizes – Rural areas to the east and west of Devizes are principal origins for Devizes employees. This includes rural areas to the south of Pewsey as well as between Devizes and the A350 corridor.

Figure 2-13 - Commuting to/from Devizes by car/van

Rail

Figure 2-14 shows commuting to and from Devizes by train. Due to the absence of a rail station in Devizes, the low commuting numbers to and/or from Devizes by rail (as highlighted in Table 2-5 and Table 2-6) is unsurprising. However, despite the poor rail connectivity in Devizes, 16 residents still travel to Bath by rail, 9 to Bristol and 48 to London, which are longer distance journeys.

The following spatial patterns have been identified:

From Devizes – Those using rail as their primary mode of travel to work generally travel to destinations further afield such as Bath, Bristol, Reading and London.

To Devizes - Due to the lack of a rail station at Devizes, there are few commuters to Devizes utilising a train for the majority of their journey.

Figure 2-14 - Commuting to/from Devizes by train

London

London

Bus

Figure 2-15 shows commuting to and from Devizes by bus. As set-out in Tables 2-6 to 2-9, there is considerable travel demand between Devizes and other Wiltshire market towns such as Melksham, Trowbridge and Westbury. However, the bus is not currently playing a significant role as an alternative to the private car for these medium-length commuter journeys.

The following spatial patterns have been identified:

From Devizes – Provides a link to Trowbridge, Swindon, Bath, Salisbury and Marlborough.

To Devizes – Buses are an important means of connectivity to Devizes for those living in the rural areas in central Wiltshire.

Figure 2-15 - Commuting to/from Devizes by bus

Cycling

Figure 2-16 shows commuting to and from Devizes by bicycle. Within a low overall modal share, cycling broadly follows an east-west pattern, with market towns such as Melksham seeing travel demand for work journeys. Devizes itself lends itself to cycling for residents who live and work in the town due to its convenient size. The uptake in cycling is, however, affected by the presence or lack of a convenient and safe segregated cycle infrastructure.

The following spatial patterns have been identified:

From Devizes – Presence of cycling journeys from Devizes to market towns such as Melksham and Corsham, as well as the rural environs of Devizes.

To Devizes – Cycling journeys enter Devizes from rural areas to the east and west of the town, whilst towns such as Melksham and Marlborough have trips.

Figure 2-16 - Commuting to/from Devizes by bicycle

Active travel

Wiltshire Council’s local cycle network for Devizes is outlined in Figure 2-17. The town has a generally well-connected cycle network, although the majority of this is currently not fully segregated nor traffic-free. National Cycle Network (NCN) Route 4 also passes through the northern extent of Devizes along the Kennet and Avon Canal (Figure 2-18). This long-distance route between London and Fishguard passes via Reading, Bath, Bristol, Newport, Swansea, Tenby, Haverfordwest and St. David’s. Wiltshire Council is aiming to develop a Local Cycling and Walking Infrastructure Plan (LCWIP) for Devizes during 2022 using available S106 monies

In the 2011 Census, 3.7% of residents in Wiltshire cycled to work, which is similar to other predominantly rural areas in England. Comparatively, 5.0% of residents living in Devizes commuted to work by bicycle in 2011, with the majority of trips occurring east-west (largely within Devizes, and to Melksham or Trowbridge) rather than north-south. The government’s target is to increase the proportion of people in Devizes cycling to work to 8.0%, which would see savings of approximately 10.1 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year.

Figure 2-17 - Devizes Town Cycle Network

Figure 2-18 - National Cycle Network: Devizes

Figure 2-19 outlines the Public Rights of Way (PRoW) within and surrounding Devizes. There is an extremely well-connected network of rural PRoW routes linking Devizes to surrounding areas, particularly the immediate villages of Potterne, Seend and Urchfont.

Figure 2-19 - Public Rights of Way

Bridleway	Byway open to all traffic	Footpath

Public transport

Public transport provision

While Devizes no longer has a rail connection, across the country Wiltshire has 13 stations. The closest railway stations to Devizes are Melksham and Trowbridge, located eight miles north-west and 11 miles south-west of Devizes, respectively. Access to these stations by existing public transport provision (bus services) is lengthy and inconvenient. Travel times to both Melksham and Trowbridge range between 30 to 40 minutes (Melksham) to over one hour (Trowbridge) . Swindon, Chippenham and Pewsey rail stations are served by direct buses from Devizes with journey times in the region of an hour. At present, driving is the more direct, convenient option to reach Melksham and Trowbridge Stations.

Train services from Melksham are operated by Great Western Railway and serve locations such as Westbury, Trowbridge, Chippenham and Swindon on a limited basis at every 2 hours. Services from Trowbridge are operated by Great Western Railway and South Western Railway, and serve locations including Bristol Temple Meads, Cardiff Central, Portsmouth Harbour, and Worcester Foregate Street.

Figure 2-20 displays the frequency of bus services within Wiltshire (reflecting reduced service operation as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic). There are a number of frequent bus services, with the majority servicing towns in the A350 corridor, and several frequent buses servicing the key locations such as Bath, Salisbury and Swindon. Due to the town’s location within the highway network, Devizes is not connected by as many frequent bus services, although direct services do connect the town to Melksham, Bath and Salisbury. In particular, buses are an important service through which to connect villages to the south and to the east. As demonstrated in Figure 2-11 and Figure 2-12, the origins and destinations of commuters to and from Devizes are predominantly the local area surrounding Devizes, which is connected by several bus services (although often infrequently).

Figure 2-20 - Bus frequency (Monday peak periods)

Public transport journey time analysis

To understand the changes in accessibility as a result of opening a new station on the Berks and Hants Line, serving Devizes, accessibility analysis was undertaken using the industry standard Basemap TRACC. This software measures the fastest journey time within a given time period between a number of origins and destinations and uses this to create accessibility contours. The OS Open Roads network, public transport timetable data and the location of stops, as well as an origin grid and destination point, were used to run these calculations. For each origin point, the journey time is calculated to the specified single destination point by using the inputted road network and public transport data. The calculations encompass walking journey time to and between public transport stops in addition to a walk from the final public transport stop to the destination. If a public transport journey is not available or slower than walking, the walk journey time is returned. Additionally, the software assumes a 5-minute interchange penalty when interchanging between public transport services. This is to allow for potentially changing platforms at a rail station, while also providing a buffer for potential small delays to public transport services to avoid missing tight connections.

To investigate the service provision of the current public transport network, baseline maps have been compiled using the aforementioned TRACC software to understand present service provisions.

Devizes Market Place has been used as the destination point to represent central Devizes. A destination grid with 250m between points was used to calculate travel times in the local area. The model was run between 7am and 10am. Contours can then be created using the grid of journey times. As the contours are based on the fastest available journey during the given period, it is important to highlight that due to the rural nature of the study area, buses are often less frequent, therefore the resulting values may only be applicable for one service combination. Public transport timetables from January 2020 have been used to model the presented journey times. This is to avoid any influence of the emergency timetables imposed due to reduced public transport usage during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Figure 2-21 displays the current public transport journey times to Devizes during the morning peak period. The town is generally well connected to its immediate neighbours within the county during the morning peak period, however public transport connectivity to larger areas such as Westbury and Chippenham is poorer due to longer travel times of around 50 minutes. Within this time period, it is also currently possible to reach Devizes within 70 minutes from Bath as well as from Swindon and Salisbury in 80 to 90 minutes. Overall, it is clear that Devizes lacks strong connectivity to areas beyond its immediate neighbouring towns and villages which may inhibit current public transport usage.

Figure 2-21 - Public transport commuting time to Devizes (AM Peak)

The below figures (Figure 2-22 to Figure 2-25) outline the current fastest journey times to the key economic areas of Bath, Bristol, Chippenham and Trowbridge respectively.

It is evident that connectivity to key employment centres such as Bristol and Bath is currently limited, with journeys currently taking 70 minutes to Bath and 90 minutes to Bristol. This connectivity to Bristol only pertains to the immediate area surrounding Bristol Temple Meads station and entails multiple interchanges across different transport modes. It is therefore clear that travelling to Bristol by public transport for commuting and leisure is currently highly undesirable.

Connectivity to Trowbridge and Chippenham is slightly better, but still limited, with journey times around 40 and 50 minutes respectively. There is a decrease in connectivity beyond Market Place in Devizes throughout the town as a result of potential users being required to walk to the central bus stops or utilise another service to interchange.

Analysis was also conducted for access to Reading, however at present there are no connections available within 90 minutes. Overall, the current public transport offering within Devizes limits people's ability to commute out of the local area to some of the key employment centres within the South West.

Figure 2-22 - Journey times to Bath using public transport (AM Peak)

Figure 2-23 - Journey times to Bristol using public transport (AM Peak)

Figure 2-24 - Journey times to Chippenham using public transport (AM Peak)

Figure 2-25 - Journey times to Trowbridge using public transport (AM Peak)

One-hour journey time catchment

Table 2-11 and Table 2-12 display the population that are within an hour commuting distance of Devizes town centre in both absolute and percentage terms. There are 167,041 people currently living within an hour of Devizes town centre. With most of these within the 50-60-minute time period. Interestingly, only 10% of people within the hour journey time of Devizes do not have access to a car, which is lower than the England average of 16.4%.

Table 2-11 – Split of population within 60 minutes of Devizes town centre

	Within 10 mins	10-20 mins	20-30 mins	30-40 mins	40-50 mins	50-60 mins	Total
Population	7,807	17,188	18,451	28,572	38,515	56,509	167,041
16-24-year olds	731	1,776	1,728	3,052	4,009	5,884	17,180
16-64-year olds	4,691	10,831	11,376	17,946	24,457	36,276	105,577
Population with no car	1,325	1,042	1,407	2,893	4,025	6,089	16,781

Table 2-12 - Percentages of population within 60mins of Devizes town centre

	Within 10 mins	10-20 mins	20-30 mins	30-40 mins	40-50 mins	50-60 mins
Population	5%	10%	11%	17%	23%	34%
16-24-year olds	4%	10%	10%	18%	23%	34%
16-64-year olds	4%	10%	11%	17%	23%	34%
Population with no car	8%	6%	8%	17%	24%	36%

Highway network

Figure 2-26 outlines the average journey time to central Devizes during the morning peak. It is clear that there is good access to places such as Chippenham, Melksham and Westbury within 20 to 30 minutes, and further afield areas such as Swindon and Bath are accessible within 40 minutes. Access also extends to include parts of Bristol which can be reached within 60 minutes. When comparing this result to those seen in Figure 2-21 it is evident that access to a car provides a significant mobility advantage when travelling into/from Devizes.

Figure 2-26 - Average journey times to Devizes by car (AM Peak)

Comparison of journey times

Table 2-13 summarises the findings of the travel time analysis. It clearly shows that the private car is the quicker mode of travel to access key destinations, including other Wiltshire towns and further afield to destinations such as Bath and Bristol. Public transport journey times are significantly longer while, for the majority of journeys, cycling is not a viable mode choice with only three of the destinations being within a one-hour cycle ride.

Table 2-13 - Journey times to key locations from Devizesa

Destinationb	Distance (miles)	Carc	Public Transportc	Bicycle
Melksham	8.4	14 - 20 mins	34 mins	50 mins (9.7mi)
Trowbridge	11.6	20 - 26 mins	48 mins	59 mins (11.6mi)
Chippenham	12.0	20 - 28 mins	57 mins	58 mins (11.3 mi)
Pewsey	11.7	20 - 26 mins	49 mins	71 mins (13.6mi)
Bath	20.0	35 - 55 mins	68 mins	> 90 mins
Bristol	31.8	55 – 75 mins	87 mins	> 90 mins
London	91.0	110 - 160 mins	124 mins	> 90 mins

a. Origin of journey is Wiltshire Museum (SN10 1NS) in Devizes town centre. It should be noted that journey times differ depending on where people live in Devizes.
b. Google Maps Journey Times – Quickest journey time Mon-Thu starting in the AM-peak (7am-9am).
c. Destination is the main railway station in the destination town/city. For London, London Paddington was selected.

Road congestion

(i) Current levels of congestion

The Devizes Community Area has a total road network of 162 miles . Between 2012 and 2017, there was an estimated 6% increase in traffic flow on local roads; the average AM (between 7am and 9am) traffic speed on A-roads in the Devizes Community Area was 31.5mph in 2018. Between 2012 and 2017, this indicator fell by 0.3mph.

Figure 2-27 highlights congestion issues experienced within Devizes and in the surrounding area in 2018 (the Wiltshire Traffic Model base year). The most notable delays being experienced are at the intersection of the A361 and A342 to the west of Devizes, and on the A361 adjacent to the Wiltshire Police Headquarters towards the north of Devizes.

Figure 2-27 - Current levels of road congestion

Map Description automatically generated

(ii) Future levels of congestion

It is forecast that the existing highway congestion issues will be worsened with the delivery of planned growth. As the Wiltshire Core Strategy / Local Plan Review housing and employment growth is delivered (see Section 2.3.3), the associated rise in travel demand will increase delays on the highway network. The increase in delay will constrain accessibility to the town, which could affect the town’s aims for economic regeneration and furthering its tourism offer.

Figure 2-28 shows the change in traffic delay in the AM peak period between 2036, when the proposed Local Plan growth has been delivered, and the 2018 base year. Across the network there are broad increases in delay by 0 to 30 seconds, with particular hotspots (delay over 30 seconds) west of Devizes town centre at Dunkirk Hill.

It is therefore of importance to diversify the town’s travel options to ensure Devizes can be accessible for its residents and visitors and create an environment for economic growth.

Figure 2-28 - Change in traffic delay (AM Peak) - 2018 v 2036

While a demand survey conducted by the Devizes Development Partnership highlighted that 86% of survey respondents always had access to a car that they can drive, isolation, lack of access to opportunities and essential services may be experienced by those that do not have access to a car that they can drive.

Air Quality and Carbon

Due to air quality issues caused by the impact of traffic, from 2009 Devizes town centre has been subject to an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA), the location of which is shown in Figure 2-29.

Figure 2-29 - Devizes: Air Quality Management Area

Wiltshire Council acknowledged a climate emergency in February 2019 and the council’s aim is for Wiltshire to become carbon neutral (net zero) by 2030.

Carbon reduction is also an integral theme within the Local Plan Review and Local Transport Plan (LTP3) (and is anticipated to also be a priority in the forthcoming LTP4) and is also recognised as a significant factor in the county’s recovery from COVID-19.

Summary of Key Issues and Challenges

The analysis above illustrates a number of key issues and challenges in relation to the transport connectivity in Devizes. These are set out below:

Issue 1: No rail access in Devizes: Devizes’ rail station closed in 1966, leaving the town relatively isolated in terms of rail options and therefore leaves the local community reliant on the private car. The nearest station is over 8 miles way in Melksham, and this takes 40 minutes to get to by public transport. Moreover, the current train service operating from Melksham only runs every two hours on a north-south route. There are 13 rail stations in Wiltshire; some of which serve towns with a smaller population than Devizes.

Issue 2: Poor public transport connections to key destinations: Strategic public transport connections are currently limited in the Devizes Community Area, and there is no easy or quick public transport link with the national rail network. Current public transport accessibility to important trip origins and destinations is lengthy and inconvenient. Journeys to places like Melksham, Trowbridge and Chippenham are important for employment, business and leisure purposes, although journey times by public transport to these places far exceed the equivalent journey by private car. Key towns and cities in the wider region such as Bristol, Bath and Swindon are both important commuting destinations for Devizes residents, as highlighted in the Census Travel to Work analysis, and for business, education and leisure purposes; the town’s poor public transport provision means those locations are currently difficult to reach by public transport and limit options.

Issue 3: Poor rail access constrains Devizes’ economic growth. The lack of a convenient alternative to the private car impedes economic regeneration and limits the full potential of Devizes’ tourism offer due to the lack of mode choice. The lack of rail access in Devizes is particularly important for the business community in terms of connectivity to/from key destinations, and for aspirations for sustainable tourism growth. One of the main concerns of prospective and existing companies is being able to attract employees to fill the posts on offer as Devizes is relatively isolated from other large urban conurbations. The provision of a railway station would dramatically enhance the towns connectivity to areas with a prospective pool of employees. Businesses have highlighted the lack of rail connectivity and potential employees’ ability to commute, with some having to pay relocation fees to acquire the staff they need, or risk losing out to other employers located elsewhere. The difficulty in keeping staff due to transport challenges, particularly younger staff who often do not have access to a car, is another issue raised by local businesses. Furthermore, the current lack of connectivity acts as a deterrent to businesses who might be considering Devizes as a potential location for setting up or expanding.

Issue 4: Poor rail access constrains Devizes’ tourism offer Accessing Devizes and surrounding areas including the North Wessex Downs ANOB by non-car modes can be challenging, which may deter visitors (particularly by international tourists), impeding economic regeneration plans and its burgeoning tourism economy.

Issue 5: Dependency on carbon intensive modes of travel: The lack of a convenient public transport network compounds air quality problems and runs counter to local and national decarbonisation policy. Reducing dependency on car travel is an important facet of reducing carbon emissions, and improving local air quality and can only be achieved if there are regular accessible sustainable transport options such as restoring connectivity to the rail network.

Issue 6: Highway network experiences delays: Devizes experiences delays at peak periods on its highway network which has a negative impact on connectivity, air quality and economic growth. Across Devizes and its environs, over 70% of journeys are made by private car, highlighting the convenience of this mode for travel. In Devizes and its rural hinterland however, the car may be seen as a necessity due to a lack of viable alternatives. As the congestion data shows, local roads suffer from delays, including on the A361 between Northfields and Devizes town centre and at Dunkirk Hill / Bath Road junction. A large proportion of people use cars to travel to and from Devizes, contributing to local congestion problems. This reliance on the private car produces environmental issues in terms of air quality and is detrimental to the national and local ambition to reach Net Zero, following the declaration of a Climate Emergency.

Issue 7: Accommodating planned housing growth will place further strain on the transport network. There are a number of proposals to develop new housing and deliver economic growth and regeneration in Devizes. The Wiltshire Core Strategy and the emerging Local Plan set out housing requirements and increased economic growth for the town and the wider area. The delivery of this growth will increase travel demand, which in particular will add additional trips to the highway network. It is therefore important for an infrastructure strategy to be developed with a view to mitigating the impacts of travel demand growth.

Summary of Rationale for Change

Currently, there is no rail access in Devizes, which is the fourth largest town in Wiltshire and a key service centre for the wider local area. Journeys via public transport take considerably longer than journeys by private car. Many Devizes residents commute out of the town for employment purposes and are reliant on the private car as it is a more convenient and quicker mode compared to the existing public transport provision.

If public transport provision is not improved, more journeys will be made on the highway network, adding to existing congestion levels. The lack of viable alternatives to the private car for people living in the study area, especially in rural areas, means sustainable travel, accessibility and connectivity is limited, which constrains the area’s economic potential and presents an obstacle to the Community Area’s aspiration for levelling up.

Residential and employment growth is planned which will increase travel demand in Devizes and further strain the existing transport network. Wiltshire Council’s identifies the need for over 2,000 homes to be delivered by 2026 through its adopted Core Strategy whilst the emerging Local Plan identifies additional growth to 2036. Furthermore, there are economic regeneration proposals, such as the Devizes Wharf, Wiltshire Museum, Technology & Enterprise Hub, and the opportunity to increase the town’s tourism offer within the wider Wiltshire area, Great West Way and Stonehenge and Avebury World Heritage Site.

In addition to helping to address the transport problems in the area, a suitable intervention could help to deliver a number of other transport-related and socio-economic benefits. These include:

Improved accessibility to employment and education opportunities, thereby reducing deprivation and levelling up life chances for local residents, particularly young people;

Growing visitor numbers and visitor spending by providing improved sustainable travel options to local, national and international visitors to historic Devizes, the Great West Way and the nearby Stonehenge and Avebury World Heritage site;

Support the delivery of planned and future housing and employment growth in Devizes and the wider area through diversifying the town’s transport offer and increasing transport capacity;

Encouraging inward investment and attracting new businesses to the Devizes area by improving connectivity;

Improved air quality in the study area from a reduction in private car journeys; and

Positive contribution to Net Zero and the Climate Emergency through encouraging a sift to lower carbon modes.

Improving connectivity to Devizes is a strategic fit with the policies of Wiltshire Council, the Swindon and Wiltshire LEP and the Western Gateway Sub-national Transport Body. The delivery of the station would stimulate economic and tourist growth and help reconnect communities that, due to poor transport links, are currently relatively isolated in public transport terms. Moreover, the reinstatement of a more local access to the rail network via a Devizes Gateway station has the potential to transform travel patterns (particularly in a post-Covid world) and business and tourism opportunities in ways which cannot necessarily be foreseen.

Objectives

Objectives have been formed to ensure they address the transport issues identified in Section 2.4, the rationale for change presented in Section 2.5 and relate with the strategic objectives of key policy documents reviewed in Section 2.2.

It is also imperative that the scheme objectives align with the aims of the Restoring Your Railway guidance. Section 2.6.1 presents an overarching set of strategic objectives for the intervention in Devizes. Following this, scheme-specific objectives have been formed. These are presented in Section 2.6.2.

Strategic objectives

Building on the context setting, strategic objectives have been formed. These have been developed in line with the DfT’s Restoring Your Railway guidance and are centred around delivering:

Value for money that can deliver an efficient and economically viable rail service;

Sustainable economic and productivity growth by better connecting people to work, educational, health, social, and leisure facilities;

Environmental improvements by reducing the reliance of the private car;

Improved connectivity between Wiltshire’s communities; and

Levelling up ambitions including for Devizes as a sub-regional significant economic centre.

Scheme objectives

Scheme-specific objectives for a transport intervention in Devizes are presented below. These objectives are informed by engagement previously undertaken between the Devizes Development Partnership, Wiltshire Council and Network Rail. The scheme objectives are as follows:

Improve connectivity across the heart of Wiltshire to increase access to employment and education opportunities, supporting the levelling up of relatively isolated rural communities.

Positively contribute to the Climate Emergency and help to reduce air quality issues through promoting modal shift to lower carbon travel.

Increase the capacity of Devizes’ transport network to deliver planned residential growth, support economic regeneration and the growth of tourism under the levelling up agenda.

Deliver an efficient, economically viable rail service that maximises Value for Money.

Improve public transport connectivity and reduce journey times to and from Devizes to ensure communities are better connected.

Provide efficient access to and from key locations in the region to attract inward investment in economic activity.

Logic Map

The logic map presented in Figure 2-30 links the identified challenges to the strategic objectives and the scheme’s outputs and outcomes / benefits. It has been developed in line with DfT’s logic mapping and RYR guidance.

Figure 2-30 - Logic Map

Existing Support for the Scheme

A new station serving Devizes is one of the Swindon and Wiltshire Local Enterprise Partnership’s (SWLEP) principle recommendations in the 2018 Swindon and Wiltshire Rail Strategy. It is estimated that as well as increasing both regional and national connectivity, a new station in Devizes could have an additional Gross Added Value (GVA) benefit of approximately £6.56 million per annum .

TransWilts , whose stakeholders include Great Western Railway (GWR) and South Western Railway, have also outlined in their most recent Annual Report and Policy (2019/20) that a new station in Devizes is a priority, and have campaigned for a new local service. Furthermore, Danny Kruger MP sponsored the bid for the DfT’s Restoring Your Railways funding.

To date, the Devizes Development Partnership has conducted an extensive programme of engagement to understand the extend of local support for reopening a station at Devizes. Engagement has taken place with Devizes Town Council, local communities, businesses, educational establishments, environmental and heritage groups, transport operators and sub-regional and regional government.

As part of this engagement programme, a demand survey was conducted online in January 2021, in which over 2,500 participants took part. The survey was publicised across local and regional news outlets and social media, and the questions were based on a “non-COVID-19 situation” in order to understand typical travel patterns and demand .

The key findings of the DDP’s survey include:

82.0% of participants currently use a car for their most frequent journey that is over 10 miles in distance;

If a rail station in Devizes were to open, 78.0% of participants said that they would use it;

While 86.0% of participants always have access to a car that they can drive, only 35% of participants would travel by car or car share to reach a station in Devizes, with 31% of participants indicating that they would use a connecting bus;

Trips for leisure (days out, shopping, visiting others, etc.) would be the main purpose for participants’ primary journey by rail from/to a station in Devizes (67.3%); and

Most participants (86.0%) would travel to/from London, Newbury, Reading, etc. or Bristol, Bath, South Wales, etc. for their main rain journey, if Devizes had a station.

Participants were also able to provide long-form written responses to open questions in the DDP’s demand survey. A sample of these anonymous responses include:

“I think the station would be a huge benefit to Devizes and surrounding areas. It would also ease road congestion”

“Absolutely fantastic news for the people of Devizes and surrounding districts and long, long overdue. It will be great for the economic growth of the town and really put Devizes on the map”

“Fantastic idea. The town should be centred around this development…”

The DDP’s survey findings were presented to the Devizes Area Board in March 2021 and are included in Appendix A.

Appendix A also provides quotes from stakeholders, setting out their support for re-instating rail in Devizes.

Option Development and Assessment

This section provides an introduction to the different options which have been identified as being potentially able to meet the objectives identified above. Although the study is focussed on providing a new station on the Berks and Hants Line serving Devizes and its environs, as per the DfT’s guidance, alternative options to opening a new station are also presented.

Station locations

Figure 2-31 outlines the sites that have been identified as potential station locations for a new Devizes Gateway station on the Berks and Hants line:

Lydeway Site – Approx 1km north of Wedhampton village, adjacent to Lydeway Field airfield, and

Lavington Site – Where the Reading to Taunton line crosses the A360, approximately 2km north of West Lavington.

Figure 2-31 - Proposed station locations

Lydeway Site (51°19.8’N 1°55.5’W)

The Lydeway site is 3.5 miles from Devizes where the old Devizes branch line formerly connected to the main line. The track is straight here and without gradient. Access to the A342 is feasible using either the route of the old branch line from the northern side of the railway much of which remains undeveloped or potentially approaching from the south by a junction off the A342. This main road is the least congested of all the routes into Devizes and feeds into the town’s ring road avoiding AQMA areas. Sustainable access between the town and the station could be facilitated via a dedicated shuttle bus service supplementing existing bus services and a cycle track. The site is in a rural location away from any housing with land available for car parking either side of the railway, and construction worksites and station amenities on either side of the railway, subject to land acquisition. Landowners were approached in 2018 and were amenable to land acquisition.

The site is located within (though on the edge of) the North Wessex Downs AONB and on the north side of the Berks and Hants tracks. It is on the edge of a flood zone. An indicative schematic developed by Cole Easdon for the station at Lydeway in Jan 2018 locates the station at the end of the Lydeway Airstrip and shows attenuation ponds to alleviate flood risk (see Appendix D). Discussions have taken place with the AONB Landscape and Planning Officer regarding the possible location of a new station at this site. The AONB’s policy is to limit car parking as much as possible and reduce impact on the environment. The AONB’s suggestion was to move the station location further west closer to the Clock Inn Park and the A342. At this point the Berks and Hants line is on a curve enclosed within a steep wooded cutting which could present technical and operational challenges. Wiltshire Council’s Head of Development Management also attended the meeting and felt there was scope for flexibility on the original site. Lydeway Airstrip is a small light aircraft airstrip in the fields behind the proposed site to the north west.

An alternative option for the Lydeway site, is to locate the station slightly further west parallel to the airstrip. This section of the railway has a wider Network Rail land availability with the northern side of the railway covered in dense shrub and on a slight slope. Parking was intended both north and south of the railway with access from the south via a link off the A342. The old branch line would be used for cycle access.

In terms of constraints on road access, the junction north of the railway on A342 would be close to two road turnings to Stert and Etchilhampton located on a section of curving road. Access from the south would require traffic from the Devizes direction to cross a road bridge over the Berks and Hants railway line where the road narrows. The southern junction for the station access road would be located on a straight stretch of A342 carriageway shortly after the road bridge resulting in a shorter access road than the northern option and avoiding proximity to the Clock Inn Park bungalows.

Lavington Site (51°17'32"N 2°0'25"W)

A second site option is at a former station called Lavington situated where the Berks and Hants line passes close to Littleton Panell on an embankment adjacent to the Lavington road bridge over the A360. The original station comprised two platforms with a main building on the westbound platform and a waiting room on the eastbound. The goods yard was at the southwest of the station and the West signal box was opposite. The station was closed under Beeching in 1966, and a scrapyard now occupies the site. Access to the station would be via a short turn off (300 yds approx.) from the A360 Devizes to Salisbury single lane main road. This site is approximately 6 miles from Devizes.

The station would be on an embankment and on a curve which could present technical, construction and operational challenges. It is twice as far from Devizes as the Lydeway site. Road access to the station off the A360 would involve a sharp right turn immediately after passing under the Chocolate Poodle rail bridge which could present hazard issues. Wiltshire Council have expressed some concerns about road access from the station to Devizes as the road is congested, winding, passes through several busy villages, is used frequently for school runs to two major secondary schools as well being the main north-south route from Devizes to Salisbury. There is a dangerous 90-degree corner on the road in the village of Potterne, a traffic accident black spot.

Market Lavington Site

A few hundred yards further east than the Lavington site, the Market Lavington site option is located on a straight line of track adjacent to the Lavington Viaduct near Ledge Hill but still close to the A360. It is over 1 mile north of Market Lavington village, which is a Local Service Centre. The site is also about 6 miles from Devizes.

The station would be located 20 ft up on an embankment as at this point the railway runs from rail road bridge to viaduct which could presents some substantial technical challenges and potential costs. There is a large field next to the site which could be used for the development of a car park and public transport interchange. As with the Lavington site Wiltshire Council have expressed same concerns over the impact of any increased traffic caused by the station.

Other Station Options

Two other alternative sites were also identified by the DDP, although for reasons of access are considered less suitable;

Patney Bridge (51.32460022N,-1.89791150W): This is the site of the former Patney and Chirton Station, is the farthest east, about 4.5 miles from Devizes. Road access is complicated and only by very narrow winding lanes. For this reason it was discarded

Erlestoke: This location is 6.9 miles from Devizes using the A360 and B3098 and is the furthest west of the station options. Wiltshire Council’s concerns on road access to this site are even greater and it was seen as too far from Devizes to be considered as a suitable option for a station for the town.

Preferred Site

Although none of the sites have been assessed in any detail, both the Lydeway and Lavington sites are considered credible options. Further work to assess the benefits of individual sites would be needed in further stages of the study, but at this stage it would seem that the Lydeway site presents a preferred option. Lydeway is the closest site to Devizes, providing easy and quick access to the station from Devizes Town Centre to the Gateway station. It is also located in an area where the topography would easily allow the construction of a new station, with plenty of space for associated access roads, car parks and bus interchanges etc.

Proposed rail service

A high-level review has been undertaken to assess the operational feasibility of providing a regular service at Devizes Gateway station, offering direct trains eastwards to Reading and London, and westwards to Westbury and, in some options, Taunton and Exeter. The full review is provided in Appendix B. The review also considered the alternative option of serving Devizes by constructing a branch off the Berks and Hants route. This could either use the former rail alignment to reach a new station closer to Devizes town centre, or it could involve a very short spur off the main line into a bay platform at or near any of the proposed Devizes Gateway sites.

Great Western Railway (GWR) and Network Rail have been consulted during the development of this operational feasibility review. Network Rail supplied RYR Devizes Gateway Advisory Note on Future Freight Forecasting November 2020 which set out freight forecasts and requirements for the affected line.

Baseline services on the Berks and Hants line

GWR supplied their strategic development timetable for use as a base in this study. GWR currently operate three regular direct services between Paddington and stations west of Newbury on the Berks and Hants line and these services are largely unchanged in GWR’s base timetable compared to the existing timetable. These services generally conform to the pattern summarised below, with some variations at the start and end of the day, as well as at peak times.

An hourly express service between Paddington and Plymouth / Penzance. This generally runs non-stop between Reading and Taunton.

A 2-hourly semi-fast service between Paddington and Exeter / Paignton / Plymouth. This generally calls at: Newbury, Hungerford, Pewsey, Westbury and Castle Cary between Reading and Taunton. East of Newbury, this service is infilled by a 2-hourly Paddington – Newbury shuttle. GWR have an aspiration to extend the Paddington - Newbury shuttle westwards, thereby increasing the frequency of semi-fast services on the Berks and Hants line to hourly, but this uplift in service was not shown in GWR’s base timetable.

An hourly service between Paddington and Bedwyn. This runs semi-fast between Reading and Newbury, then calls at all stations between Newbury and Bedwyn and shunts into the turnback siding immediately to the west of Bedwyn station. Although this service does not pass the site of Devizes Gateway, it has been included as some service options involve extending this service beyond Bedwyn.

GWR’s base timetable also included the proposed Metro West Bristol – Westbury service, as well as all relevant existing freight and other passenger operators’ services.

Network Rail has noted aspirations to increase the number of freight services on the route in RYR Devizes Gateway Advisory Note on Future Freight Forecasting November 2020 and this uplift is not reflected in GWR’s base timetable. It states that under a high growth scenario, the number of Up direction (towards London) freight paths are forecast to increase by 72% by 2033/34 and by 113% by 2043/44 compared to November 2020 levels. Assuming these factors are applied uniformly, this would equate to a requirement for 122 paths per Monday – Friday week between 05:00 and 22:00 by 2033/34, and 151 paths per Monday – Friday week between 05:00 and 22:00 by 2043/44.

Service levels considered

Following discussion with GWR, the following options for serving Devizes Gateway were considered:

Providing an hourly stopping service at Devizes Gateway. This would require extending the Paddington – Bedwyn service to Westbury (requiring one additional unit), or possibly Frome (requiring two additional units).

Providing 2-hourly semi fast service at Devizes Gateway. This would require stopping the existing semi-fast services to Exeter / Paignton / Plymouth at Devizes Gateway.

Providing an hourly semi-fast service at Devizes Gateway. This would require increasing the frequency of the existing semi-fast service to an hourly service. This is a long term aspiration of GWR’s.

Providing an hourly stopping service to a new branch line to Devizes, or to a bay platform at Devizes Gateway. This would require the Paddington – Bedwyn service to be extended to Devizes / Devizes Gateway (requiring one additional unit). No westward connectivity would be provided.

Providing an hourly stopping service at Devizes Gateway by extending Bedwyn Services

Extending the services that currently terminate at Bedwyn to either Westbury or Frome presents some significant operational challenges at the following locations:

Lack of platform capacity to terminate and reverse extended Bedwyn services at both Westbury and Frome; and,

Avoiding a conflict with the extended Bedwyn service and the Up Penzance to Paddington express

Providing sufficient freight capacity

Additional platform capacity at Westbury and Frome

The structure of the base timetable is such that terminating Bedwyn services using existing platforms at either Westbury or Frome would lead to extended platform occupations, severely impacting the operation other services. To provide an hourly service at Devizes Gateway therefore requires new platform capacity at either Frome or Westbury.

Additional platform capacity could be provided at Westbury by reinstating the fourth platform (Platform 0) which is currently an unused platform face with no track. As well as facilitating the provision of services to Devizes, reinstating this platform may well have wider capacity and reliability benefits impacting a wide range of services, and is an option that has previously been considered by Network Rail in their Western Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS).

Extending the service onwards to Frome was considered as an alternative to providing a fourth platform at Westbury; however, this option was not found to be an attractive alternative. The extended running time would trigger the need for an additional unit and result in a turnaround of just over 60 minutes at Frome. Frome station currently comprises a single platform; therefore, to accommodate the extended service, a second platform would need to be provided by reopening the disused former Down platform. This is likely to involve more extensive infrastructure works than Westbury fourth platform as new passenger access, platform surface and lighting would be required (passengers already have access to the fourth platform at Westbury). On balance, it was concluded that reinstating the fourth platform at Westbury, rather than extension to Frome, would provide the best value means to serve Devizes Gateway station.

Removing conflict with Up express

A conflict occurs between the extended Bedwyn service and the Penzance to Paddington express to the west of Bedwyn. Importantly, this only affects Up services (trains towards London) – due to the asymmetric nature of the base timetable the issue does not arise in the Down (away from London) direction. A number of potential solutions to this conflict were explored with further detail provided in Appendix B.

Provide a loop at Bedwyn to allow Up express to overtake the new services from Westbury/Frome (which would recess in the loop). This would allow the existing timetable structure east of Bedwyn to remain unchanged. The only services using this loop would be the extended Bedwyn services, with all other services continuing to use the Up Main. This option does likely offer a workable solution, albeit with a journey time impact from Devizes owing to the need for the Up train to wait in the new loop for around nine minutes. A turnaround of up to 20 minutes would be achieved at Westbury.

When the impact of freight was analysed, it was found that the margin between a Class 59 hauled freight with a trailing load in excess of 4000 tonnes and the extended Bedwyn service was tight at Bedwyn loop. To understand this interaction further, run time modelling into the new loop at Bedwyn should be undertaken in subsequent stages of the project (at this stage, run times were estimated). There is a risk that more powerful locomotives will need to be used on the heaviest Class 7 freight services. In the event that the loop at Bedwyn be no longer required for this service in the longer term, it could have a future use as a location to recess freight provided its length were sufficient.

Overall, this option was considered to be operationally viable subject to the necessary infrastructure being provided and worth exploring further in future development of the project.

Use the existing loops at Newbury or Hungerford to allow the express to overtake, with minimal change to the existing timetable structure. Using the Hungerford loop results in increased journey times for the extended Bedwyn services compared to the Bedwyn loop option set out above as the extended service needs to depart Bedwyn earlier, running ahead of the express and reach Hungerford in time to be passed. It is unable to continue through to Paddington earlier owing to limited capacity east of Reading; therefore the timetable would need to be padded out between Hungerford and Reading. Westbury turnaround reduces to a maximum of 15 mins. Using the existing loops at Newbury further increases journey time and correspondingly reduces turnaround at Westbury such that the turnaround becomes unviable.

This option prevents freight from using the loops at Hungerford and Newbury at the same time as the extended Bedwyn service. Hungerford loop is frequently used for freight to be overtaken by the express from Penzance (the same service that would need to overtake the extended Bedwyn service); therefore, it is not available to be used for the passenger service unless freight capacity is reduced.

Overall, neither option to use the existing loops at Newbury or Hungerford is considered to be operationally viable. Using Hungerford Loop would impact upon freight capacity and using Newbury loop would fail to provide sufficient turnaround at Westbury.

Recast the Up timetable to match the symmetry of the Down timetable. This would involve a substantial recast between Paddington and Paignton / Plymouth to remove the issues that specifically affect the Up direction timetable. This was explored at a relatively high level and although the necessary changes were potentially achievable on the congested Reading to Paddington corridor, they created conflicts with other services using the network to the west of Westbury, and also with freight to the east of Westbury. While recasting the Up timetable might be worth considering for other reasons, particularly if electrification is extended along the Berks & Hants line, it is not considered an operationally viable solution for extending Bedwyn services specifically to serve Devizes.

Ensuring sufficient freight capacity

The option of constructing a loop at Bedwyn provides sufficient capacity for one freight path per hour, increasing to two freight paths per hour in hours the semi-fast service does not operate (notwithstanding the comment above regarding trailing loads in excess of 4000 tonnes hauled by a single Class 59). This is expected to deliver sufficient paths to meet Network Rail’s high growth 2033/4 forecast, but will fall short of Network Rail’s 2043/4 high growth forecast. Further interventions to deliver future freight capacity will need to be considered. Future electrification west of Newbury may provide opportunities to reduce freight run times and make better use of capacity.

Providing a 2-hourly semi-fast service at Devizes Gateway by stopping existing semi-fasts

The option of adding a Devizes Gateway call into the existing two-hourly semi-fast service would exacerbate an already undesirable aspect of the Down direction base timetable west of Exeter which necessitates a stopping service to deviate from its standard pattern and recess at Dawlish Warren (this is explored in greater detail in Appendix B). To overcome this issue, GWR aspire to accelerate the semi-fast service, rather than add stops. Therefore, this option is not considered operationally viable.

Providing a 2 hourly semi-fast service at Devizes Gateway by operating additional semi-fasts

As noted above it is not operationally feasible to stop the existing semi-fasts at Devizes Gateway. However, a 2 hourly semi-fast service could be provided by increase the current two hourly semi-fast service to hourly (as per GWR’s aspiration), and call the additional service at Devizes Gateway.

Adding a Devizes Gateway call to a second semi-fast service is likely to be workable, provided that service can be pathed in the first place (which was out of the scope of this study). Note that there may be challenges to delivering Network Rail freight forecasts if this service does operate. Overall, this option was considered to be operationally viable subject to the service being feasible and worth exploring further in future development of the project. This service may only run as far as Taunton to avoid potentially problematic interactions further west.

Providing an hourly stopping service to Devizes, or to a bay platform at Devizes Gateway

Extension of the Bedwyn service onto a branch to Devizes or into a bay platform at Devizes Gateway is likely to be feasible, although it is unlikely to be possible for the service to call at Pewsey (owing to the Up direction timetable structure). The infrastructure associated with providing a station at Devizes would be higher than for other options and is likely to have less strategic benefit than the infrastructure associated with recessing the service at Bedwyn. This option would not provide any rail connectivity from Devizes Gateway westwards, with passengers wanting to travel in that direction having to change trains at stations to the east, such as Pewsey and doubling back on themselves. This option was considered operationally viable, but should only be taken forward if it is considered to achieve the aspirations of the project.

Conclusions from Operational Analysis

The operational review has highlighted that providing rail services at Devizes is operationally challenging and service provision must be considered alongside the route wide constraints and opportunities. The most viable options are:

To provide an hourly stopping service by extending the Paddington – Bedwyn service to Westbury with calls at Pewsey and Devizes Gateway. This option would require construction of a fourth platform at Westbury (which is already a rail industry aspiration), conversion of the turnback siding at Bedwyn into an Up Passenger Loop and using a more powerful locomotive than a single Class 59 on the heaviest freight services. One additional unit would be required to enable extension of the Bedwyn service.

To provide a 2-hourly semi-fast service by increasing the frequency of the Berks & Hants line semi-fast service to hourly (i.e. extending the 2-hourly Paddington – Newbury shuttle service to Taunton, which is already an aspiration of GWR) with a call at Devizes Gateway in the new service. The feasibility of introducing this service was not assessed as part of this report as it is already a rail industry aspiration irrespective of proposals to open Devizes Gateway station. Whilst additional rolling stock would be required to operate this service, there is not expected to be any further impact from calling the service at Devizes Gateway.

These service options could be introduced individually or in combination. Introducing both options would maximise travel opportunities to and from Devizes Gateway, with frequent local services as well as lower frequency, limited-stop long-distance services to London, Reading and Taunton. They also offer wider benefits to the Berks & Hants line.

Westbury station is a known capacity constraint affecting Berks & Hants line service as well as services on the Portsmouth – Cardiff corridor where aspirations exist for enhanced local services in the Bristol area and on the Trans-Wilts route. The reinstatement of a fourth platform at Westbury could facilitate other service aspirations aside from accommodating the extended Bedwyn service.

It is expected that these services would call at Pewsey in addition to Devizes Gateway. Therefore, their introduction would enable the Pewsey call to be removed from the existing semi-fast service, reducing journey times to passengers travelling further west and potentially improving the timetable west of Exeter. However, the overall service provision at Pewsey would increase to at least hourly, benefiting passengers at this station too.

In addition to offering direct services to stations on the Berks & Hants line, the recommended service options connect Devizes with Westbury, which is an important interchange point for north-south services. The table below sets out the interchanges opportunities that are expected at Westbury. The timetable envisaged for Devizes is heavily constrained by the timetable between Paddington and Reading; therefore, no attempt at this stage has been made to optimise connections at Westbury.

Connections at Westbury from Devizes in a typical hour

Estimated arrival from Devizes	Departure	Waiting time
xx:41 stopping service	xx:31 (even hours) Weymouth	50 mins
xx:52 (even hours) semi-fast	xx:02 Gloucester via Bristol	10 mins

xx:03 Portsmouth Harbour	11 mins

xx:15 Cardiff Central	23 mins

Connections at Westbury to Devizes in a typical hour

Arrival	Waiting time	Estimated departure to Devizes
xx:39 (even hours) Weymouth	22 mins	xx:01 stopping service
xx:53 Gloucester via Bristol	8 mins

xx:09 Portsmouth Harbour	36 mins	xx:45 (odd hours) semi-fast
xx:02 Cardiff Central	43 mins

If there is an appetite to consider changes to the Paddington to Reading Corridor to facilitate better interchange at locations such as Westbury, Devizes Parkway could be integrated into the timetables set out in Wiltshire connected timetable study 5162483/REP/002 and explored further.

Meeting Network Rail’s high growth freight forecast beyond 2033/4 is likely to be challenging if the Paddington – Bedwyn service is extended to Westbury unless further interventions are considered. There may also be challenges to increasing GWR’s semi-fast service to hourly frequency alongside meeting forecast freight, although this issue is as aspiration regardless of proposals to open Devizes Gateway station and, therefore, has not been assessed as part of this study.

Devizes Gateway Station facilities

Whichever of the above sites the station is located at, the following facilities would expect to be provided.

210m platforms suitable for 7 car class 800 trains on both the up and down lines. 9 or 10 car trains would use selective door opening.

A footbridge will be provided with ramps only for step free access to both platforms.

Basic bus stop shelter style waiting facilities.

Ticket machines, help point and information screens. It is assumed the station will be unmanned.

100 space surface car park.

Cycle parking.

Electric vehicle charging points.

Table 3-17 presents a full list of assumptions for the station design that have been costed.

Associated Infrastructure

As concluded in section 2.9.2, in order to deliver a reliable hourly service to Devizes Gateway, it is recommended that the existing hourly service to Bedwyn is extended to Westbury. As per section 2.9.2, to facilitate this service requires providing an additional turn back platforms at Westbury, as well as a loop in the up direction at Bedwyn.

Additional Platform at Westbury

Network Rail previously undertook a study in 2011 to look at options for providing an additional platforms and other capacity enhancements at Westbury. At the time the objective of this work was not to facilitate a service to Devizes Gateway, but to provide wide-ranging capacity, journey time and reliability benefits across a range of services. The conclusions of the study were that reinstating the disused platform next to the existing platform 1 on the southeast side of the station (nominally named as platform 1A), was both technically achievable and operationally desirable. The key issues that the study identified were how to best way of connecting the new platform 1A back into the mainline, particularly at the southern (Down) side of the station where connections could interfere with the existing sidings, and how to provide platforms long enough for 10 car IEP trains.

However, if the only objective is to facilitate a service to Devizes, the requirements of the scheme can be descoped from the wider objectives of this 2011 study. In particular, the new platform 1A can be constructed as a terminating platform rather than a through platform, with a connection to the main line only required on the north (Up) side of the station. And the new platform 1A can be constructed at the same length as the existing platform 1, which is 230m.

The layout of Westbury is shown in the figures below. This shows that there is likely to be space to lay a new track on the currently empty track bed next to platform 1, although without a detailed site survey it is difficult to understand whether the existing down reception line would need to be slewed slightly. The new platform would then be connected to the up reception where it could access the down and up mains through existing switches and crossings.

As such the scope of the project would provide:

Refurbished platform 1A.

Track laid on the existing track bed next to 1A.

Buffer stops at the down (southern end) of the station.

Connection to the up reception at the up end of the station

Signalling provided for the terminating platform road.

A passenger subway connecting the station platforms is located 109m63chains. No formal assessment of the structural condition or capacity of the bridge deck has been undertaken.

Figure 2-32 - Westbury Station looking southeast: Platforms in order from L-R - Proposed new Platform 1A, Platforms 1, 2 and 3

.

Figure 2-33 - Westbury Station: Platforms in order from bottom to top - Proposed new Platform 1A, Platforms 1, 2 and 3

Figure 2-34 - Track Layout at Westbury (reproduced from Quail Map)

Up Passing Loop at Bedwyn

Currently there is a 140m siding off the up main line to the immediate south west of Bedwyn Station. The siding is currently used by terminating Bedwyn services, but in order to extend these services to Devizes Gateway and Westbury the siding needs to be converted into a loop that can allow the extended services travelling from Westbury and Devizes to London be passed by an Up express. This requires extending the siding to accommodate a 10 car IEP and providing a connection from the main line onto the loop at the Western end. There is currently a foot crossing at the western end of the siding which would need replacing with an overbridge. As such the scheme would involve delivering the following elements.

Extending the siding to approximately 300m to allow for looping of 10 car IET (noting that most of the extended Bedwyn services will actually be 5 car IET). The formation is level at this location and there is land available.

Provision of switch and crossing from the Up main line onto the western end of the loop.

Provision of associated signalling.

Figure 2-35 – Google Earth View of Bedwyn station (on RHS) showing existing siding

Station accessibility

All of the proposed station locations for Devizes Gateway are located at least 5 km from the centre of Devizes with relatively limited numbers of people living or working within walking distance of the station. It is therefore essential that any proposal for a new station is considered alongside other public transport improvements to ensure that the station is as accessible as possible to as wide a number of people as possible. The following options and issues have been identified in associated with Wiltshire Council’s Passenger Transport Unit for providing public transport services to the station.

Devizes Gateway shuttle service

Devizes Gateway is close to the existing 270 bus service which runs hourly from Devizes to Devizes via Easterton. The route operates either clockwise or anti-clockwise depending on the time of day to give the villages with the highest loadings the shorter journey to and from Devizes. The bus works as a 272 before and after its 273-circuit maintaining through links to Melksham and Bath for passengers south of Devizes, so has limited opportunities to add extra time to its route.

A dedicated shuttle bus running between Devizes Market Place and the station could offer two round trips an hour. But whilst the Market Place offers connections from other bus routes, it is not a residential location, so if the shuttle was to run hourly to the station it could usefully serve the housing estates in Devizes as well. This could either be by fixed route, demand responsive or a mix of the two depending on time of day. Likewise, the timings of the shuttle would be best adjusted according to the time of day, meeting east bound trains in the morning and west bound trains in the evening. The service pattern during the day would need further consultation to achieve the best timetable.

A Monday-Saturday “day-time” shuttle bus would be in the region of £135,000pa, with evenings adding £61,000pa and Sundays £25,000pa.

Serving the local villages

Besides Devizes there are also the villages of Potterne, West Lavington, Market Lavington, Easterton and Urchfont which are close to Devizes Gateway station locations, which would expect a bus/shared taxi connection. This would be best provided on a Demand Responsive basis with a small vehicle.

Pewsey Vale villages

Villages in the Pewsey Vale would look towards either Pewsey Station or Devizes Gateway station depending on their location and the eventual rail destination. Pewsey Vale falls within Wiltshire Council’s Rural Mobility Fund area so buses could serve the new station on demand.

Alternative fuels

At the present time there are issues with using alternative fuel vehicles in an area such as Devizes, although the technology is moving rapidly so a viable solution could be available by the time the station opens. For this to be a viable solution, however, provision would need to be made to have a sufficiently robust electricity supply at the station.

Bus infrastructure

It is known that simply providing a bus service in the hope that the people will come is not enough. Suitable facilities need to be provided both at the station and in Devizes to make the bus journey as attractive as possible. This means things like quality bus shelters, but also real time passenger information (including buses being shown on railway platform screens and trains appearing on bus screens at appropriate locations). Ideally, displays in the bus should show real-time train information. The bus stop at the station should be located as close to the station entrance as possible, so that passengers can transfer as quickly as possible to the shelter of the ticket issuing machine area and to the platform itself.

Ticketing

The National Bus Strategy has much to say about inter-modal ticketing and bus-to-bus ticketing. Both would likely be essential in the context of a bus service for the proposed station.

Parking

Even with all of the accessibility options described above, it will still be important to provide adequate parking spaces both for pick up and drop off

Active Travel

Wiltshire Council is aiming to develop a Local Cycling and Walking Infrastructure Plan (LCWIP) for Devizes during 2022 using available S106 monies that would include consideration of connections to Devizes Gateway.

Alternative options to a new station

Improving bus connectivity to existing stations

Alternative options to providing a new rail station include the provision of ‘express’ (fast) bus services from Devizes to existing stations. Devizes has bus links to many of its neighbouring towns, and its own town bus network. However, there are areas where the bus offer could be improved with financial support. Some of these additional journeys have potential to become commercial over time, others are unlikely to do so. A balance has to be struck between offering an ‘express’ service which is attractive to end-to-end passengers and a stopping service, which may include minor detours off the most direct route, and opens the service up to a greater number of passengers and, in turn, an improved revenue stream.

The railway line on which the Devizes Gateway station would be situated runs to the east to Newbury, Reading and London, each of which is beyond the distance people would travel by bus. There is a once a day coach service from Devizes to London, but the nature of the roads make this journey slow and unattractive. In the opposite direction, trains would run to Westbury, which is a railway junction offering connections in many directions.

Pewsey

Pewsey is 12 miles to the east of Devizes and is served by trains on the Berks and Hants Line which provides rail connections to Westbury, Reading and London. There is a bus link between Devizes and Pewsey, but it is a lengthy journey and buses currently do not meet returning evening trains which severely deters use. Indeed surveys of passengers at Pewsey undertaken by Wiltshire Council showed no users of the station reached the station by bus.

The station has 77 car park spaces with car access from Devizes taking about 30mins in inter-peak traffic conditions, but longer in the peak. Bus access is provided by the 102 Salisbury Red service running every 2 hours and takes 50 minutes (requires pre booking). The area is, however, the recipient of a Rural Mobility Fund grant which will double the number of buses operating in the Pewsey Vale, albeit the fund specifically excludes Devizes (due to its population size) from the scheme other than as a destination.

Melksham

The nearest station to Devizes is Melksham station on the TransWilts Line which is about 8.5 miles to the west of Devizes and provides services to Westbury and Swindon at a 2-hourly interval. Driving to Melksham would take about 20mins along the A361 and A365 although parking at Melksham is limited, and journey times in the peaks can be much longer. The 272 Faresaver bus service runs between Melksham and Devizes and currently takes about 40 minutes running hourly.

Much better rail connections are available from Chippenham, Westbury and Pewsey on the Great Western Main Line, and Berks and Hants Line respectively, which are all located about the same distance from Devizes.

There is currently an hourly bus service to Melksham, although by serving a large housing estate, industrial area and the town centre in Melksham the bus takes 50% longer to get to the station than a direct route would.

Trains serve Melksham at approximately 2-hourly intervals in each direction, and a direct ‘rail link’ service would be possible to connect with most trains using just one vehicle and two drivers to cover the day (£200,000pa). This does not offer good value for money though, as there are considered to be better ways to facilitate access to the rail network whilst also improving general connectivity to neighbouring towns for Devizes residents.

Westbury

Westbury is 14 miles to the west and is served by trains on the Berks and Hants Line, the Cardiff to Portsmouth Wessex Main Line, and the Bristol to Waterloo via Salisbury Line. The station has 240 car park spaces with car access taking about 30 minutes in inter-peak traffic conditions, but longer in the peak. Bus access is provided by the 87 and 87A Faresaver bus services and takes 40-45 minutes, but is limited to 6 services per day.

Swindon

Swindon is one of the destinations served by trains which call at Melksham, as well as being a destination in itself. There is currently an hourly bus service between Devizes and Swindon and the bus station in Swindon is close to the railway station. Comparisons between a rail-link bus to Melksham and then a train show that the direct bus option takes just 5 minutes longer. Swindon offers direct train services to Reading and London, Bristol (Temple Meads and Parkway), South Wales and Gloucester.

To improve the bus service to run every 30 minutes would take an additional two buses (£270,000pa)

The weakness of the current Devizes to Swindon bus route is its poor evening and Sunday service offer. Extending the evening service, on an hourly basis, to a final departure from Swindon at 23:00 would cost £122,000pa (2 buses) whilst improving the Sunday service to run hourly until early evening would cost £55,000pa (2 buses). The Devizes – Swindon bus also serves the World Heritage Site at Avebury.

Trowbridge

As with Swindon, Trowbridge is served by trains which call at Melksham, and has an hourly bus Devizes-Trowbridge service during the day. Journey time analysis shows the bus from Devizes takes 2 minutes longer (including the walk from the bus stop to the station) than an express rail link bus to Melksham and a train from there. Trowbridge offers direct trains to Bath, Bristol and Cardiff, to Portsmouth and Weymouth, and on a less frequent basis to London (Waterloo).

The weakness of the current Devizes to Trowbridge bus service is its early evening finish and its lack of any Sunday service. Extending the evening service, on an hourly basis, to a final departure from Trowbridge at 23:00 would cost £61,000pa (1 bus) whilst adding a Sunday service to run hourly until early evening would cost £27,000pa (1 bus). The current operator has shown that the route is capable of growth to a near commercial basis.

Buses from Devizes to Trowbridge run through from Swindon so link Trowbridge trains with the World Heritage Site at Avebury.

Chippenham

Chippenham station is served by trains running between London and Bristol Temple Meads as well as the TransWilts trains running via Melksham. However, it has a poor bus service from Devizes due to the low level of population along the route. Indeed, most journeys turn off the direct route and terminate at Calne linking mid-point Bromham with its nearest market towns.

Running times between Devizes and Chippenham do not permit one bus to provide an hourly service, even if the double run to Bromham is omitted. An additional bus on the service would open up new opportunities and could interwork with the existing Devizes – Calne journeys for better efficiency. Whether Devizes to Chippenham offers better connectivity for rail passengers than Devizes to Swindon and Trowbridge is debatable.

Chippenham has fast and frequent rail services to Bath, Bristol and London and is 13.5 miles to the north west of Devizes. Chippenham has a large car park, with car access taking about 30 minutes in inter-peak traffic conditions, but longer in the peak. Bus access is provided hourly by the 33 and X33 Faresaver bus service and takes 40-45mins.

Salisbury

Devizes to Salisbury is a weak bus link and has been on Wiltshire Council’s improvements list for some time, awaiting suitable funding. However, journey analysis shows that even with minimum interchange times bus/train/train/walk to Salisbury is 10 minutes slower than the current circuitous but centre-to-centre bus route.

A direct bus from Devizes to Salisbury would take about 44 minutes end-to-end. However, the bus would pass the Stonehenge Visitor Centre, so would take the slight detour via there during opening hours (which are between commuting times) would probably give a 50-minute end-to-end journey.

Possibilities exist to extend the new Salisbury route to link with the additional Swindon journeys, either as a connection at Devizes or as a through service (no financial saving expected by joining routes together) which would then provide a Stonehenge to Avebury link as well as offering another Swindon – Salisbury option with an end-to-end journey time in the region of 1 hour 40 minutes (currently the bus runs via Marlborough, Pewsey and Amesbury taking 1 hour 57 minutes).

Bath and Bristol

Using minimum journey and connection times, Devizes Market Place to Bath Spa by train takes an absolute minimum of 56 minutes, whereas the bus completes the journey in 59 minutes, every hour, during the day.

Bristol is a more complex comparison, due to the size of the city. Bath to Bristol city centre by bus takes 53 minutes against 13 minutes by train to Temple Meads Station which is some way out of the city centre (9 minutes by bus, without considering the train to bus connection). However, for journeys to north Bristol the train from Swindon to Bristol Parkway may be more appropriate, or changing at Temple Meads, for a stopping train to Filton Abbey Wood.

An express bus from Devizes to Bath (omitting Bowerhill and Melksham town centre) could make the journey in 45 minutes.

Evening Buses – Demand Responsive

For evening services, as passenger numbers are likely to be relatively low, and ultimate destinations are likely to be varied, a Demand Responsive Service could be a better option, using smaller vehicles than conventional buses on fixed timetables. The exact method of working would need to be determined by public consultation. However, if the aim was to provide a connection with passengers alighting trains then no booking would be needed as the bus would be at the station already and the driver would then serve the various estates as requested by those on board. If a connection to transport passengers to train services was also required, then some sort of booking and routing system would be needed.

The booking and routing element of DRT is often a significant cost, but as the technology matures and DRT comes more common place under the National Bus Strategy it should be possible to add-on schemes at more sustainable rates.

DRT might also work for Sunday services, where none currently exist. However, if patronage was sufficient then full-size buses would be needed, running to fixed routes.

Reopening parts of the Devizes Branch Line

Devizes used to have two railway stations, one in the town centre and one just outside called Pans Lane Halt, on a now closed branch line running. An alternative option to opening a new station on the existing Berks and Hants main line would be to build a 4km branch line to serve a new station within Devizes, either by re-instating some of the old branch line, or by building a new alignment.

Such a proposal would be very attractive in terms of accessibility, as it could provide a station much closer to the population, employment and cultural attractions of Devizes than any of the station options on the Berks and Hants Line, and as such might attract much higher levels of demand. Service provision to the new station could be provided by extending London to Bedwyn services to Devizes, where they would terminate, avoiding problems with terminating services at Westbury or elsewhere.

However, reinstating the old branch line is not an easy option as much of the alignment within Devizes has since been developed for housing. Building a new route is therefore a significant and complex project likely to incur costs that are likely to be an order of magnitude higher than simply opening a new station on the existing line. The complexity of this option and the need to compulsory purchase large amounts of land are also likely to mean that this option will attract some highly vocal opposition.

A new branch line would also only serve destination to the east of Devizes, such as Pewsey, Bedwyn, Hungerford, Reading and London. Travellers wishing to travel west woud need to travel to Pewsey and then double back on themselves potentially negating any journey time benefits over other modes.

Risks, Constraints and Dependencies

Key risks identified with the delivery of the station options include:

Extending the Bedwyn services to Westbury or Frome to provide an hourly service is likely to require additional infrastructure, including an additional platform at Westbury for reversing services and the provision of a loop at Bedwyn at least 1km long. Delivering these enhancements has much wider benefits and impacts than just being able to extend Bedwyn services, and they form part of a long standing aspiration of Network Rail and GWR to improve capacity and resilience of the rail network in the region. Nevertheless, without these enhancements, services that are able to stop at Devizes would be limited.

Stopping the existing two hourly Exeter semi-fast services at Devizes appears operationally difficult.

Operating an additional two hourly Exeter semi-fast service that could stop at Devizes might be a solution but further work on understanding the impact on other services on the route is required. This option may also require additional train sets

The semi-fast Exeter services are usually 9 or 10 car IETs (Intercity Express Trains) and would require the use of selective door opening to stop at short platforms. This is already common practice, with station such as Hungerford having 150m platforms, but it would need regulatory approval for the opening of a new station with selective door opening.

The station would need to have a high-quality public transport connection, such as express shuttle bus that is integrated into the rail timetable, for passengers to reach Devizes town centre from the station. To provide this kind of service may require additional costs and ongoing financial support.

If land acquisition is more difficult than expected, then this would lead to higher costs and extended delivery timescales.

The station is sited in a designated Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) which could impede delivery of the scheme, particularly if Natural England object to the scheme

Associated road works are likely to be needed to ensure that the access roads can accommodate additional traffic.

An initial risk register is provided in Table 6-6.

Strategic Assessment of Options

A tailored high-level Multi-Criteria Assessment Framework (MCAF) has been developed to assess the three scheme options against the project’s Critical Success Factors (CSFs), which are the attributes essential for the successful delivery of the project. It is important to note that the identified critical success factors are all crucial, rather than desirable, although they are not set at a level which could exclude potential important options at this stage of the optioneering process for the Devizes Gateway project. The CSFs cover a breadth of considerations across the Business Case appraisal process and are well-aligned with DfT and HM Treasury Guidance, as well as with the scheme’s objectives.

In line with the guidance for this stage of assessment, the MCAF scoring has been undertaken using a 3-point qualitative scoring system with all the criteria given the same weighting. Table 2-14 sets out the alignment of the assessment criteria with the specific components of the objectives, and the data and rationale used for the judgement of scoring. The assessment is then presented in Table 2-15.

Table 2-14: Criteria for Option Assessment

Critical Success Factors	Aligned Scheme Objectives	Source of Data Used for Assessment	Rationale for Scoring
Policy Fit	Alignment with policy	Professional judgement of alignment to objectives	+1 – the intervention is aligned with a lot of policy 0 – the intervention is aligned with some policy -1 – the intervention has little or no alignment with policy
Contribution to Economic Growth	Improve access to and from employment, commercial, health, social and leisure facilities	Proximity to key facilities in the study area	+1 – the intervention is in close proximity to key facilities and/or improves access 0 – neutral impact, the intervention is not in close some proximity to key facilities and does not improve access -1 – the intervention restricts access to/from key facilities

Support the cohesion of economic centres and regeneration areas	Improved journey times between economic centres and regeneration areas	+1 – the intervention improves journey times 0 – neutral impact, the intervention does not improve journey times -1 – the intervention increases journey times
Contribution to Improved Transport Network	Provide improved rail access and improved interchange with other modes	Provision of rail service and interchange	+1 – the intervention improves local rail services and interchange 0 – neutral impact, the intervention improves local rail services or interchange -1 – the intervention does not improve local rail services or interchange

Provide strategic rail connections to Trowbridge, Melksham, Chippenham and Swindon	Provides a rail connection to Trowbridge, Melksham, Chippenham and Swindon	+1 – the intervention provides a direct rail connection to key commuter destinations 0 – neutral impact, the intervention provides an indirect rail connection to key commuter destinations -1 – the intervention does not provide a rail connection to key commuter destinations

Address congestion on the highway and surrounding local road network	Demand for scheme option	+1 – the intervention would reduce delays 0 – neutral impact, the intervention will have minimal to no delay change impacts -1 – the intervention will increase delays
Contribution to Quality of Life	Address carbon emissions and air quality	Demand for scheme option	+1 – the intervention would significantly encourage modal shift away from private car 0 – neutral impact, the intervention would have a small impact on modal shift away from private car -1 – the intervention would have no impact on modal shift away from private car

Address deprivation and social inclusion	Proximity of scheme to areas of deprivation	+1 – the intervention is in close proximity to areas of deprivation 0 – neutral impact, the intervention is not in close some proximity to areas of deprivation -1 – the intervention restricts access to/from areas of deprivation
Scheme Deliverability	Affordability	Initial cost brackets	+1 – the intervention’s capital costs are expected to be below £30m 0 – the intervention’s capital costs are expected to be between £30m and £50m -1 – the intervention’s capital costs are expected to be more than £50m For smaller interventions (e.g. junction improvements) professional judgement has been applied to the cost scoring.

Engineering and environmental constraints	Professional judgement and knowledge of the scheme and local area, and scheme drawings and design	+1 – the intervention’s delivery faces no key constraints 0 – the intervention’s delivery faces some constraints which may be mitigated -1 – the intervention’s delivery faces key constraints and other constraints which cannot be mitigated

Risks and uncertainties	Professional judgement as to the key delivery risks	+1 – the intervention’s delivery faces limited delivery risks 0 – the intervention’s delivery faces some delivery risks which may be mitigated -1 – the intervention’s delivery faces some key delivery risks

Accessibility	Journey time analysis from Devizes	+1 – there are short journey times to the intervention 0 – journey times to the intervention are acceptable -1 – there are long journey times to the intervention
	Project delivery timescales	Professional judgement as to how long the project might take to deliver	+1 – the intervention can be delivered in under 3 years 0 – the intervention can be delivered in between 3 and 5 years -1 – the intervention is unlikely to be delivered in over 5 years
Stakeholder Support	Public acceptability	Proximity of the scheme to built-up areas, and professional judgement	+1 – the intervention is not in proximity to built-up areas and is likely to be publicly acceptable 0 – neutral impact, the intervention is in some proximity to built-up areas and is unlikely to face significant public opposition -1 – the intervention is in proximity to built-up areas and is likely to face public opposition

Table 2-15: Multi Criteria Assessment of Options

Interventions	Policy Fit	Contribution to Economic Growth	Contribution to Improved Transport Network	Contribution to Quality of Life	Scheme Deliverability	Stakeholder Support	Total Score

Alignment with key policies and strategies	Improve access to and from employment, commercial, health, social and leisure facilities	Support the cohesion of economic centres and regeneration areas	Provide improved rail access and improved interchange with other modes	Provide strategic rail connections to key commuter destinations	Address congestion on the highway and surrounding local road network	Address carbon emissions air quality	Address deprivation and social inclusion	Affordability	Engineering and environmental constraints	Risks and uncertainties	Project delivery timescales	Accessibility	Public acceptability

Rail station at Lydeway site	Score	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	1	8

Summary of performance and key constraints	The rail station at Lydeway is well aligned with policy objectives in terms of improving public transport options in Wiltshire to deliver enhanced connectivity, more travel options, promoting modal shift and supporting economic regeneration and housing delivery. A limitation of the rail site however is that the Lydeway location is not particularly close to Devizes town centre (3.5 miles), which means onward connectivity is required (e.g. shuttle bus services); this would require additional expenditure.
Rail station at Lavington site	Score	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	1	8

Summary of performance and key constraints	The rail station at Lavington is well aligned with policy objectives in terms of improving public transport options in Wiltshire to deliver enhanced connectivity, more travel options, promoting modal shift and supporting economic regeneration and housing delivery. A limitation of the rail site however is that the Lavington location is not particularly close to Devizes town centre and is twice as far away than the Lydeway option. Consequently, the onward connectivity requirement would be more costly. Unlike Lydeway, there are however some local villages such as Potterne, Littleton Panell, Great Cheverell and Market Lavington that would be much closer to the station.
Re-opening of branch line into Devizes	Score	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	-1	-1	-1	-1	1	1	6

Summary of performance and key constraints	The re-opening of the branch line into Devizes is well aligned with policy as it will improve public transport options in Wiltshire to deliver enhanced connectivity, more travel options, promoting modal shift and supporting economic regeneration and housing delivery. There are, however, limitations of this scheme option in terms of deliverability and cost, as delivering additional rail line will incur considerable cost, and the original rail line may be obstructed by the growth of Devizes.
Public transport services to existing stations	Score	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	8

Summary of performance and key constraints	Providing bus services from Devizes to existing rail stations in the county will deliver a number of policy objectives. However, providing this new bus link to existing stations may not be an attractive option due to the perceived lack of convenience caused by adding an additional leg to a journey, one which may be unreliable due to congestion. The option would deliver less economic growth, social inclusion and provide fewer opportunities to support transformational growth and development. It may also be less attractive for the tourist economy as it offers less connectivity benefit compared to rail. While the delivery of additional bus services is relatively low risk, funding and operating support would likely be required.
Improved public transport connections	Score	1	1	0	-1	-1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	6

Summary of performance	Improving bus services to and from Devizes and the wider region will deliver a number of policy objectives. However, improved bus links generally favour shorter journeys, so longer distance journeys (Bath, Bristol, Swindon, London) are not an attractive option. Buses are inherently less reliable and less attractive than rail to many users as a form of travel. Given the relative lack of improved connectivity that bus improvement offer, this option would therefore deliver less economic growth, social inclusion and provide fewer opportunities to support transformational growth and development. It may also be less attractive for the tourist economy as it offers less connectivity benefit compared to rail. While the delivery of bus improvements is relatively low risk, funding and operating support would likely be required.

Strategic Case Summary and Conclusions

Context and Case for Intervention

Devizes is reliant on the private car and the highway network for movement. The road network is integral for commuting, both to and from Devizes, as well as business and tourism activities. The lack of a convenient, connected public transport network between the town and key destinations in turn reinforces the reliance on the private car for journeys. Analysis indicates that equivalent journey times for public transport far exceed those of the private car.

As a consequence, communities in Devizes can feel disconnected due to a lack of accessibility; this impedes convenient access for employment, leisure and business opportunities. It is therefore important for these communities to ‘level-up’ by becoming more connected. The lack of a viable alternative to the private car constrains efficient movement, economic regeneration and regional connectivity. The delivery of planned residential and employment growth will add additional trips to the constrained highway network, which will lead to further congestion issues.

Improved accessibility, particularly if it can be provided to key centres of population and employment, such as Melksham and Trowbridge in Wiltshire and further afield in Bristol and Swindon, will support meeting wider local and national objectives to increase accessibility to employment, education and leisure services, supporting development of new jobs and improving tourist opportunities. It will also support local objectives to deliver new housing and development opportunities through introducing an additional travel option.

Simultaneously the Devizes Community Area is seeking to deliver a step-change in its tourism offer, further enhancing its role as a tourist hub and attraction. The town has plans to regenerate key tourist attractions and to become a key location on the Great West Way. The lack of an efficient and convenient public transport network hampers access to the town which subsequently impacts its attractiveness as a place to visit.

Devizes Gateway

To meet these requirements this SOC has considered three options to deliver a new railway station serving Devizes; a station at Lydeway, a station at Lavington and re-instating the rail line into Devizes. All of these options would provide a transformative step change in connectivity. Alternative options to improve bus services to existing stations has also been considered, although not to the same level of detail as the station-based options.

At this stage, both the Lydeway and Lavington station options are credible locations, with no significant impediments identified to constructing a relatively basic two platform station with a car park. The Lydeway site is located slightly closer to Devizes than the Lavington site, which makes access a little easier and quicker for residents of Devizes. However, the Lavington site is situated nearer outlying villages, and does therefore have more people located in close proximity to the station.

A key issue for both station locations is how to deliver a rail service to the station. Initial work to review the operational feasibility of providing a train service to the station, undertaken in consultation with Network Rail and GWR shows that to deliver a train service to the station faces some significant challenges. Although there are a number of potential solutions available, they may require further infrastructure investment across other parts of the network and the purchase of additional rolling stock. Even then it is unlikely that the station will be served by more than one train per hour, with some options having one train every two hours.

Due to the distance of the two station options from Devizes town centre, public transport solutions would need to be provided as part of the rail scheme. This will add further cost to delivery.

Alternative Options

Re-introducing the rail line into Devizes would offer the greatest convenience advantage as it would be situated closer to the town centre, but delivering this option would be considerably more costly and comes with deliverability risks associated with assessing the potential for re-introducing the historic rail line which has since been built over in places.

While improving bus connectivity in the area may be welcomed, and is more affordable, it may not provide the step change in the town’s public transport offering and as such it would be unlikely to drive the transformative connectivity benefits, economic impacts and development opportunities that are considered crucial to the success of the scheme.

Economic Case

Introduction to the Economic Case

The purpose of the Economic Case is to demonstrate the value for money of the scheme in terms of the use of public funds. It would normally do this through assessments of the scheme’s likely costs and benefits. All the economic, environmental, social and distributional impacts of a proposal would be examined, using either qualitative, quantitative or monetised information. In line with Treasury’s appraisal requirements, the impacts considered would not be limited to those directly affecting the measured economy, nor to those which can be monetised.

A key limitation to the scope of this Economic Case arises from the lack of detailed demand forecasts. Undertaking an accurate assessment of the demand and benefits would require the use of a multi-modal demand forecast model of the study area, populated with data on current trip patterns and journey opportunities that can assess any changes in people’s travel choices, including the rerouting and redistribution of trips, mode shift, and trip generation. Unfortunately, at this early stage of the scheme’s development no such model exists and developing such a model is out of scope of the current study. Therefore, the purpose of this Economic Case is to gauge the scheme’s potential value for money position and to help identify the potential types of risks and opportunities relating to the balance of costs and benefits.

Furthermore, at this early stage of the scheme’s development it is not considered proportionate to assess all potential impacts, nor undertake detailed appraisals that might otherwise help differentiate between sub-options. Instead, and in line with DfT’s RYR and TAG guidance, a high level and proportionate assessment of the likely benefits has been undertaken using pre-existing evidence sources to understand the possible scales of impacts of the overall scheme across some of the key benefit categories. The study considers the key assumptions and conditions that would be needed to drive those benefits and the likely plausibility of those assumptions drawing on high level analysis, context of what is known about the study area, or any evidence and benchmarking from similar kinds of schemes where available.

The key parameters that will drive the scheme’s value for money, and which therefore also provide the focus of the economic case analysis within this chapter, are as follows:

Time Savings: The amount of time saved by people using the station / railway over alternative modes drives benefits. The greater the average time saving the higher the likely benefits.

Demand: The likely level of demand using the new station is a critical driver of both benefit and revenues. The more people use the station the higher the likely benefits.

Mode Shift: Encouraging mode shift from road to rail benefits not only those users who experience faster journey times, but also the wider community from decreased congestion, improved air quality and reduced carbon emissions. Increased mode shift will generate increased benefits.

Wider Economic Impacts: Wider impacts are the economic productivity gains resulting from improvements in how well businesses are connected to each other as well as potential employees, and benefits arising from structural changes as businesses and households relocate. For some types of scheme, particularly those that are providing transformative opportunities resulting in structural changes to the locations of homes and businesses, these wider benefits can be a key component of the business case.

Costs: The scheme’s cost include both the initial capital costs of construction, and the ongoing costs of operation including maintenance and renewal.

Structure of the Economic Case

The Economic Case is structured around understanding the range of assumptions that would be needed to drive a medium value for money assessment. For each parameter identified in Section 3.1 above, benchmarked analysis has been undertaken to understand the potential range of plausible assumptions that might reasonably be expected. These high-level assumptions have then been tested within a TAG compliant appraisal process to understand the likelihood of the scheme achieving value for money.

As such the Economic Case is structured around the following sections:

Journey time savings

Demand

Costs

Economic appraisal

Summary and conclusions

Journey Time Impacts

As shown in Section 2.3.4 of the Strategic Case, Devizes and its environs suffer from relatively poor public transport connectivity, in large part due a lack of a convenient rail station that results in the town’s relative isolation from the rail network.

This section examines the impact on accessibility and journey times that a proposed station at Devizes Gateway will have across a selection of different journeys. As well as showing the size of journey time savings provided by the new station, the analysis shows the particular origins and destinations that are most likely to benefit from using the station, and hence the kind of users that the station might attract. The resulting estimates of journey time saving are then fed into the economic appraisal in Section 3.6.

TRACC Analysis

To understand the journey time savings that a new station at Devizes Gateway could offer, public transport accessibility analysis has been undertaken using Basemap TRACC software and Google Maps route planner. Basemap TRACC determines the public transport journey time between any origin and destination pair using public transport timetable data supplemented with assumptions around walking speeds and interchange times. The outputs from TRACC can be presented graphically to show journey time isochrones or accessibility contours from any particular location.

For the purpose of the accessibility analysis it has been assumed that Devizes Gateway station is located at the Lydeway site, and that it is served by an hourly London to Exeter semi fast service based around the January 2020 timetable, with journey times between Pewsey and Westbury extended by 5 minutes to accommodate a stop at Devizes.

It is also assumed that a shuttle bus would operate from Devizes Market Place to the new railway station at Lydeway. This would operate with an 11 minute journey time which is consistent with the journey times of existing bus routes, with intermediate stops assumed to be at the same places as existing bus services on that corridor such as the 101/102 bus services

Figure 3-1 below shows areas accessible to Devizes Market Place within a 90 minute journey time without a station at Devizes Gateway. Figure 3-2 shows the same scenario, but with a Devizes Gateway station at the Lydeway site connected by shuttle bus to the town centre.

Figure 3-1 - Access to Devizes during the morning peak period (0700-100) by public transport without Devizes Gateway

Figure 3-2 - Access to Devizes during the morning peak period (0700-100) by public transport with a call at the proposed Lydeway station

From comparing these two figures it can be seen that the introduction of the rail service to the proposed Lydeway station provides an improvement in long distance connectivity to the east, with Newbury becoming accessible within 60 minutes and Reading being accessible within 80 minutes. The proposed introduction of the rail service provides limited improvements to connectivity within Wiltshire and the south west, this is to be expected as the current bus network is more competitive when considering the need to drive or use other means of transport to access the proposed rail station. The lack of improvements in journey times seen to areas such as Bristol and Chippenham can be attributed to the lack of a direct service linking the proposed Lydeway station and the indirect nature of the railway line from Westbury to Bristol particularly in the Bradford and Bath areas. This said, there are improvements in journey times to both Warminster and Salisbury as a result of the proposed station due to the direct connections afforded by the timetabled train service.

Figure 3-3 shows the change in public transport journey times from Devizes town centre to a range of destinations. This shows how the places with the biggest journey time saving, such as Newbury, Reading, London and Exeter are located at locations served directly by trains on the existing Great Western Main Line to the west and east of Devizes. Meanwhile places to the north or south, such as Bath, Bristol or Melksham that would require accessing via an interchange at Westbury see little or no journey time saving.

Figure 3-3 - Average public transport journey time reduction from Devizes due to scheme

Map Description automatically generated

Devizes to London and Reading

Further analysis of some specific flows has been undertaken using Google Maps to determine current journey times to key locations from Devizes. All estimated current journey times start from The Pelican Bus Stop near Devizes Market Place (SN10 1HT) and consider the fastest possible journey of each type initiating in the AM-peak period on a weekday for the week commencing the 17th May 2021. Current estimated journey times were determined for the three categories outlined in Table 3-1.

Table 3-1 - Summary of estimated journey time variants

Type	Description	Method
Public transport only	Entire trip completed by public transport (including walking in-between modes).	Quickest public transport only journey identified by Google Maps. Includes waiting time. It is assumed that no time is spent waiting for the first leg of the trip to begin. Service fare and number of interchanges were not considered.
Kiss-and-ride	User is dropped off at a nearby station and completes the remainder of the journey via train. Although not reported it would be expected that park and ride and taxi would have similar journey times to kiss and ride.	Quickest public transport only journey from local train stations were considered first. Estimated time to drive to each station was then added to determine the quickest overall kiss-and-ride journey. Assumes that the user is dropped off at the station at the time of train departure.
Car only	Entire trip completed by private vehicle.	Quickest predicted car journey. Where predicted journey time is a range, the lower of the two values has been used (e.g. for 45 to 70 minutes, 45 minutes has been used).

Using the assumptions above, the journey times from Devizes to London in the AM peak are shown in Figure 3-4 below, broken down into the constituent legs of the journey.

Figure 3-4 - Journey times from Devizes town centre to London in AM peak*

*Destination is London Paddington Train Station, W2 1HB.

Currently the quickest way to get to Reading or London from Devizes by public transport involves taking a bus to either Melksham or Chippenham, and the journey to London therefore takes over 2 hours including a change of train if travelling via Melksham. Although Pewsey might seem a good option for getting to London the current bus connection from Devizes to Pewsey is very poor and for most people reliant on public transport connections this is not a viable option.

A new station at Devizes Gateway served by a direct shuttle bus, would allow a journey to London or Reading to be undertaken much more quickly than at present. Devizes Market Place becomes within 70 minutes of the Reading, and the majority of the town is in reach of Reading within 90 minutes when using public transport. This is a significant improvement considering none of the local area is currently within 90 minutes of Reading. Overall, the journey time saving from the centre of Devizes to London or Reading could be over half an hour.

For those users with access to a car who can reach a local rail head either via kiss and ride or park and ride, or users of taxis, the impact of Devizes Gateway has a more marginal impact on journey times. This is because although Devizes Gateway is quicker and easier to access by car from Devizes than other stations in the region such as Swindon, Chippenham or Pewsey, the rail service to London from those stations offers faster and more frequent services to London than would be provided at Devizes Gateway. The result is that for users with access to a car Devizes Gateway Station would only be slightly more attractive than driving a bit further to other stations in the area, and then using faster, more frequent and potentially cheaper, rail services from those stations.

The change in journey times, with and without the Gateway Station, from different locations within and around Devizes to Reading and London is shown in Figure 3-5 below. This shows that journey time savings of over an hour are experienced by those in the immediate vicinity of the Gateway station, reducing to half an hour for those living in the centre of Devizes. However, the figure shows that there are a wide range of other locations, including those to the north east and north west of Devizes will also gain journey time savings, and would therefore make use of the station.

Figure 3-5 – Change in public transport journey time from Devizes to Reading with and without Devizes Gateway Station

Devizes to Bath and Bristol

Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7 below show the breakdown in journey times with and without Devizes Gateway Station to Bath and Bristol.

Figure 3-6 - Journey times from Devizes town centre to Bath Spa in AM peak*

*Destination is Bath Spa Train Station, BA1 1SU.

Figure 3-7 - Journey times from Devizes town centre to Bristol in AM peak*

*Destination is Bristol Temple Meads Train Station, BS1 6QF.

Currently the best way to get to Bath or Bristol from the centre of Devizes by public transport is to take a bus to Bath which takes 64 minutes. Travelling from the centre of Devizes via a new station at Devizes Gateway is unlikely to be competitive with this journey time, as any rail journey will need to make an interchange at Westbury and incur a rail journey time of 54 minutes to Bath and 74 minutes to Bristol, plus additional journey time needed to access the station.

Figure 3-8 below shows that for journeys originating from the south of Devizes along the A432 corridor (such as near the Green Lane Playing Fields) a small journey time saving might be obtainable as those areas are both nearer Devizes Gateway and are not directly served by existing bus routes to Bath. The size of the population within these areas is fairly small, and it has been determined that only around 3,000 people who would gain access to Bath within 90 minutes if the station was built.

Kiss and ride and park and ride trips from the centre of Devizes to Bath or Bristol via a Devizes Gateway station are unlikely to be quicker than using Trowbridge as a railhead. However, for users beginning their trip in villages to the south east of Devizes such as Urchfont and Chirton it may be quicker to travel via the Gateway station, particularly if the car parking facilities are cheap and easy to use.

Car-only trips remain the quickest option for users travelling to Bristol, however congestion and parking cost and availability are likely to discourage car trips directly to the city

Figure 3-8 – Change in public transport journey time from Devizes to Bath

Devizes to Trowbridge

Figure 3-9 below shows the breakdown in journey times with and without Devizes Gateway Station to Trowbridge, while Figure 3-10 shows the difference in journey time to Trowbridge with and with the station. It is evident that the provision of a station at Lydeway would offer improved journey times for those living along the A342 route, however as with accessing Bath or Bristol, there is however limited change expected for journey times across the rest of the town, which is a result of an existing bus service from Devizes Market Place having a similar journey time.

Figure 3-9 - Journey times from Devizes town centre to Trowbridge in AM peak*

*Destination is Trowbridge Train Station, BA14 8HW

Figure 3-10 – Change in public transport journey time from Devizes to Trowbridge

Devizes to Swindon

Figure 3-11 shows the breakdown in journey times with and without Devizes Gateway Station to Swindon, for which it is clear that Devizes Gateway is unlikely to have any impact on journey times. Similarly, Devizes Gateway has very little impact on the accessibility of Chippenham.

Figure 3-11 – Journey times from Devizes town centre to Swindon in AM peak *

*Destination is Swindon Train Station, SN1 1DQ.

Devizes to Westbury and Exeter

Figure 3-12 below shows the breakdown in journey times with and without Devizes Gateway Station to Westbury. The provision of a station at Lydeway would offer improved journey times compared to the current situation for both public transport-only and kiss-and-ride trips to Westbury, resulting in journey time savings to other locations to the south west on the Great Western Main Line (e.g. Frome, Taunton, Exeter). With Trowbridge station only being marginally closer to Devizes than Westbury, kiss-and-ride trips are largely impractical compared to direct car trips. With a direct service to Westbury, a station at Devizes offers a kiss-and-ride journey time which is comparable to car-only trips, offering a six-minute saving on current direct car trips.

Figure 3-12 - Journey times from Devizes town centre to Westbury in AM peak *

*Destination is Westbury Train Station, BA13 4HP.

Journey time by car

Figure 3-13 outlines the average journey time to central Devizes during the morning peak. This shows there is good access to places such as Chippenham, Melksham and Westbury within 20 to 30 minutes, and further afield areas such as Swindon and Bath are accessible within 40 minutes. Access extends further to include parts of Bristol which can be reached within the 60 minute time period. It should be noted however that this analysis takes no account of parking availability or costs.

Figure 3-13 - Average journey times to Devizes during a morning peak period, by car

Summary of Journey Time Analysis

Table 3-2 below summarises the potential journey time savings available to different users as assessed using the previously presented analysis.

Table 3-2 - Summary of with and without scheme journey times (in minutes)

	Scenario	PT-only	Kiss-and-ride
To London (Reading, and Newbury will experience similar journey time savings)	Without scheme	124	79

With scheme	93	77

Saving	31	2
To Bristol	Without scheme	85	61

With scheme	97	79

Saving	-12	-18
To Bath	Without scheme	63	42

With scheme	77	59

Saving	-14	-17
To Swindon	Without scheme	58	39

With scheme	110	92

Saving	-52	-53
To Trowbridge	Without scheme	41	25

With scheme	55	37

Saving	-14	-12
To Westbury (Depending on the service provision Frome, Taunton and Exeter will experience similar journey time savings)	Without scheme	50	27

With scheme	34	16

Saving	1	11

Journey time analysis was undertaken to show the impact on journey times of a new Gateway Station. The analysis shows that the provision of a Devizes Gateway Station would offer significant public transport connectivity improvements to those areas that can reached be directly from rail services calling at Devizes. This means that journeys taken wholly by public transport to or from Devizes to locations directly on the Great Western Main Line such as Newbury, Reading, London, Westbury, Frome, Taunton and Exeter could all be quicker to reach via Devizes Gateway.

This improvement in connectivity to the South East offers opportunities for access to key nodes of employment, as well as providing a long-term strategic connection to long distance rail services from Reading as well as the proposed Old Oak Common HS2 station which would provide this area of Wiltshire stronger long-distance connectivity across England.

For most people in Devizes, journeys to locations that are not served by direct trains from Devizes Gateway, such as Bath, Bristol, Chippenham and Swindon, and which all would require at least one change of train, are unlikely to be any quicker via Devizes Gateway than simply using the existing bus-based options. However, for those living nearer to the proposed station sites, journeys would become quicker, though the sizes of these populations are relatively small.

For those users with access to a car or taxi, and who can therefore drive to alternative local stations in the area, and either park or get dropped off, the journey time saving becomes more marginal. While the drive to alternative stations may take slightly longer, the usually better rail service from those stations with more frequent services running directly to their destination, often more than offsets any gains that may be realised from the shorter drive to Devizes Gateway.

In summary, it would seem that the most likely users of Devizes Gateway are users without access to a car (which includes anyone arriving at Devizes as a destination) who are travelling to or from London, Reading and Newbury in the East, and Westbury, Frome, Taunton and Exeter in the South West. These journeys are all relatively longer distance trips, which implies that these journeys may comprise occasional business or leisure trips rather than regular commuting.

Finally, it is clear that, for the station to succeed, a well-timed interchanging bus service from Devizes Market Place to the station would be essential. Without such a shuttle bus the public transport accessibility would be very poor, and the station would be limited to either those with a car, for whom other stations may be more attractive, or the small number who live within the immediate vicinity of the station.

Calculation of Average Journey Time savings via Devizes Gateway

To determine an average journey time saving across all journeys being undertaken from Devizes Gateway, TRACC software was used to assess the public transport journey times with and without the Devizes Gateway to every station in the UK. A similar assessment of the journey time saving that can be obtained using a car to access the station was also made using a combination of Google Maps and TRACC. A summary of these journey time savings are shown in Table 3-3.

Table 3-3 - Journey time savings to key destinations via Devizes Gateway

Origin/destination station	Average journey time saving in minutes when using bus to access the station	Average journey time saving in minutes when using car to access the station	Proportion of users at Pewsey travelling to or from origin/destination station
London Paddington	34	2	52.3%
Westbury	12	11	12.4%
Newbury	74	2	9.4%
Reading	37	2	8.6%
Castle Cary	33	11	2.3%
Taunton	35	11	1.5%
Exeter St Davids	38	11	1.2%
Hungerford	70	2	0.9%
Bristol Temple M	0	0	0.8%
Bath Spa	0	0	0.7%
Tiverton Parkway	35	11	0.7%
Staines	38	2	0.6%
Oxford	19	2	0.5%
Trowbridge	0	0	0.4%
Totnes	33	11	0.4%
West Drayton	38	2	0.3%
Newton Abbot	36	11	0.3%
Plymouth	36	11	0.3%
Theale	52	2	0.3%
Bradford On Avon	0	0	0.2%
Gatwick Airport	18	2	0.2%
Maidenhead	34	2	0.1%
Slough	38	2	0.1%
Cambridge	0	2	0.1%
Paignton	41	11	0.1%
Demand Weighted Average (using Pewsey Trip Distribution)	35	4	
Assumed mode share at Devizes	40%	60%	
Average journey time saving across all access modes and destinations	16 minutes	

The trip distribution seen at Pewsey is seen a good comparator of likely trip distribution likely to be seen at Devizes as it will be served by similar services going to the same destinations. The MOIRA model was therefore used to determine the trip distribution at Pewsey station, to show where existing users of the station travel to and from. This showed that over half of users at Pewsey are going to and from London.

The access mode at Pewsey and Westbury stations were also examined. Currently very few users of Pewsey or Westbury access by bus. At both stations around a third of users access via walk or cycle, with the rest mainly accessing by car. In part this is perhaps due to the poor bus links provided at both stations. However, given that Devizes Gateway will be integrated into the bus network, and have a fast shuttle running to the town centre timed to connect with rail services, it is expected that the public transport mode share at Devizes will be much higher.

Assuming an access mode share at Devizes Gateway of 40% by bus and 60% by car and that the journey distribution at Devizes Gateway is the same as Pewsey, the demand weighted average journey time saving is found to be 16 minutes.

If the car mode share is forecast to be higher then the average journey time saving will be lower. For instance, if the access mode share is 80% by car and 20% by bus, then the average journey time saving will reduce to 10 minutes.

The analysis is also sensitive to assumptions around where people from Devizes will be travelling too. For instance, if it is assumed that Devizes will have a trip distribution similar to Westbury rather than Pewsey station, then the average journey time saving also reduces to 7 minutes. This is because a much lower proportion of travellers from Westbury travel to London, and a much higher proportion travel to Bath and Bristol, destinations which do not offer significant journey time savings from Devizes.

Demand

Introduction to Demand Forecasting

The numbers of users using Devizes Gateway will be a key driver of the transport user benefits; more users will yield more benefits and potential revenue, especially if they are transferring from other private modes. Some of the key drivers of passenger demand are as follows:

Service Provision: The types of rail services provided at the new station, such as the service frequency, journey times, destinations, type of rolling stock and reliability.

Station Locations: Passenger demand at different locations could be influenced by the density of resident population, employment, leisure, tourism and other facilities in the vicinity of the station.

Station Accessibility: Demand will be influenced by the accessibility of the station in terms of highway access, parking facilities and costs, and public transport and active travel links.

Competitiveness of Alternative Modes and Routes: The competitiveness of alternative modes and routes, including the use of other rail stations, in terms of journey times and costs is crucial to the level of demand that might be expected at the new station. The level of highway congestion, journey times, parking and fares all determine the competitiveness of different modes. Levels of car ownership can also impact likelihood of public transport use.

Fares: The cost of rail fares comparative to both other modes and to alternative stations and routes will impact the choice of mode and route.

Wider economic and demographic trends: The propensity for people to undertake journeys is correlated with wider economic and demographic trends. Factors such as population, employment and income all impact the number of journeys that might be expected. At the moment there is a great deal of long-term uncertainty about how long-term trends in travel behaviours might be impacted by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit.

To accurately assess the demand effects of these factors, and others, a detailed demand forecasting model would be needed. For example, a calibrated multimodal gravity type demand model could forecast the number of expected trips by origin, destination and route, by using data collected around existing patterns of trip making, and the costs and journey times of existing modes. A model of this type could then be used to assess and understand the demand implications of different design choices, to help optimise the design of options and maximise the expected benefits.

Unfortunately, there is no readily available model of this type that can forecast the demand at Devizes Gateway while taking account of all the factors described above. Instead, and as appropriate for this early stage of the study, a comparative trip rate based analysis of demand at some existing stations within the study region has been undertaken to offer some indications on the level of demand that might be expected at a new station serving Devizes. While such analysis is relatively crude, it does provide some understanding of the level of demand that might be possible on the new route as benchmarked against other services in the area. A summary of the demand forecasting approach is displayed in Figure 3-14.

Pewsey and Westbury have been selected as comparator stations to Devizes on the basis that they are both on the same Reading to Taunton railway line and therefore offer similar rail services to similar destinations as Devizes. However, it is important to note that Pewsey and Westbury also have some significantly different characteristics to Devizes.

Although Westbury is on the same east west route as Devizes it is also served by trains on the north south Trans Wilts line. As such it offers a direct service to a much wider range of local destinations, including in particular Bath and Bristol. The station is also located in the centre of the town with easy access to local amenities and housing.

Pewsey has a similar train service to Devizes, but it is a much smaller town than Devizes and really acts as railhead for a large part of central Wiltshire that has poor rail connections, including town such as Marlborough and Devizes itself.

Figure 3-14 - Summary of demand forecasting approach and inputs at each stage

Rail Demand at other stations in the region

Figure 3-15 – Other national rail stations in the region

Map Description automatically generated

Figure 3-15 above shows the location of national rail stations in the region. Table 3-4Table 3-5 summarises the annual station usage (entries and exits) for these stations for the year 2019/2020 using the Office for Road and Rail (ORR) station usage statistics. This estimate of station usage is derived from ticket sales data, although with some adjustments where this may not be fully representative.

Table 3-4 – Rail demand at existing stations from ORR station usage data

Station	Total entries and exits (2019-2020)	Service
Chippenham	1,937,240	London to Bath GW Main Line
Trowbridge	917,458	Wessex Main Line
Westbury	557,756	London Exeter GW Main Line Wessex Main Line Heart of Wessex Line Cardiff to Portsmouth Line Waterloo to Bristol Line
Bradford-on-Avon	550,720	Heart of Wessex Line Cardiff to Portsmouth Line Waterloo to Bristol Line
Warminster	355,380	Wessex Main Line Waterloo to Bristol Line
Pewsey	269,352	London Exeter GW Main Line
Melksham	75,292	Trans Wilts Line
Dilton Marsh	16,616	Wessex Main Line

Pewsey and Westbury have been selected as comparator stations to Devizes on the basis that they are both on the same Reading to Taunton railway line and therefore offer similar rail services to similar destinations as Devizes (Table 3-5). However, it is important to note that Pewsey and Westbury also have some significantly different characteristics to Devizes.

Although Westbury is on the same east west route as Devizes it is also served by trains on the north south trans wilts line. As such it offers a direct service to a much wider range of local destinations, including in particular Bath and Bristol. The station is also located in the centre of the town with easy access to local amenities and housing.

Pewsey has a similar train service to Devizes, but it is a much smaller town than Devizes and really acts as railhead for a large part of central Wiltshire that has poor rail connections, including town such as Marlborough and Devizes itself.

Table 3-5 – Comparison between Westbury and Pewsey rail stations

Indicator	Westbury	Pewsey	Devizes
Population (Built up area/ Community area)	17,547	3,797	17,148 33,824
Rail services	Exeter-Reading; Salisbury-Bath/Swindon	Exeter-Reading	Exeter-Reading
Regularity of services	2 per hour; 2/3 per hour	Every 2 hours	Every 2 hours
Station location	Majority of the town within 2 miles of the station	Majority of the town within 1 mile of the station	Majority of town between 1.8 miles and 4 miles from the station
Station usage	557,756 per year	269,352 per year	-

Rail Growth

Table 3-6 shows the annual average growth in rail demand at other stations in the region over the last 5, 10 and 20 years, based upon ORR station usage data (this analysis does not include the impacts of covid. This shows that over the last 20 years demand for most stations has more than doubled, at an annual growth rate of around 5% per year. While the last 5 years have seen much slower growth, demand has still increased at most stations at an average of around 1% per annum.

Table 3-6 – Rail Growth in the region over the last 20 years

Station	Average annual growth rate over last 5 years	Average annual growth rate over last 10 years	Average annual growth rate over last 20 years
Bradford-On-Avon	1%	4%	5%
Trowbridge	0%	3%	4%
Melksham	4%	22%	16%
Chippenham	1%	2%	3%
Westbury	0%	4%	5%
Dilton Marsh	0%	5%	3%
Warminster	-1%	1%	2%
Pewsey	3%	4%	5%
Average	1%	6%	5%

While there is a great deal of uncertainty on the long terms impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for rail, in the long-term timescales of this scheme it seems plausible to assume that demand for rail travel may continue to further grow from the levels seen in 2019/20. Long-term trends for increased home working, may mean locations such as Devizes become more attractive for workers who can undertake much of their work from home, but who still need to travel once or twice a week to a work location. As such the demand for long distance rail services may increase.

Trip rate analysis

While the level of demand for other stations in the region can form a useful starting point for understanding the likely level usage of a new Gateway station at Devizes, further insights might be gained by assessing the level of demand in comparison to the level of population within the vicinity of the station – i.e. to understand the level of trip making per person. This trip rate can then be applied to the population near Devizes to provide an estimate of demand.

Table 3-7 shows the current population within a 0-to-10, 10-to-20, and 20-to-30 minute journey time catchment area for the two comparator stations determined using GIS analysis of census data. These catchment areas are presented in Figure 3-16 and Figure 3-17. Also shown is the population for the Devizes Gateway Lydeway site. As might be expected there is considerable variation in the level of population and employment within each buffer zone. The Devizes Gateway site at Lydeway has very little population and employment within 10 minutes of the station, with the majority of the population living between 20-and 30-minutes from the station.

It should be noted that some of these catchment areas overlap with other existing stations, and as such they do not accurately represent the actual station’s catchment area that will vary considerably in size depending on the geography of the area, accessibility of the station and rail service provision. Stations such as Pewsey act as rail heads for a much wider region, and a significant proportion of the demand will be accessing the station by car from further away than a station such as Westbury which has a number of alternative stations close by. Indeed, station accessibility surveys undertaken by Wiltshire show that one third of the users of Pewsey station travel over 10km to get to the station, and that they do so overwhelmingly by using a car.

Table 3-7 – Current population within different journey time catchment areas of stations sites

	Population in journey time band by car (top) and bus (bottom)
Current Station	0 to 10 mins	10 to 20 mins	20 to 30 mins
Westbury	28,114 3,791	106,133 13,749	146,578 24,143
Pewsey	6,727 1,741	42,937 1,943	137,539 8,641
Devizes Gateway - Lydeway Site	20,653 1,056	40,557 11,259	193,246 5,776

Figure 3-16 - Journey time catchment area by car

Figure 3-17 - Journey time catchment areas by bus

Devizes journey time catchment area is based on travel time to proposed station site at Lydeway.

Table 2-8 outlines the estimated breakdown of trips by mode within different journey time catchment areas. The estimates have been developed from a combination of Wiltshire station access data for car users and observed journey time catchment population estimates for bus users. Due to the significant overlap between the 20–30-minute car journey time catchment areas of certain stations, it has been assumed that at all car users live within a 20-minute catchment of Pewsey, Westbury and Devizes Gateway rail stations.

Table 3-8 – Estimated percentage of trips by journey time band

		Distribution of trips by journey time band
Current Station	Mode	0 to 10 mins	10 to 20 mins	20 to 30 mins
Westbury	Car	48%	52%	n/a

Bus	50%	25%	25%
Pewsey	Car	27%	73%	n/a

Bus	50%	25%	25%

Using the estimated proportions of trips within different journey time catchment areas for different modes outlined above, Table 3-9 and Table 3-10 present the trip rates for car users and bus users within the various journey time catchment areas of Westbury and Pewsey.

Table 3-9 – Trip rates at existing stations (access by car)

Station	Trip rate for demand generated within 0-to-10-minute catchment	Trip rate for demand generated within 10-to-20-minute catchment	Trip rate for demand generated within 20-to-30-minute catchment
Westbury	5.7	1.6	Due to significant overlap, 20-to-30-minute catchment area for car user is not considered.
Pewsey	9.2	3.9

Average	7.5	5.5

Table 3-10 – Trip rates at existing stations (access by bus)

Station	Trip rate for demand generated within 0-to-10-minute catchment	Trip rate for demand generated within 10-to-20-minute catchment	Trip rate for demand generated within 20-to-30-minute catchment
Westbury	29.4	4.1	2.3
Pewsey	11.6	5.2	1.2
Average	20.5	4.6	1.8

To provide a high-level forecast of demand at Devizes a weighted average trip rate for Devizes has been determined by using the trip rates from Westbury and Pewsey across different access modes and distance bands. The access mode split at Devizes is assumed to be 60% car and 40% bus, noting that this represents a much higher bus mode share at Devizes than has been recorded at either Pewsey or Westbury.

On this basis Table 3-11 presents that the estimated demand at Devizes Gateway could be in the region of 350,000 entries and exits per annum at the Lydeway site.

Table 3-11 - Forecast demand at Devizes Gateway by mode based on comparator station trip rates

Comparator station trip rate used	Total demand at Devizes Gateway
Westbury	274,593
Pewsey	425,344
Average	349,969

It should be noted that the analysis presented above contains some significant caveats which mean that the demand presented in Table 3-11 should not be considered as a robust forecast of demand, but instead as a benchmark to help understand the plausibility of different demand levels. In particular, the trip rates are based on Devizes having the same characteristics as Pewsey and Westbury stations.

As noted previously Pewsey is a station that does not have a large centre of population close to the station. Instead, it serves a relatively large area of Wiltshire not served by rail from places such as Marlborough and Devizes. Pewsey is poorly served by bus connections and with many people therefore access the station by car from origins or destinations relatively far away. Pewsey does not have a particularly frequent train service, although the limited number of services are directly connected to places served by London to Exeter semi fast services.

Westbury is a much larger town, with the station well located near the centre. Westbury also has a much wider range of direct rail services as it on both the east west Great Western and north south Wessex Main Lines.

As a result there a number of limitations with the trip rate analysis, including:

The trip rate analysis makes no account for the type of train service provided by the station, such as the destinations served or the level of frequency. The train service frequency at Devizes Gateway is unlikely to more than 1 service per hour in either direction, which is generally lower than other stations in the region. Furthermore, the journey time analysis in Section 3.2 also showed that the main users of Devizes station are likely to those without access to a car going to destinations served directly from Devizes, particularly London. This means that in practice the level of demand at Devizes is likely to be lower than the analysis above might suggest.

The trip rate analysis takes only limited account of the distance effect of where the population and employment is located within a 10km catchment area. A station with its population located closer to the station would be expected to have a higher trip rate than one with the population further away. Given that most people using the Devizes Gateway station will be travelling at least 3km beyond the station site, this may mean that that the trip rates of stations with much closer catchment areas do not provide a good comparison and that again the demand at Devizes could be lower than suggested above.

The analysis above also takes no account of trip substitution. It might be that many people wanting to get to or from Devizes by rail already do so using an existing station. While the provision of a new station at Devizes may also attract some new users, it is also likely to mean a lower demand at some of the other stations in the region that people currently use to access the rail network. In particular many users of Westbury and Devizes stations are likely to be travelling onwards to Devizes or its environs.

The trip rate analysis takes no account of the accessibility of stations, and the proportion of passengers who might be expected to travel to the station by different modes.

Key Demand Flows

Census data

Figure 3-18 below shows main commuting destinations from Devizes for all modes of travel determined from census travel to work data. The shows that the key destinations that commuters want to get to from Devizes are Swindon, Trowbridge, Chippenham, Bath, Salisbury, Bristol and London. Analysis of journey times in Section 3.2 showed that for most locations within Devizes, London, Reading and Newbury are the only significant journeys that Devizes Gateway is likely to be attractive for. The Census data shows that journeys to these destinations represent less than 10% of the overall commuting market.

Figure 3-18 - Key destinations of commuters from Devizes (All modes of travel)

Relating to the baseline travel demand context discussed in Section 2.3.4, which considered the geographical distributions of travel-to-work demand, Table 3-12 presents the scales of demand using longer distance trip ends which might be more likely to be ‘in scope’ as part of the potential rail market along the Berks and Hants line.

Table 3-12 – Census 2011 Travel to Work summaries – To and From Devizes

	All modes	Car	Train
London and SE	1,149 (4%)	907 (5%)	92 (52%)
Bristol, Bath	488 (2%)	414 (2%)	35 (20%)
Westbury, Taunton, Exeter	9 (0%)	9 (0%)	-
Total	26,060	18,816	177

Among all trips to and from Devizes, If the travel-to-work by car mode share is treated as a proxy estimate for the potential rail market, then Table 3-12 suggests that the potential new travel demand market for rail journeys to/from Devizes might comprise roughly 7% of total travel demand – with a majority, 5%, travelling to/from the east of Devizes and 2% travelling to/from the west along the Berks and Hants line.

MOIRA data

The table below shows the key demand flows from Westbury and Pewsey stations as forecast by the MOIRA demand model. This shows that the majority of trips from Pewsey are to and from London, with Westbury, Newbury and Reading accounting for most other trips. Users of Westbury are seen to travel to a much wider range of destinations, as the station is located on both the Great Western and Wessex Main Lines.

Table 3-13 - Key demand flows from Westbury station for September 2019 (source MOIRA)

Rank	Destination	Demand	Percentage of all trips
1	Bath Spa	99,764	18.0%
2	London	98,196	17.7%
3	Bristol Temple Meads	57,594	10.4%
4	Trowbridge	48,809	8.8%
5	Pewsey	30,733	5.5%
6	Warminister	16,178	2.9%
7	Swindon	15,796	2.8%
8	Salisbury	11,739	2.1%
9	Filton Abbey Wood	9,359	1.7%
10	Taunton	8,888	1.6%

Table 3-14 - Key demand flows from Pewsey station for September 2019 (source MOIRA)

Rank	Destination	Demand	Percentage of all trips
1	London	130,047	52.3%
2	Westbury	30,733	12.4%
3	Newbury	23,424	9.4%
4	Reading	21,455	8.6%
5	Castle Cary	5,689	2.3%
6	Taunton	3,846	1.5%
7	Exeter St David’s	2,911	1.2%
8	Hungerford	2,217	0.9%
9	Bristol Temple Meads	1,910	0.8%
10	Bath Spa	1,767	0.7%

Population Analysis

Table 3-15 shows the additional population within Devizes that can access key commuting towns as a result of Devizes Gateway Station.

Table 3-15 - Difference in population in each journey time bracket between the DS and DM scenarios

Journey Time (minutes)	Bristol	Reading	Chippenham	Bath	Trowbridge
0 – 30	0	0	0	0	0
30 – 60	0	1,775	0	0	0
60 – 90	1,767	15,963	0	2,849	0
Total	1,767	17,738	0	2,849	0

It is expected that as a result of the provision of a rail link to Devizes, that around 27,000 people will be able to access Reading within 90 minutes by public transport, which is an increase of around 18,000 people. Of these 18,000 approximately 1,775 become within 60 minutes of Reading as result of constructing Devizes Gateway. This improvement offers great potential for commuters from Devizes to access key employment centres and services offered within the South East. The enhanced connectivity to Reading and the proposed Old Oak Common station will also mean that the area will have good national connections on completion of the HS2 network. A small number of people also experience improved journey times to Bath and Bristol as result of introducing the service.

Table 3-16 shows the change in the number of jobs accessible from Devizes Market Place within certain timebands as a result of the improved accessibility provided by Devizes Gateway. It is evident that the introduction of a railway station will offer significant improvements in access to employment from Devizes, especially within 60-90 minutes journey time category. As expected, the scheme has greater impacts on longer distance accessibility to jobs due to the station not being located directly outside of the Devizes urban area. Consequently, only an additional 345 jobs are within 30 minutes public transport journey time of Devizes Market Place. Improvements within the 30-60 minute band can be attributed to enhanced connectivity to areas such as Pewsey and Newbury, whereas those in the 60-90 minute band are mainly a result of the significant improvement in eastbound connectivity to Reading and the large amount of jobs centred there.

Table 3-16 – Change in the number of jobs accessible from Devizes with Devizes Gateway Station

Journey Time (Minutes)	Total Number of Employees	Number of Full-Time Employees	Number of Part-Time Employees
0 – 30	345	136	213
30 – 60	7,747	4,684	3,227
60 – 90	139,073	95,897	44,084
Total Increase in Jobs accessible with 90 Minutes	147,164	100,717	47,524

N.B. Full time + part time jobs does not equal the total number of employees exactly due to rounding in the data.

Demand Analysis Conclusions

It has not been possible to undertake an accurate assessment of the likely demand for a new station at Devizes Gateway, as an appropriate demand model of the study area is not currently available. Instead, high-level analysis has been undertaken by comparing the demand and trip rates at other local stations and applying these trip rates to the catchment area of Devizes. This analysis shows that the demand for Devizes could be around 350,000 although there is a wide variation in this forecast depending on how the trip rates are applied.

However, this trip rate has a number of significant limitations that may result in these demand forecasts being an overestimate of demand.

The use of Pewsey and Westbury as comparator stations is not ideal, as for different reasons both stations are likely to have a different kind of market to Devizes.

The trip rate analysis does not allow for trip substitution. Many residents of Devizes will already be making rail journeys from existing station. A significant proportion of any demand at Devizes is therefore likely to be journeys that would otherwise have been made from an alternative station.

The trip rate analysis takes no account of car availability. The demand journey time analysis shows that for those who access the rail network by car, Devizes Gateway is unlikely to provide significant journey time savings compared to driving to alternative stations.

As such the demand for Devizes station is likely to be smaller than that that indicated by the trip rate analysis. Assuming the travel-to-work by car mode share is treated as a proxy estimate for the potential rail market, the potential new travel demand market for rail journeys to/from Devizes might comprise roughly 7% of total travel demand – with a majority, 5%, travelling to/from the east of Devizes and 2% travelling to/from the west along the Berks and Hants line.

Rail demand in the region has experienced significant growth over the last 20 years. While there is currently considerable uncertainty around short term rail demand impacts of covid, it seems plausible to imagine that over the longer-term demand for rail travel is likely to recover and continue to increase as longer distance but less frequent commutes perhaps become the norm.

Due to the uncertainty in demand the appraisal of the station has been tested against a wide range of demand scenarios.

Costs

Capital Cost of Construction – Devizes station.

For the purposes of this assessment, Faithful + Gould have prepared a high-level estimate of costs of works reflecting a single scheme option to provide a new station on the Berks & Hants line serving Devizes. The costings have been based on the indicative schematic developed by Cole Easdon for the station at Lydeway in Jan 2018 which locates the station at the end of the Lydeway Airstrip, using the assumptions summarised in Table 3-17. For the purpose of this cost estimation the following assumptions have been made:

The estimates have been prepared and presented under the overall structure of Network Rail's RMM1 Method of Measurement. This has been done at Group Element level with coding of individual works items at Sub element and component level being provided only where the level of detail allows.

The estimates are based at 2nd Quarter 2021 price levels. No allowance has been made for inflation to potential implementation dates.

In the absence of any formal exercise or modelling being undertaken to establish a 3-point range to the estimate the estimate tolerance/range is assessed to be in the order of +40/-20%.

The scope of works that form the basis of the estimates are at an extremely early stage of development and it is considered would equate to Network Rail GRIP Stage 1 - Output definition

The estimates are based on rates and historical cost data derived from similar UK Railway Projects.

High level items where scope is not confirmed are based on top-down asset level benchmarks, whereas whenever firmer assumptions can be made from the supporting data provided, a bottom-up rate assessment has been conducted.

The rates used reflect the assumption that the works will be undertaken by Network Rail and carried out by experienced railway contractors with the works being competitively tendered. It is assumed that Green zone working may be possible for the majority of the works but possession working will be required for the construction of the station platforms and footbridge erection.

Table 3-17 – Assumptions to derive capital cost estimates

Item	Elements
Indirect costs	Contractor's indirect costs (Preliminaries and Overheads & Profit) as well as Employer's indirect costs (Project management, Design and Other costs). These are calculated as a weighted percentage uplift on base construction cost and total construction cost respectively. The percentages applied have been derived from the recommended ranges within Network Rail's current Cost Planning Procedure Issue 3.2.

Project management and Design costs are calculated as a percentage uplift on base construction cost and total construction cost respectively. These have generally been applied in line within the benchmark ranges contained within Network Rail's current Cost Planning Procedure Issue 3.2 for Minor Works and assuming that the works are undertaken under a single competitively procured contract.

In the absence of an agreed implementation strategy and programme, TOC/FOC or other operator compensation has been excluded.
Railway control systems	It is assumed that no additional signalling will be required in respect of the provision of the new station.
	Allowance has been made for protection and potential realignment of existing signalling cable troughing routes in the location of the new platforms. It is assumed that the condition of the existing cabling will allow this to take place and that sufficient cable slack exists.
Train power systems	The route is not currently electrified and therefore no allowance has been made for any new works in this respect.
Electric Power and Plant	Allowance has been made for new power supplies being provided from an existing power supply assumed to be available within adjacent residential areas. It is assumed that such a supply has sufficient capacity and no allowance has been made for any upgrading of such utility company supplies.
Permanent Way / Track	Initial investigations suggest that the existing track in this location is at an appropriate vertical and horizontal alignment to facilitate construction and operation of the station without the need for any adjustment of the track cant. Allowance has however been made for carrying out a tamping operation to facilitate an adjustment to line and level should this be required to ensure platform levels and stepping distances are consistent.
Telecommunication Systems	Allowance has been made for protection and potential realignment of existing telecoms routes in the location of the new platforms. It is assumed that the condition of the existing cabling will allow this to take place and that sufficient cable slack exists.
Buildings & property	Its is assumed that the station will be unmanned and therefore no staff/mess facilities have been provided.

It is assumed that the station will provide an open but covered waiting area in which the TVM will be located.

No allowance has been made for the provision of either staff or public toilet facilities.

No allowance has been made for the provision of any retail facilities.

It is assumed that utilities (Water/electric and telecoms) are available and can be connected to either in the existing residential area or within the A342. It is assumed these will have sufficient capacity to supply the station and no allowance has been made for any upgrade to such supplies by the relevant utility company.
Civil Engineering: Structures	A 7 car platform (210m length) has been assumed.

It is assumed a DDA compliant footbridge will be provided with ramps only (No staircases or lifts). Height of structure to be sufficient to accommodate any future route electrification.
Civil Engineering: Highways	Allowance has been made for alterations to the A342 needed to provide a junction to the station access road. It is assumed that this junction will not require traffic signalling.

It has been assumed that a 7m wide access road will be provided with a 2m wide pedestrian footpath to one side only.

It has been assumed that a 100 space surface car park will be provided.
Civil Engineering: Earthworks & civils	In the absence of any construction details levels or sections for either the station location or the access road it has not been possible to establish the extent to which any adjustment of levels in respect or either excavation or fill may be needed. A review on Google Earth suggests that the access road will be predominantly across relatively level existing fields but there is less clarity around the station site itself. A provisional allowance has therefore been made but this would be subject to review once further design development has taken place.
Enabling works / Other project development costs - Land, Environmental and third parties	Allowance has been made for the potential possession management costs associated with undertaking the works. No allowance has been made for the provision of infrastructure associated with facilitating the train service at other locations (such additional platforms at Westbury or loops at Bedwyn).
Rolling Stock	No allowance has been made for rolling stock costs needed to provide wider service changes)

In addition, it has not been possible to assess some of the potential Indirect or Employer costs associated with the implementation of the works and the following items are specifically excluded from the estimate.

Value Added Tax or other Taxes.

Escalation during the lead in and construction periods (i.e. all costs are therefore based at current price levels: 2Q21).

Financing,

Train/Freight Operating Company (TOC/FOC) compensation costs associated with provision of possessions,

Legal & Parliamentary/ Governmental Fees.

Wiltshire Council, Local Planning Fees, Public Consultation and/or TWAO Costs.

Third party compensation (other than land purchase costs).

Any costs associated with the upgrade of utility supplies.

DfT’s TAG guidance sets out that for a project at this early stage of development (known as GRIP 1 ) that an optimism bias uplift of 64% should be applied to the net capital costs. On this basis Table 3-18 summarises the capital cost estimates for the scheme option, presented in Q2 2021 prices and excluding contingency and risk allowance.

Table 3-18 – Estimated capital costs (Q2, 2021 prices) for Devizes Station

Group	Elements	£ million
Direct Construction Works	Railway Control Systems	0.1

Electric Power and Plant	0.2

Permanent Way / Track.	0.1

Telecommunication Systems	0.6

Buildings and Property	1.2

Civil Engineering	8.4

Enabling Works	0.3
Indirect Construction Costs	Preliminaries	3.6

Contractor Overheads and Profit	1.3
Development and Other Costs	Project Design Team Fees	1.3

NR Project Management Team Fees	1.2

Other Project Development (excluding Land Cost and compensation costs)	0.6

Land cost	0.2
Point Estimate (Construction + Development cost) excluding contingency and risk allowance	19.1
Capital costs including 56% Optimism Bias	29.7

Capital Cost benchmarking

Benchmarking of Capital costs for works of these nature at a high level will always provide a challenge as a potentially significant proportion of such costs are likely to be scheme and/or location specific and direct comparison with the overall costs of previous schemes is rarely likely to be wholly possible or appropriate in that respect. Comparison too with such costs will be distorted by the fact that such benchmarks will likely represent outturn costs from the successful (and therefore probably the lowest) tender and will reflect scheme scope following value engineering (VE) activities and detailed design.

As well as this scheme being at an early stage with little design having been undertaken, the estimate as presented is not intended represent the ultimate minimum outturn cost. Instead it is intended to give a robust initial budget figure, and as such there may well be VE opportunities identified as detailed design progresses and/or the assumptions currently made/stated are reviewed or challenged as part of that process. Similarly, the risk/OB allowance will reduce as that process progresses.

Rather than take a “top down” approach from the overall cost of previous projects, the estimate has been undertaken using a ‘bottom up’ approach. As such, rates or allowances for key works items have been based upon adjusted outturn cost data sourced from previous schemes, where the specific works are considered comparable.

A high level benchmarking was undertaken against recently developed/tendered costs for 6 new stations being provided within outlying areas of Birmingham for the West Midlands Combined Authority. The costs of these stations does however demonstrate the potential issues that site specific factors can generate in terms of their impact on cost, as whilst all six stations provided the same basic station infrastructure in terms of platform numbers/lengths, station facilities etc., their CAPEX Point estimate cost (excluding risk and therefore comparable with the figure of £19.1 m above), ranged from £15.8m to £22.4m.

In the case of the Devizes scheme such location/scope specific costs would include:

The proposed station location being in a high water-table area, potentially influencing foundation design and drainage provisions.

Need to provide attenuation ponds.

The need to relocate existing track drainage.

The need to provide an access road circa 1.5 km long.

The anticipated need to provide new utility supply routes over a distance of circa 1.3km.

Of the above, the access road in particular generates a significant proportion (circa £4.1m) of the total Civil Engineering cost which would not necessarily be “typical” of a scheme of this nature.

Whilst further value engineering opportunities may exist to reduce scheme costs in due course, at this stage the estimate provides a central estimate for the purpose of this early stage SOC.

Capital Cost of Construction - Bedwyn and Westbury.

Faithful + Gould have also made a high-level estimate for the supplementary works required at Bedwyn and Westbury to facilitate the introduce the identified service patterns serving the new station at Devizes. The costings have been based on the indicative schemes described in section 2.9.4. The assumptions summarised in Table 3-17 are generally also reflected within these estimates with the following specific additions or amendments:

Table 3-19 – Additional assumptions to derive capital cost estimates (Bedwyn and Westbury)

Item	Elements
Railway control systems	Bedwyn Allowance has been made for the potential works necessary in respect of railway control system modifications/additions needed to facilitate operation of the new loop although at this stage no investigation has been caried out in regard to the capacity etc. of existing signalling systems. It has been assumed therefore that the existing signal control function has sufficient capacity to accommodate these additional signals and no allowance has been made for any upgrade of these systems. Allowance has been made for protection and potential realignment of existing signal cabling routes in the location of the new loop. It is assumed that the condition of the existing cabling will allow this to take place and that sufficient cable slack exists. Westbury, Allowance has been made for protection and potential realignment of existing signalling cable troughing routes in the location of the new platforms. It is assumed that the condition of the existing cabling will allow this to take place and that sufficient cable slack exists. It has been assumed therefore that the existing signal control function has sufficient capacity to accommodate the additional signals and other changes to existing. No allowance has been made for any upgrade of these systems.
Electric Power and Plant	Bedwyn Allowance has been made for power supplies needed to the location of the new S&C. It is assumed that these will be connected to existing supplies at the other end of the loop and that those supplies have sufficient capacity. No allowance has been made for any upgrading or provision of new supplies. Westbury Allowance has been made for power supplies needed to the location of the new S&C. It is assumed that these will be connected to existing supplies at the other end of the loop and that those supplies have sufficient capacity. No allowance has been made for any upgrading or provision of new supplies. It is assumed that existing platform lighting and other power systems will be retained and are adequate for use by trains/passengers on the reinstated platform. No allowance has been made for upgrading such systems or for additional lighting being provided.
Permanent Way / Track	Bedwyn It has been assumed that the existing siding trackwork and S&C units at the London End which will be retained are in a suitable condition for reuse. No allowance has been made their refurbishment/replacement or any slewing of the existing siding trackwork. The length of loop allowed has been made on the basis of accommodating a 5 car train plus a signalling overlap of 180m. Westbury It has been assumed that sufficient space exists to lay a new track on the currently empty track bed next to platform 1 although allowance has been made on the basis that the existing down reception line would need to be slewed at the London End to facilitate the connection being installed. It is assumed that P Way alterations will only be required to the west of existing S&C unit 829b and that unit will not require alteration or relocation.
Telecommunication Systems	Bedwyn Allowance has been made for protection and potential realignment of existing telecoms routes in the location of the new loop. It is assumed that the condition of the existing cabling will allow this to take place and that sufficient cable slack exists. Westbury It is assumed that new PA and other Customer information systems will need to be provided on the reinstated platform. It is assumed that it will be possible to connect into the existing systems provided on the adjacent platform 1 and such systems and their control functions have the capacity to accommodate this. No allowance has therefore been made for upgrading or replacement of such systems.
Buildings & property	Westbury No allowance has been made for any work to the existing station buildings or facilities at Westbury station.
Civil Engineering: Structures	Bedwyn It is assumed that the existing foot crossing will be replaced by a (non-DDA compliant) footbridge which will be provided with stairs only (No ramps or lifts). Height of structure to be sufficient to accommodate any future route electrification. No allowance has been made for providing lighting or CCTV to the footbridge. Whilst it has not been confirmed on site, from a review of Google Earth there appears to be an existing structure with visible headwalls under the main line at the location of the new loop formation. (Approx 105m to the south of the existing foot crossing) This may be a large culvert or overspill structure associated with the adjacent canal. It has been assumed that this will require extending and the Up side headwall reconstructing, and provisional allowance has been for these works. Whilst it has not been confirmed on site, from a review of Google Earth it appears there may possibly be an existing culvert under the main line. (Approx 200m to the south of the existing foot crossing) This is approximately at the point at which the new loop will tie into the mainline. It has been assumed that this will require extending and provisional allowance has been for these works, Westbury It is assumed that the existing station access subway is in a condition suitable to take the loading imposed by reinstating the platform track and no allowance has been made for any remedial or strengthening works. It is assumed that the existing station platform surfacing is in a suitable condition and at an appropriate vertical level and no allowance has been made for any levelling or resurfacing works. Allowance has however been made for the horizontal realignment of platform copers and provision of tactile tiling and new platform markings. .
Civil Engineering: Earthworks & civils	Bedwyn In the absence of any levels or sections for the existing siding or adjacent area it has not been possible to establish the extent to which any adjustment of levels in respect or either excavation or fill may be needed to provide the new loop formation. A review on Google Earth suggests that the loop will be predominantly across relatively level existing fields at a similar level to the existing mainline track. A provisional allowance has therefore been made on the basis of minimum earthworks being required, but this would be subject to review once further design development has taken place.
Enabling works / Other project development costs - Land, Environmental and third parties	Bedwyn It is anticipated that some acquisition of adjacent arable land will be required to widen the formation for the new loop. A provisional allowance has been made for the cost of acquiring this land.

DfT’s TAG guidance sets out that for a project at this early stage of development (known as GRIP 1 ) that an optimism bias uplift of 56% should be applied to the net capital costs. On this basis Table 3-18 summarises the capital cost estimates for the additional works at Bedwyn and Westbury, presented in Q2 2021 prices and excluding contingency and risk allowance.

Table 3-20 – Estimated capital costs (Q2, 2021 prices) for Bedwyn Loop and Westbury additional platform

Group	Elements	Bedwyn £ million	Westbury £ million
Direct Construction Works	Railway Control Systems	0.8	1.2

Electric Power and Plant	0.1	0.1

Permanent Way / Track.	0.8	0.9

Telecommunication Systems	0.1	0.2

Buildings and Property	0.0	0.0

Civil Engineering	1.6	0.5

Enabling Works	0.1	0.1
Indirect Construction Costs	Preliminaries	1.1	1.0

Contractor Overheads and Profit	0.4	0.4
Development and Other Costs	Project Design Team Fees	0.5	0.5

NR Project Management Team Fees	0.4	0.4

Other Project Development (excluding Land Cost and compensation costs)	0.3	0.2

Land cost	0.1	0.0
Point Estimate (Construction + Development cost) excluding contingency and risk allowance	6.3	5.5
Capital costs including 56% Optimism Bias	9.8	8.6

Lifecycle, maintenance costs

It is assumed that the ongoing maintenance and renewals costs for the new station and associated infrastructure would be 1% of the original capital costs per annum. In accordance with TAG guidance all maintenance and renewal costs are uplifted by a further 41% to account for optimism bias.

Operating costs

At this stage, the appraisal considers high-level advice on potential operating costs provided by the train operating company. These operating costs are associated with the new station and the proposed extension of services from Bedwyn to Westbury. The following sections summarise the assumptions on which the estimated magnitudes of these costs are based.

Station operating costs – Devizes

The station operating costs considered for this appraisal broadly comprise the following:

Long Term Access Charges (LTAC): covers track and station access including costs of repair and renewals. For Devizes, the current LTAC at Tiverton Parkway Station, estimated to be around £72k per annum, is assumed to be a broadly comparable proxy;

Station call fuel costs: the fuel cost of calling trains in the base timetable is excluded from this appraisal as it is assumed that any calls in existing services will generally be at the expense of existing calls at Pewsey;

General operations and maintenance: ball park annual estimates of £30k per annum to cover utility bills, cleaning, ticket supply, and other general reactive maintenance; and

Car park maintenance and management: estimated around £5.5k per annum based on APCOA’s current charge of £55 per space per annum for a 100-space car park, to cover car park maintenance, management and business rates.

Operating costs of service extensions – Bedwyn to Westbury

Costs for the operation of the proposed extension of Bedwyn services to Westbury are based on assumptions around the additional mileage and costs of train crew. These costs are estimated to amount to around £1.75m per annum, comprising around £1.1m for mileage (covering fuel, materials, Variable Track Access Charge (VTAC), and around £650k for train crew costs. Rolling stock lease costs are excluded on the basis that an additional 5 car set could be deployed from the existing fleet. The assumptions around rolling stock will need to be confirmed at the next stage of development; and cost estimation in general will need to be refined as the scheme and service specification become more concretely defined. Table 3-21 summarises the elements of operating costs.

Table 3-21 - Operating costs assumed for appraisal (assumed 2020/21 prices per annum)

Group	Elements	£m
Station operating costs	Long Term Access Charges	0.072

General operations and maintenance (utilities, cleaning, ticket supply, other reactive maintenance)	0.030

Car park maintenance	0.0055
Station operating costs subtotal	0.1075
Service extensions	Mileage (fuel, materials, VTAC)	1.1

Train crew	0.65
Service extensions subtotal	1.75

Present Value of Costs

The appraisal of costs follows the approach set out in TAG Unit A1.2 – Scheme Costs. The general assumptions relevant for the economic assessment of costs are ces using the GDP deflator, adjusted to market prices, and discounted to give Present Value Costs (PVC) in line with WebTAG guidance ;

The appraisal assumes that construction commences in 2024 and takes three years, with the capital costs distributed evenly from 2024/25 to 2026/27;

The assumed scheme opening year is 2027, with a 60-year appraisal period ending in 2086;

For ancillary works, the total operating, whole-life maintenance and renewal costs are estimated as being 1% of capital costs per annum starting in assumed opening year 2027;

Whole-life maintenance and renewals costs for the station and operating costs for the station and service extensions are as outlined in Table 3-21; and

This appraisal assumes there would be no net revenue impact, whether on the basis that any positive revenue impacts would offset any potential operating costs, or on the basis that the net effects of abstracted, substituted, or changes in rail demand at an aggregate level are assumed to be insignificant.

In addition to the costs adjustments to convert to present values, as outlined above, this appraisal includes optimism bias at the following rates, in line with rail network enhancement projects at GRIP Stage 1 :

Capital costs: 56% of present value capital expenditure;

Lifecycle costs: 41% of present value maintenance, renewal and operational costs.

At this early design stage, it is assumed that the high optimism bias should sufficiently account for cost uncertainty including the effects of construction price inflation or real price growth for operational or rolling stock costs. Table 3-22 summarises the total present value costs, including optimism bias, over the 60-year appraisal period.

Table 3-22 – Present values of costs including optimism bias (£m, 2010 prices and values)

	Item	£ ‘000s, 2010 prices and values
Devizes Station costs	PV Capital costs	30,900

PV Station operating costs	4,200

PV Train service operating costs	68,300
Subtotal PV Devizes Station	103,500
Ancillary works	PV Bedwyn passing loop	10,100

PV Westbury extra platform	8,900

PV Lifecycle, maintenance and operating costs	4,600
Subtotal PV Ancillary works	23,700
Total PVC	127,100

Revenue

Given the early stage of the scheme’s development detailed revenue modelling has not been undertaken at this stage of the assessment. To undertake detailed revenue analysis requires development of demand model that can forecast where users of Devizes station are travelling from, their journey purpose and therefore ticket type, and proportion of travellers who are new to the rail network and would not otherwise have made their journey from other stations.

Nevertheless, some high level analysis on expected revenue been undertaken using assumptions on average fare per mile as recommended by the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook. Assuming that the journey purpose and destination splits from Devizes Gateway are the same as currently seen at Pewsey, then the average fare (or more accurately yield per passenger) would be around £18 per passenger in 2021 prices. It is worth noting that Pewsey has a relatively high average fare as over 50% of the journeys from the station are to and from London. Using the trip distribution is the same as currently seen at Westbury the average fare per passenger would be £12 due to Westbury having a higher proportion of shorter distance trips.

Many of the users of Devizes station are likely to have previously made similar journeys from stations such as Pewsey, Westbury or Chippenham, albeit with longer journey times. With the opening of Devizes Gateway the revenue generated from these stations may therefore be expected to fall. At this stage the analysis has not attempted to forecast the level of trip abstraction, but for the purpose of the economic appraisal it is assumed that two thirds of users at Devizes would have otherwise made their rail journey from another station. This implies that net revenue per passenger at Devizes station will be around £6 per person, although with a wide margin of uncertainty given the high level analysis involved. The impact of these assumptions is tested in the appraisal sensitivity below.

Table 3-23 – PDFH assumptions on Average fare per mile (pence, 2016/7 prices)

Values in pence	Full	Reduced	Seasons	All
Rest of Country to and from London	48.4	18.1	19.3	24.1
Non London Long Distance	27.4	16.5	15.5	19
Non London Short Distance	32.8	21.9	20.7	25.2

Economic appraisal – obtaining value for money

As discussed above, the economic appraisal is primarily focused on the key benefit categories of journey time savings accruing to scheme users, the potential marginal external impacts that those scheme users’ travel choices may have on non-users (referred to as Level 1 impacts) and the potential scales of wider impacts (Level 2) that the scheme might induce based on high-level, rule-of-thumb estimates. This appraisal does not attempt to account for other potential impacts, either direct or indirect, for example journey time penalties or changes in journey quality that may be felt by existing rail passengers due to changes in rail timetables or changes in passenger demand.

In terms of the costs side of the value for money assessment, this appraisal focuses on the capital investment costs for providing a new station and the new station and rail services operating costs. The appraisal also considers the estimated capital costs for ancillary works at Bedwyn and Westbury stations, with allowances for capital renewals and operating costs, but does not separately account for changes in rolling stock, track and signalling equipment across the wider network to support the service changes, or the shuttle bus serving the new station.

A full economic appraisal of costs and benefits would enable the quantification of the ‘initial’ Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) for the scheme, i.e. the ratio of Level 1 benefits to the impact on the broad transport budget, which would then help inform the scheme’s overall Value for Money (VfM) position as per Table 3-24. The initial BCR would also be considered in the context of potential Level 2 impacts which would contribute to an ‘adjusted’ BCR.

Table 3-24: DfT Value for Money categories

VfM Category	Implied by
Very High	BCR greater than or equal to 4
High	BCR between 2 and 4
Medium	BCR between 1.5 and 2
Low	BCR between 1 and 1.5
Poor	BCR between 0 and 1
Very Poor	BCR less than or equal to 0

The analysis presented in this section focuses on understanding and assessing the assumptions that would need to be made for the scheme to achieve a BCR greater than 1.5 and therefore at least a medium value for money rating.

Mode Shift Benefits

As well as providing journey time savings to users, the introduction of a new station stop at Devizes Gateway could help facilitate mode shift from highways to rail that also provides benefits to non-users in terms of congestion, environmental and carbon benefits.

To appraise the impact of such mode shift, the appraisal methodology uses standard TAG based assumptions on the marginal external costs of highway. Table 3-18 presents an overview of each element of the marginal external costs that can be monetised using this marginal external cost approach as per the principles and guidance set out in TAG Unit A5-4.

Table 3-25: Marginal external impact from mode shift

Impact	Description
Road decongestion (indirect tax element)	Marginal reductions in indirect tax attributed to reduced highways congestion due to mode shift from road to active modes, i.e. those continuing to travel by road will have slightly lower fuel costs as a result of decongestion
Road decongestion (user element)	Marginal changes in road users travel times due to changes in road congestion
Other infrastructure investment	Reductions (or increases) in local or central government expenditure on highways maintenance, due to reduced (or increased) wear and tear on highways, due to reductions (or increases) in vehicle kilometres travelled
Accidents	Marginal changes in the frequency of road collisions due to changes in vehicle kilometres travelled
Local air quality, Noise, Greenhouse gases	Marginal changes in air quality, noise and greenhouse gas emissions due to changes in vehicle kilometres travelled

Calculations of marginal external costs are based on the following three key parameters.

Road-rail diversion factor: As per the standard TAG assumption, it is assumed 31% of rail demand would comprise trips that have switched from highways mode ;

Vehicle occupancy: to convert ‘highway trips’ to ‘vehicles’, as per TAG, assumed an ‘All Week Average Car’ occupancy of 1.57 persons;

Highways mileage: Using NTS analysis it is assumed an average of 8.5 miles per trip .

The marginal external cost approach means the scale of non-user benefits are driven primarily by the level of rail demand – the more rail users, the greater the mode shift and resultant external non-user benefits. However, as a rule of thumb, these non-user benefits are only likely to have a small influence on the total level of benefits and are generally not going to be deciding factors in determining the value for money of the scheme.

Wider economic impacts

Wider economic impacts (WEIs) encompass any economic impacts beyond the Level 1 impacts and would contribute to a Level 2 adjusted BCR. These impacts would be driven by changes in connectivity, transport accessibility, or transport costs that may lead to long term structural changes in population and employment patterns. The three types of impacts recognised by TAG that can feed into a value for money assessment are:

Induced investment – Improved accessibility and/or reductions in generalised travel costs lower the costs of production, which is represented in appraisal terms as increased output in imperfectly competitive markets. A high-level approach commonly used to value this effect is to apply a 10% uplift factor on the business users’ transport impacts .

Employment effects – changes in labour supply are very context specific, but in broad terms could comprise changes in the amount of employment and the locations of employment, i.e. more people working, or where jobs are located. It is generally considered that most of the welfare impacts of changes in commuting costs are accounted for in the transport user benefits, and any potential additional feedback effects in the wider economy, would typically of a small scale because generally only a small part of the population experiences these effects. Therefore, no impact is claimed in this case.

Static agglomeration – Improved transport accessibility effectively brings firms closer to other firms, sources of inputs, labour markets, and customers. This increased interaction can lead to innovation through knowledge spill overs, better linkages and collaboration, while any effective reductions in travel time or travel costs between areas also play key roles in fostering agglomeration economies by increasing effective economic density – i.e. businesses can reach more economic mass more quickly. Without any detailed assessment of economic densities in the study area and potentials for change, and in the absence of origin-destination demand analysis, a high-level assumption is to assume that the scheme might generate a baseline level of static agglomeration amounting to 10% of transport users’ impacts.

Detailed analysis of wider impacts has not been undertaken at this stage of the assessment. Instead, and in line with assumptions described above, the appraisal assumes a 10% uplift in business user benefits to account for business user impacts, and a 10% uplift in all user benefits to account for agglomeration and transport economic efficiency impacts.

Appraisal assumptions and parameters

To support this analysis a bespoke spreadsheet-based appraisal tool, following TAG guidance, has been developed to test the sensitivity of each category of benefits against the different input assumptions of demand, journey time savings, wider impacts and net revenues. TAG assumptions are consistent with TAG July 2021 databook.

For the appraisal calculations demand is segmented by journey purpose as per TAG’s average assumptions by mode. A value of time (also segmented by journey purpose) is then applied to the assumed potential ranges of journey time savings over a 60-year appraisal period. Additionally, non-user impacts resulting from mode shift are calculated using TAG’s standard approach as presented in section 3.6.1. Estimated wider impacts are based on proportions of either business users’ or all transport users’ impacts as applicable.

The full range of inputs and assumptions that feed into this high-level appraisal approach can be broadly broken into two categories:

General appraisal assumptions, mostly from default standard practice within TAG guidance and recommendations; and

Scheme specific assumptions, many of which have been introduced in the sections above.

The general assumptions are summarised in Table 3-26. For the reasons described in previous section there is a high degree of uncertainty in relation to the key assumptions around journey times, demand and revenue, while the cost assessment is still at an early stage.

Table 3-26: TAG and scheme specific appraisal assumptions

Parameters	Assumptions	Source
Appraisal Period	60-year period	TAG Unit A1.1 Section 2.3
Period of Construction	Costs split over three years 2024/25 to 2026/27	high level assumption given the stage it’s currently at
Scheme Opening Year	2027 assumed	assumption
Discounting rate and year	2010 base year, discounted 3.5% p.a. for 30 years from 2021 and 3% thereafter	TAG Table A1.1.1
TAG Databook	July 2021 v1.15	DfT TAG
Lag for new stations and services	Years 1 to 4 factors: 0.53, 0.78, 0.9, 0.98	PDFH Table B9.5
Journey Purpose	Rail: Commute 43.4%, Business 7.8%, Leisure 48.7%	TAG Table A1.3.4
Market price adjustment	19% uplift from factor prices	TAG Unit A1.2 Scheme Costs, Appendix A
Optimism Bias	CAPEX 56% OPEX 41%	TAG Unit A5.3 Rail Appraisal, Table 3
Capex and Opex real price inflation	Included in OB at this stage	Assumption at GRIP1
Values of time	Average values of all working persons’ time, and values of non-working time	TAG Table A1.3.1 and Annual Parameters
Marginal external costs	Weighted average values for South West region	TAG Table A5.4.1 and Table A5.4.2
Road-rail diversion factor	31% (of new rail trips have shifted from road)	TAG Table A5.4.5
Highway vehicle occupancy	1.57 average passengers per car trip, all-week average	TAG Table A1.3.3
Highway mileage per car trip	Average 8.5 miles per car trip	Long-term all-England average 2002-2019, NTS0409b
Journey time savings	Average 16 minutes per trip	Section 0
Rail Demand	Baseline assumption of 350,000 trips per year in opening year and background population growth thereafter	Section 3.3
Demand growth	In line with background population growth	Common assumption used for rail appraisal schemes.
Wider economic impacts	10% of business user impacts 10% of transport economic efficiency	Section 3.6.2
Revenue	Baseline assumption that average revenue per trip is £6.	Section 3.5

On the basis of the baseline assumptions above Table 3-27 below shows the appraisal results with the costs of Devizes Gateway only and separately with the costs for supporting infrastructure at Bedwyn and Westbury also included.

Table 3-27: Baseline appraisal results (2010 prices and values) – assuming 350,000 trips per annum with a 16 minute journey time saving.

Parameter	Baseline appraisal with costs for Devizes Gateway only	Baseline appraisal, with costs for Devizes Gateway and supporting infrastructure at Bedwyn and Westbury
Present Value of Benefits	£22.5	£22.5
Present Value of Revenue	£78.4	£78.4
Present Value of Investment Costs	£30.9	£50.0
Present Value of Operating Costs	£67.3	£71.5
Present Value of Costs	£19.8	£43.1
Net Present Value	£2.7	-£20.6
Benefit to Cost Ratio	1.14	0.52
Induced investment	£0.4	£0.4
Agglomeration	£2.2	£2.2
Adjusted PVB	£25.1	£25.1
Adjusted BCR	1.27	0.58

The results show that under these high level baseline assumptions around demand, journey time savings and revenue the scheme is likely to be low value for money if the costs of the works at Bedwyn and Westbury are excluded and poor value for money if the costs of this associated infrastructure is included. As shown in the following sections the results are sensitive to the relatively uncertain assumptions around demand and revenue. Note that this appraisal excludes the following items:

No assessment has been undertaken of the potential benefits a loop at Bedwyn or a new platform at Westbury could provide, beyond their being necessary to support a train service to Devizes.

No assessment of the benefits or revenue has been undertaken to users of Pewsey and Westbury that will see a considerably improved rail service through extension of the services that currently terminate at Bedwyn.

Costs for leasing or procuring new rolling stock have not been included, as it may be that the services can be provided within the existing GWR fleet.

The costs and benefits of providing a shuttle bus to and from the station have been excluded.

Sensitivity Testing

In order to gauge the scale of impact that alternative demand assumptions might have, this section considers variations in the assumed demand or journey time savings. This section also considers the effects of variations in overall costs and potential demand growth scenarios.

Variations in demand

The baseline scenario assumes 350,000 users per annum increasing at the same rate as population growth. As discussed in previous sections there is considerable uncertainty around the relatively high level analysis undertaken at this stage, and therefore two sensitivity tests have considered the impact of 21% higher or lower levels of forecast demand such that demand is either 275,000 or 425,000 trips per annum. Table 3-28 summarises the potential appraisal results given low or high demand, while keeping all other variables of journey time savings, mode shift, wider impacts and costs fixed.

Table 3-28: Demand sensitivity test (2010 prices and values)

	Lower demand	Higher demand
Assumed demand (trips/yr) in OY	275,000	425,000
Assumed journey time savings (min/trip)	16	16
Present Value of Benefits	£17.7	£27.4
Present Value of Revenue	£61.5	£95.3
Present Value of Investment Costs	£30.9	£30.9
Present Value of Operating Costs	£67.3	£67.3
Present Value of Costs	£36.7	£2.9
Benefit to Cost Ratio	0.48	9.49
Adjusted PVB	£19.7	£30.5
Adjusted BCR	0.54	10.60

This shows that the appraisal is relatively sensitive to the demand assumptions, which at this stage have been estimated by relatively simplistic trip rate analysis. Demand not only drive user benefits (assumed to be an average of 16 minutes per person), but also drives revenue (assumed to be £9 per person), and together with the gearing effect of the revenue appearing on the denominator of the BCR, this can mean different assumptions around demand can have a significant impact on the BCR. A 20% reduction in forecast demand can move the scheme from low to poor value for money, while a 20% increase in forecast demand can move the scheme to very high.

Impacts of applying growth

The baseline scenario assumes that demand grows in line with national population growth. Long term growth forecasts, particularly with the impact of covid are relatively uncertain. Table 3-29 summarises the results if it is assumed that demand would shrink or grow at 2% p.a. from opening year, for 20 years, with background population growth rates thereafter.

Table 3-29: Demand growth sensitivity test (2010 prices and values) – assuming 350,000 trips per annum with a 16 minute journey time saving.

	Negative growth	Positive growth
Assumed demand growth	-2% p.a. for 20 years	+2% p.a. for 20 years
Present Value of Benefits	£15.7	£29.6
Present Value of Revenue	£78.4	£78.4
Present Value of Investment Costs	£30.9	£30.9
Present Value of Operating Costs	£67.3	£67.3
Present Value of Costs	£20	£20
Benefit to Cost Ratio	0.80	1.49
Adjusted PVB	£17.6	£33.0
Adjusted BCR	0.89	1.67

This shows the BCR is less sensitive to the growth assumptions than to the baseline level of demand based upon opening. However, a growth rate of 2%per annum does move the BCR into a medium value for money scheme.

Reduced journey time savings

The baseline journey time saving is assumed to be on average 16 minutes per person. Table 3-30 presents the results of a further test to gauge the effects of halving the average journey time saving to 8 minutes. As discussed in section 3.2.9 this may provide a better a better representation of the average journey time saving seen by passengers if the proportion of Devizes Gateway users accessing by car modes.

Table 3-30: Journey time sensitivity test (2010 prices and values)

	Reduced journey time savings
Assumed demand (trips/yr) in OY	349,969
Assumed journey time savings (min/trip)	8
Present Value of Benefits	£12
Present Value of Revenue	£78.4
Present Value of Investment Costs	£30.9
Present Value of Operating Costs	£67.3
Present Value of Costs	£20
Benefit to Cost Ratio	0.62
Adjusted PVB	£14
Adjusted BCR	0.69

This shows the benefits fall in proportion to the journey time, and so in this instance with a halving of the journey time assumption the benefits are also halved. The net impact is that the scheme moves from low to poor value for money.

Variations in costs

Table 3-31 summarises the effects that variations in the point cost estimates of implementation could have on the appraisal results. The reduced costs assume a 50% reduction or a 50% uplift upon the point cost estimate of £19.1m in Q2 2021 prices, as presented in Table 3-18.

Table 3-31: Costs sensitivity test (2010 prices and values)

	Reduced cost	Increased cost
Assumed demand (trips/yr) in OY	349,969	349,969
Assumed journey time savings (min/trip)	16	16
Present Value of Benefits	£22.5	£22.5
Present Value of Revenue	£78.4	£78.4
Present Value of Investment Costs	£15.4	£46.4
Present Value of Operating Costs	£67.3	£67.3
Present Value of Costs	£4	£35
Benefit to Cost Ratio	5.22	0.64
Adjusted PVB	£25.1	£25.1
Adjusted BCR	5.83	0.71

Variations in fare revenue

The baseline revenue is forecast to be an average of £6 per person. As set out in section 3.5 this is based on high level analysis that contains high levels of uncertainty. If the revenue is forecast to be 50% higher or lower then this can be seen to have a dramatic impact on the BCR; under a high revenue test the BCR becomes financially positive.

Table 3-32: Revenue sensitivity test (2010 prices and values) assuming 350,000 trips per annum with a 16 minute journey time saving

	Reduced revenue	Increased revenue
Assumed average net revenue	£3	£12
Present Value of Benefits	£22.5	£22.5
Present Value of Revenue	£39.2	£156.8
Present Value of Investment Costs	£30.9	£30.9
Present Value of Operating Costs	£67.3	£67.3
Present Value of Costs	£59.0	-£58.6
Benefit to Cost Ratio	0.38	-0.38
Adjusted PVB	£25.1	£25.1
Adjusted BCR	0.43	-0.43

Other impacts

GVA

Separately, the SWLEP Rail Strategy identified that Devizes Gateway station would have an GVA of £6.56m per year and that an extension of the Bedwyn service to Westbury would have a GVA of £5.85m pa.

Journey quality

The potential journey quality impacts arising from this scheme could consider the effects of either the new station facilities or the effects of changing demand on passenger crowding. The perceived user benefits of being able to use new or upgraded station facilities could be valued in terms of passengers’ willingness to pay for better facilities. On the other hand, any changes in crowding levels across the public transport network as a result of changes in demand could be represented in terms of weighted generalised journey times.

However, the scales of impacts would typically be ‘orders of magnitude’ smaller than transport users’ journey time impacts, so in the absence of formal demand forecasting and journey time impacts analysis across the rail network, these potential journey quality impacts are not quantified at this stage.

Option and non-use values

The opening of a new station on the Berks and Hants line between Pewsey and Westbury could be perceived as a significant change in the availability of public transport in the area around Devizes. Residents of villages in the vicinity of the new station site may value the option of using any of the rail services at the station even if they may not normally intend to use the services. The perceived benefits of the availability of additional transport choice could be measured in terms of people’s willingness-to-pay for having the option.

Option values can theoretically be monetised but the evidence underpinning these values is considered less robust, therefore this appraisal acknowledges that there would be potential option values, but these are not formally quantified for purposes of assessing the plausible scales of quantified benefits that may arise from the scheme .

Wider considerations

In November 2020, the Treasury published a review of its appraisal guidance known as the Green Book, to ensure that it was able meet the Government’s wider policy objectives around levelling up and decarbonisation. The review found that BCRs by themselves may not always be aligned to the decision makers’ wider policy objectives and can instead focus on those benefits that it is easy to put a monetary value upon. The new guidance makes clear that the assessment of value for money is broader than the BCR alone, and that it should assess all the relevant costs and benefits to society, not just narrowly economic ones.

The Green Book review has recommended new guidance that amongst other things puts additional emphasis on the assessment of transformative impacts, the analysis of place-based impacts, and analysis of differential impacts. The review also identifies a number of the priority outcomes that are strongly focused on levelling up including:

An outcome to raise productivity and empower places so that everyone can benefit from levelling up;

An outcome to level up education standards: so that children and young people in every part of the country are prepared with the knowledge, skills and qualifications they need; and

Maximise employment across the country to aid economic recovery following Covid-19.

Economic Case Summary and Conclusions

The approach to assessing the Economic Case is consistent with DfT’s Restoring Your Railway (Beeching) Ideas Fund guidance, and considers the DfT’s TAG, Business Case and Value for Money guidance, and is a proportionate assessment at this stage of the scheme’s development.

The Economic Case analysis shows that based upon a high-level set of baseline assumptions around demand, revenue and journey time savings the scheme is likely to be low value for money if the costs of the works at Bedwyn and Westbury are excluded and poor value for money if the costs of this associated infrastructure is included, although it is worth noting that there are a variety of benefits not being captured by the appraisal, such as the benefits to users of other stations.

Sensitivity testing shows that the appraisal is very sensitive to key assumptions around demand and revenue. This shows that the appraisal is particularly sensitive to the demand assumptions, which at this stage have been estimated by relatively simplistic trip rate analysis that is subject to high levels of uncertaintity. Demand not only drive user benefits (assumed to be an average of 16 minutes per person), but also drives revenue (assumed to be £9 per person), and together with the gearing effect of the revenue appearing on the denominator of the BCR, this can mean different assumptions around demand can have a significant impact on the BCR. A 20% reduction in forecast demand can move the scheme from low to poor value for money, while a 20% increase in forecast demand can move the scheme to very high.

It is important to note however that while the BCR is an important element of the business case, the case or not for investing in the scheme should not be reliant upon it. In November 2020, the Treasury published a review of its appraisal guidance known as the Green Book, to ensure that it was able meet the Government’s wider policy objectives around levelling up and decarbonisation. The review found that BCRs by themselves may not always be aligned to the decision makers’ wider policy objectives and can instead focus on those benefits that it is easy to put a monetary value upon. The new guidance makes clear that the assessment of value for money is broader than the BCR alone, and that it should assess all the relevant costs and benefits to society, not just narrowly economic ones.

Any case for investment, is therefore likely to be made on the potential wider transformative impacts the scheme would have on a region. Although these impacts can be quite hard to measure and quantify using standard appraisal approaches, it is still appropriate for decision makers to consider these elements within the overall context of value for money.

As the scheme further develops, the next stage of a business case would be to develop a demand model and appraisal framework that can undertake a more detailed economic appraisal. In particular, the availability of such a model would help sift options to help determine exactly which option, service frequency and destinations provide the largest benefits per pound of investment. Further work to better understand the potential wider impacts of the scheme on homes and jobs is also recommended.

Financial Case

Introduction

This chapter presents, at a high level, the costs and affordability of the Devizes Gateway scheme. The capital costs are presented for both the station and the ancillary infrastructure at Bedwyn and Westbury are, broken down by item type. Operational cost estimates are available at this stage. A number of potential funding sources for the scheme have been considered, as has a high-level budget profile.

The structure of the Financial Case is as follows:

Costs.

Funding sources.

Funding profile.

Scheme Costs

The capital costs for constructing the station and supporting infrastructure at Bedwyn and Westbury have been calculated in Q2 2021 prices using high-level itemised costings as set out in section 3.4. The scheme cost breakdown is shown in Table 4-1, excluding contingency and risk allowance. DfT’s TAG guidance sets out that for a project at this early stage of development that an optimism bias uplift of 56% should be applied to the net capital costs.

Table 4-1 - Scheme costs (2021 prices)

Group	Elements	Devizes Station £ million	Bedwyn Loop £ million	Westbury Platform £ million
Direct Construction Works	Railway Control Systems	0.1	0.8	1.2

Electric Power and Plant	0.2	0.1	0.1

Permanent Way / Track.	0.1	0.8	0.9

Telecommunication Systems	0.6	0.1	0.2

Buildings and Property	1.2	0.0	0.0

Civil Engineering	8.4	1.6	0.5

Enabling Works	0.3	0.1	0.1
Indirect Construction Costs	Preliminaries	3.6	1.1	1.0

Contractor Overheads and Profit	1.3	0.4	0.4
Development and Other Costs	Project Design Team Fees	1.3	0.5	0.5

NR Project Management Team Fees	1.2	0.4	0.4

Other Project Development (excluding Land Cost and compensation costs)	0.6	0.3	0.2

Land cost	0.2	0.1	0.0
Point Estimate (Construction + Development cost) excluding contingency and risk allowance	19.1	6.3	5.5
Capital costs including 56% Optimism Bias	29.7	9.8	8.6

Costs for the operation of the proposed extension of Bedwyn services to Westbury are based on assumptions around the additional mileage and costs of train crew. These costs are estimated to amount to around £1.75m per annum, comprising around £1.1m for mileage (covering fuel, materials, Variable Track Access Charge (VTAC), and around £650k for train crew costs. Rolling stock lease costs are excluded on the basis that an additional 5 car set could be deployed from the existing fleet. The assumptions around rolling stock will need to be confirmed at the next stage of development; and cost estimation in general will need to be refined as the scheme and service specification become more concretely defined. Table 3-21 summarises the elements of operating costs.

It is important to note that at this stage of the study no estimate has been made of:

Any additional rolling stock capital or lease costs. At this stage GWR anticipate the service extension can be provided within the existing fleet.

The annual operating costs needed to operate a shuttle bus to the station, including the procurement of suitable vehicles. No estimate has been made either of any revenue might be raised from such a service, and which would be expected to wholly or partly offset these operating costs.

Funding Sources

Funding Sources

The document ‘Restoring Your Railway: Guidance on funding expectations’ issued by the DfT on 16 July 2021 sets out consistent funding expectations for RYR schemes that continue development through the programme. In terms of the Development Stage, the document states that the DfT will fund up to 100% of further development costs for successful schemes, supporting schemes to develop up to FBC/Final Investment Decision. It is made clear, however, that local financial contributions or work in kind are encouraged and that any contributions made through the development stage will be taken into account when considering whether a scheme should proceed to delivery.

In the event that the proposal progresses beyond the SOBC stage, and in view of the above, Wiltshire Council will liaise with relevant partners such as the SWLEP, train operating companies, community rail partnerships and others to explore local funding contribution opportunities to support the development of the OBC. In this regard, Devizes Town Council has already committed £34,000 to the development of the OBC. The ambition would be to secure up to a 15% third-party local contribution.

In terms of the Delivery stage, the document referred to above states that the DfT will consider what level of local contribution has been sourced by the promoter when assessing an FBC and considering whether a scheme should proceed to delivery. It also states that 15-25% of the costs of transport infrastructure projects are routinely sourced from local contributions although it is appreciated that this may not be possible in all areas. At this stage it is anticipated that the local contribution for delivery of Devizes Gateway could come from Wiltshire Council’s Local Transport Plan Integrated Block and development-related Section 106 and Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) funding. Additional funding sources that will be explored include the Levelling-Up Fund and the SWLEP’s Growing Places Infrastructure Fund (GPIF).

Funding Profile

Timescales for the RYR funding programme have yet to be published, so the funding profile for the scheme is uncertain at this stage. This will become clearer at the next stage of the Business Case process.

Commercial Case

Introduction

The Commercial Case outlines the delivery partners and their procurement strategy, as well as the statutory and other regulatory processes which need to be managed for the scheme to be delivered successfully. The Commercial Case provides evidence on the commercial viability of the proposal and the procurement strategy that will be used to construct the scheme.

The outcomes which the preferred procurement strategy must deliver are to:

Achieve cost certainty, or certainty that the scheme can be delivered within the available funding constraints.

Minimise further preparation costs with respect to scheme design by ensuring best value, and appropriate quality.

Obtain contractor experience and input to the construction programme to ensure the implementation programme is robust and achievable.

Obtain contractor input to risk management and appraisals, including mitigation measures, to capitalise at an early stage on opportunities to reduce construction risk and improve outturn certainty thereby reducing risks to a level that is ‘As Low As Reasonably Practicable’ (ALARP).

The structure of the Commercial Case is as follows:

Procurement Strategy including:

Delivery Partners

Procurement Timescales

Contract Management

Risk Allocation and Transfer

Statutory and Other Regulatory Consents.

Procurement Strategy

Any future procurement process will be run in strict accordance with the legislative framework set out in the Wiltshire Council Corporate Procurement Strategy (2020) and will comply with the Best Value processes as set out in the Wiltshire Council Procurement Manual (2019). In addition, the process will be governed by the Council's Constitution Part 10 Procurement and Contract Rules (2019). To support this, early advice and support will be sought from Wiltshire Council’s Strategic Procurement Hub, who are highly experienced in strategic procurement and contract management, to ensure that the procurement process meets the expected high standards routinely demonstrated by Wiltshire Council.

The following considerations need to be accounted for in relation to the procurement of the scheme:

The primary considerations are the supplier’s ability to effectively carry out the works and early engagement of the supplier to ensure the inclusion of skills and knowledge at the earliest stage.

Complex engineering design capabilities will be required during the design and construction of the works due to the site’s relationship with the railway and AONB.

There is the possibility there will be a time constraint on the project (e.g. a requirement for all /some funding to be spent on the project within specific financial years).

Consideration of traffic management arrangements during construction.

Supplier environmental credentials.

Evaluation of social and environmental considerations in procurement process, for example use of sustainable materials, disposal of waste materials, use of local sub-contractors and human resources, etc.

Economic considerations in terms of value for money of suppliers.

The main types of procurement strategy for capital works are:

Traditional: design by client-engaged consultants before tender and separate placement of a contract for the construction works.

Design & Build (D&B): detailed design and construction are both undertaken by the same organisation.

Design & Construct (D&C): a hybrid of ‘traditional’ and D&B where part of the design is prepared before the contractor is appointed.

Construction management: design by the client's consultants and construction of the works overlap. A fee-earning construction manager defines and manages the work packages. All contracts are between a client and the trade contractors. The final cost of the project may only be accurately forecast when all packages have been let.

Management contracting: design by the client's consultant and construction overlap. A management contractor is appointed early to let elements of work progressively by trade or package contracts ('works packages'). The contracts are between the management contractor and the works contractors. As with construction management, the final cost can only be forecast with reasonable certainty when the last package has been let.

Private Finance Initiative/Public-Private Partnership (PFI/PPP): This procurement route is typically where a public sector client buys services with defined outputs from the private sector on a long-term basis, typically for 25 years. This will typically involve constructing and maintaining the delivered asset, and consequently the supplier is incentivised in this model to have the highest regard to whole-life costing as it has the risk of future operation and maintenance costs for a substantial period of time.

Decisions regarding the preferred procurement strategy will be made at OBC stage once the requirements of the proposed scheme have been defined with greater certainty. Consideration will be given to traditional procurement versus alternative approaches such as D&B, and the relative merits of letting a single contract or a series of contracts.

Management Case

Introduction

The Management Case outlines the appropriate governance structure for the delivery partners, the high-level project programme with key dependencies and milestones. The Management Case ensures that the project is deliverable. It demonstrates that timescales and phasing are well established and realistic, that an appropriate governance structure is in place to oversee delivery, that risks have been identified and suitable management processes developed, and that there are robust plans for communications and stakeholder management. The management case also includes measures to ensure that the benefits set out in the economic case are realised and to assess and evaluate the impacts.

At this stage the management case has been prepared on the basis of Wiltshire Council’s approach, but this may change in due course if there is a change of project sponsor and delivery agency.

The station would be developed in accordance with the DfT’s Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline (RNEP) process and using Network Rail’s Governance for Rail Investment Projects (GRIP) process or Project Acceleration in a Controlled Environment (PACE). Using this process will ensure rail industry support for the scheme and demonstrate that the station is deliverable.

The structure of the Management Case is as follows:

Implementation of similar projects.

Governance structure.

Project programme.

Assurance and approvals.

Communications and stakeholder management.

Key risks.

Implementation of Similar Projects

While Wiltshire Council has no recent experience of delivering a rail station, it has extensive experience of delivering major road schemes and reasonably recent experience of working with the rail industry to deliver an enhanced train service and station improvements.

Delivered major road schemes:

A350 North of Chippenham: the A350 North of Chippenham was a £2.7m scheme funded partly through the Government’s Local Pinch Point Fund. The scheme comprised of a combination of road widening and junction improvements. Construction of the scheme was completed in February 2015. The scheme was originally set to be completed in December 2014, but due to design issues this was rescheduled to early 2015. Construction was completed in February 2015, with an outturn construction cost of £3.82m, with extra funding from Wiltshire Council.

A350 Chippenham Bypass Improvements (Bumpers Farm): the Bumpers Farm Improvements, completed in February 2016, was a £3.4 million scheme funded by the Local Growth Fund. The scheme delivered increased capacity along the A350 Chippenham Bypass near Bumpers Farm roundabout. The scheme was programmed for a 38-week construction period. However, despite minor design changes, the works were completed 7 weeks ahead of schedule. The scheme quarterly spend profile matched that predicted in the Full Business Case and the project was completed to budget.

A350 Chippenham Bypass Improvements (Badger-Brook and Chequers): the A350 Chippenham Bypass Improvements (Badger-Brook and Chequers), completed in early 2019, was a £7.2 million scheme funded by the LGF with a small local contribution. This delivered capacity enhancements at Chequers roundabout and on the A350 between Badgers and Brook roundabouts. The scheme was programmed for a 13-month construction period, due to be complete in August 2018. Minor delays, due general project over-runs, meant the operational benefits of the scheme were not fully realised until October 2018 and final minor works completed in January 2019.

M4 Junction 17: the M4 Junction 17 Improvements scheme was a £1.46 million scheme funded jointly by the SWLEP (£0.50 million) and local contributions (£0.96 million). The scheme delivered partial signalisation at the junction at the M4 off-slips and was completed in May 2018.

Over the period 2012/13 to 2014/15, Wiltshire Council, working in partnership with the rail industry and local partners, delivered a rail-focused Local Sustainable Transport Fund (LSTF) programme. The ‘Improving Wiltshire’s Rail offer’ programme comprised three core elements, focused around improving north-south rail connectivity in Wiltshire, and encouraging sustainable travel to rail stations:

Rail service improvements: enhanced TransWilts service between Westbury and Swindon (via Melksham) increased from two trains each way per day to eight each way per day.

Hub elements: package targeted at the key stations on the TransWilts Line to create sustainable ‘transport hubs’, plus schemes at other Wiltshire stations to deal with locally identified problems.

Line elements: measures to encourage the use of the line as a whole.

The programme amounted to £5.5m (£1.554m capital and £2.696m revenue):

£4.25m from the DfT’s LSTF.

£870,000 was secured in local contributions, including contributions from the rail industry, the Council’s LTP Integrated Transport Block, and Trowbridge Town Council and Salisbury Business Improvement District (BID).

£390,000 of Wiltshire Council staff time in kind, in addition to the aforementioned local contribution.

Plus volunteer support from the TransWilts CRP.

Governance Structure

A Devizes Gateway Steering Group has been established to oversee strategic planning, development and delivery of the proposed Devizes Gateway Station. The responsibilities of the Steering Group are as follows:

To oversee, direct and monitor the preparation of the Project Development Plan and preparation of the Strategic Outline Case for Devizes Gateway Station by appointed consultants for approval by DfT in response to a successful application for RyR Ideas Funding from DfT.

To provide advice and ensure that all work undertaken complies with relevant planning policy, strategic plans, DfT guidance and takes account of rail industry plans.

To approve and monitor a public engagement programme including a preliminary survey for options development to support the SOC and inform the design of the station and its access moving forwards following SOC approval.

To secure the necessary resources (pro-bono, in kind, and funding) for the delivery team to undertake the necessary activities.

To ensure effective, adequate and appropriate corporate governance and internal control arrangements.

Subject to SOC approval, to oversee the development of the station design, planning application and implementation. The precise mechanism for delivery of the station, whether through Rail Network Enhancement Pipeline or Network Rail’s Open for Business initiative and GIP process is to be determined.

The current membership of the Steering Group is as follows:

Table 6-1 - Steering Group

Organisation	Member(s)	Organisational Role
Devizes Development Partnership (Rail Group)	Councillor Tamara Reay Catharine Symington	
Great Western Railway	Matthew Barnes	Regional Development Manager
Network Rail	Jonathan Lovatt	Senior Strategic Planner
SWLEP	Dragana Houston	Head of Implementation: People, Ideas and Infrastructure
Wiltshire Council	Parvis Khansari Robert Murphy David Phillips	Director Highways and Environment Principal Transport and Development Manager Senior Transport Planner

The current Chair of the Steering Group is Councillor Tamara Reay with Robert Murphy acting as Vice-Chair. These appointments were agreed for the SOC stage and are to be reviewed at the completion of this stage of development. The Steering Group is supported by Rebecca Hudson, Chief of Staff to Danny Kruger MP, as Secretary.

Wiltshire Council will establish a Project Board for delivering the Devizes Gateway station scheme. The Project Board will take overall responsibility for its delivery and will be formed of Council representatives at sufficiently senior level to have authority to act on behalf of the Council. Meetings of the Project Board will take place at least monthly, but will also be linked to key milestones, where they will consider progress through Highlight and Exception Reports, changes to the risk register, and changes to the Scheme Implementation Programme.

The Project Board will be led by the Senior Responsible Owner (SRO). The SRO will chair the Project Board and be responsible for providing guidance and direction to the Project Director and Project Manager. The SRO will ensure that the project team is progressing the scheme in line with the Scheme Implementation Programme and that outputs and milestones agreed by the Project Board are achieved.

The Project Director and Project Manager will be appointed by the SRO and will be responsible for delivering the scheme in line with the agreed controls and procedure set out in the Project Plan. They will report to, and be accountable to, the SRO and the Project Board. The primary focus of the Project Manager will be to ensure that the scheme is delivered on time, within budget and to specification, working under the guidance of the Project Director. The Project Manager will also be responsible for preparing Highlight and Exception Reports.

Representatives from Network Rail, Great Western Railway and the Devizes Development Partnership will be fully integrated into the Governance structure.

The proposed membership of the Project Board is outlined in Table 6-2.

Table 6-2 - Project Board

Organisation	Member	Organisational Role	Project Role
Wiltshire Council	Parvis Khansari	Director Highways and Environment	Senior Responsible Officer (SRO)

Andy Brown	Corporate Director Resources & Deputy Chief Executive	S151 Officer

Richard Walters	Head of Service – Major Projects	Project Director

To be confirmed		Project Manager
Atkins	To be confirmed		Senior Supplier
Contractor (to be established through procurement / tender process)	To be confirmed		Senior Supplier
Network Rail	To be confirmed		Sponsor

To be confirmed		Asset Protection Manager
Great Western Railway	Matthew Barnes	Regional Development Manager	Senior User
Devizes Development Partnership	To be confirmed		Senior User

Underneath the Project Board would sit the Delivery Team which would have the key responsibilities of:

Technical delivery of the scheme

Highlighting risk and variance

Managing outcomes

Identifying options for reducing cost

Stakeholder engagement.

The required capabilities of the Delivery Team are set out in Table 6-3.

Table 6-3 - Delivery Team

Organisation	Role	Responsibility
Wiltshire Council	CDM Co-ordinator	Ensuring accordance with CDM Regulations.

Communications	Stakeholder and public engagement

Financial support	Finance compliance and administration

Legal support	Agreements, conveyancing, etc

Procurement support	Procurement compliance and administration
Atkins / Faithful & Gould	Technical and planning support	Technical design, construction assurance and planning permission

Financial / Commercial / Risk Management support	
Contractor	Contractor Project Manager	

Contractor Engineering Manager	
Network Rail	Project Engineer	Technical design and construction activities approvals
Great Western Railway	Regional Development Manager	Commercial agreements
Devizes Development Partnership	Stakeholder support	Stakeholder and public engagement

Project Programme

The complexities of the rail industry create the potential for a large range of interdependencies for any rail project. New rail stations, however, are generally dependent on a limited number of factors relating to funding, timetable modifications, land availability and planning/access arrangements:

The development and delivery of Devizes Gateway station would be dependent on approval of funding by the DfT and an element of local funding.

Development of an appropriate timetable is essential and there are challenges to be overcome due to the impact on and interaction with current services.

While some work has been undertaken to understand land availability/constraints, this would need to be further investigated and understood at the OBC stage. It is assumed that the land for the proposed station could be acquired through the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act (2004).

An informal pre-application process has been undertaken. This has established that the proposal is supported by the policies of the Development Plan that seek to encourage sustainable transport in Devizes and Wiltshire. Although the site is within the AONB, it is considered that a suitably designed scheme could be assimilated into the landscape without any significant adverse impact on the scenic beauty of the area. It is highlighted, however, that more work is required to ensure that the development can be undertaken without unacceptable harm to interests of acknowledged importance, including biodiversity and ecology, flooding and drainage, and landscape impact.

Project Plan

Some key future milestones for the project are shown in Table 6-4.

Table 6-4 - Key milestones

Milestone	Date
Further business case development: scheme development, modelling, construction methodology, finance and funding options	2022-2023
Planning, design, approval and procurement	2023-2025
Construction and testing	2025-2027
Operation	2027

In progressing the project, the Project Team will seek to utilise the concepts of Project SPEED (Swift, Pragmatic and Efficient Enhancement Delivery) to seek to lower costs and speed up the delivery of the scheme.

Assurance and Approvals Plan

Project assurance will be undertaken in accordance with Network Rail’s GRIP / PACE process. This includes the allocation of a Network Rail Sponsor, Project Manager and Designated Project Engineer to independently support the management and development of the project.

Communications and Stakeholder Management

Effective stakeholder engagement and communications will be essential to the successful development and delivery of the project. An experienced team with extensive local knowledge will form an integral part of the Delivery team to ensure stakeholders’ perspectives are embedded in the project’s decision-making process and also be represented on the Project Board. They will build on the stakeholder relationships and engagement established during the development of the SOC.

Devizes Development Partnership, as partner to Wiltshire Council, led stakeholder engagement and communications activities to support the development of the SOC. A Stakeholder Engagement Strategy was developed for the project that falls into three phases. Objectives for each phase of engagement were set out across the project delivery lifecycle, including public consultation prior to submission of the planning application for the station with extensive community engagement and communication plans continuing through the construction phase.

Phase 1 – Early stage feasibility and strategic outline business case

Phase 2 – Option selection, design development, OBC and planning application process

Phase 3 – Full Business Case, detailed design, construction, testing and entry into service

Phase 1 related to the preparation of the SOC and included stakeholder identification and mapping, assessment of their likely influence and interest in the scheme and its potential impact upon them, timing of engagement. The full stakeholder map is attached in Appendix A. Proportionate early engagement was commenced with stakeholders who have direct influence over the shaping and feasibility of the project to gain relevant information and obtain their views. All meetings were virtual due to COVID-19 restrictions and notes were made of each meeting. The map overleaf shows the stakeholders highlighted in yellow who were consulted for their views and information during the SOC preparation.

The response from engagement was positive and supportive of the new station. The findings are presented in Table 6-5. Further detail is provided in the appendices.

Table 6-5 - Key stakeholders

Key stakeholders	Role/purpose of engagement	Current status and feedback
DfT	RyR Budget holder and approver of SOC submission	Encouraged to focus on strength of strategic case. Recognise rural nature of project location.
GWR	TOC. Key to timetabling and operational feasibility of proposed station	Supported RyR application bid. See strategic case for Devizes Gateway and cross-Wilts connectivity. Need to establish minimum required to facilitate project and interface with other Wiltshire rail projects. Supportive in principle – assisting with operational feasibility.
Network Rail	Owner of network assets. Key to approval of railway works, delivery and maintenance.	Project strong on local transport and planning context, needs to fit with wider network. Westbury is critical factor, bottleneck needs to be resolved.
SWLEP	Potential source of funding and enabler for investment	Supportive. See station as catalyst for enhancing tourism opportunities, local economic growth and skills, in line with their Local Industrial and Rail Strategies. Link to Reading is key as is sustainability and decarbonisation.
Wiltshire Council Members	Devizes Area Board	Supportive. Station would improve public transport connectivity, fits with Decarbonisation strategy, will attract visitors and new business to Devizes
Wiltshire Council Planning Dept	Pre-app discussion; planning body for station planning application consent	Project fits with WCS Core Policy 60, needs sustainable access to station, sympathetic design to fit into AONB and sustainable drainage
Devizes Town Council	Proponent of station project. Budget holder for local S106 and CIL	Strongly supportive. Will enable Devizes area to enhance tourism, business growth and fulfil local plans and decarbonisation strategy. Agreed £34K provision for next stage of project development
Urchfont, Stert and Etchilhampton Parish Councils	Directly affected by proposed location of project	2 supportive in principle, 1 concerned about impact about potential station traffic on village.
North Wessex Downs AONB (Natural England)	Protect and manage AONB; key influence over planning application	Need to integrate station with landscape but recognise benefits station could bring, including providing sustainable access to open up responsible tourism across AONB. Minimise need for car parking.
Economic/Local Businesses	Interest in business growth	Supportive. Restored rail connectivity will help economic growth and businesses in area, improve recruitment of high skilled staff
Educational Bodies/Local Schools	Interest in future opportunities for their students	Supportive. Improved public transport and rail connectivity will help students access education and employment opportunities currently unavailable/difficult for them
VisitWiltshire		Strongly supportive. Station will connect Devizes area with Great West Way tourism initiative, adopted in SWLEP’s Local Industrial Strategy and enhance tourism opportunities business in area
Wiltshire Museum/DACT	Regeneration of Devizes Assize Court for Wiltshire Museum	Strongly supportive. Station catalyst for wider tourism business development in Devizes area

As part of the engagement programme, two online demand surveys were carried out across the Devizes Community Area in January 2021 and across the eastern villages of Wiltshire (Pewsey, Bedwyn, Kintbury to Hungerford) in February 2021. The headline findings from these surveys are presented in Section 2.8.

Moving forwards, the existing Stakeholder Engagement Strategy will be updated to reflect the objectives of Phase 2 engagement and the nine priorities from the Design Council’s ThinkStation report (listed in the Financial Case). The Stakeholder Management and Communications Plan will include full details of who will be consulted, for what purpose, when, how and how often and the engagement and communications mode and tools that will be used, taking into account any COVID-19 restrictions. An Engagement Tracker will ensure that all contact and necessary actions are recorded, together with allocation of responsibilities. This will provide a meticulous audit trail for evidence at planning application and act as a monitoring tool.

Stakeholder engagement will be supplemented by a range of regular, targeted communications. In Phase 1, the publicity campaign included ITV News interviews on the proposed station, radio interviews, editorials in the local press, a website page and social media coverage to raise public awareness of the scheme . These channels, together with those of local interest groups with whom good working relationships have been built, will be used appropriately, together with other communication tools such as e-letters. This combined approach will enable wide coverage and community access to project information. Close engagement and regular communications with key tourism stakeholders VisitWiltshire and GWR will also enable linkages to the marketing campaigns for the Great West Way tourism initiative and GWR’s services, including their new Discoverer Pass to encourage leisure travel.

Using a collaborative working approach between stakeholders and technical team members will facilitate speedy and effective consideration of stakeholder aspirations and constraints to inform project development, minimise objections and facilitate the planning process. A public consultation exercise will be carried out once outline design has developed sufficiently to provide an adequate level of information but early enough to influence selection of the design option prior to preparation of the planning application.

At Phase 3 stage, engagement will continue post planning consent through detailed design and construction. The vision for the project is that it should support and enhance the local community, reflecting local character and provide sustainable access. Once construction commences, the focus of engagement will move to the local community, ensuring the construction programme and methods are properly communicated, including timing of works, likely impact including any closures of access (e.g. pedestrian, highway), hours of work together with communications on progress. Engagement and communications will also support the discharge of any planning conditions as appropriate.

Key Risks

An initial risk register has been developed to identify the range of risks that could impact on the project and relevant mitigation measure. This is presented in Table 6-6.

As the scheme progresses to the OBC stage, the risk register will be developed and used as the basis of a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) which will replace the current risk allowance in the scheme cost estimates. Risk owners and mitigation measure will be identified, along with cost and time impacts for each risk. The register will be reviewed regularly and will pass to new owners as appropriate.

The risk management strategy will describe how risk management will be structured and performed on the project to ensure risks are being managed and controlled at acceptable levels. The objective of the risk management process is to minimise the impact of unplanned incidents on the project, by identifying and addressing potential risks before significant, negative consequences occur. It is planned that the risk management strategy will be developed for the OBC.

Table 6-6 - Initial risk register

Nature of risk	Cause	Implication	Mitigation
Business Case unviable due to bearing costs of 4th platform work at Westbury	Operational dependency on provision of 4th platform at Westbury	Project does not proceed	Consider alternative service patterns including use of semi-fast to Exeter to alleviate dependency. Share cost of work with other Wilts Rail schemes. NR and GWR have recognised that Westbury is a pinch point on the network and needs addressing.
Inability to achieve hourly service	Existing timetabling complexity	Negative impact on case for new station, failure to achieve key objective to attract passengers	Liaison with GWR and NR to determine overall Wiltshire Rail timetabling. Atkins to provide analysis. NR considering B&H line in their Strategic Study 2022.
Cost of additional trainset negatively affects BCR	Need for additional trainset to achieve service to Frome and turnaround times	Reduced opportunity to terminate service at Frome and provide alternative terminus to Westbury	Liaison with GWR and NR to determine overall Wiltshire Rail timetabling and possible availability of 1 IET due to reduced demand on other services arising from CV19.
Land acquisition cost escalation	Landowner negotiations to acquire privately owned land for station site	Possible negative impact on business case. If land acquisition is more difficult than expected, then this would lead to higher costs and extended delivery timescales.	Review limits of deviation and seek to minimise private land take in design. Maintain good relationships with landowners - already contacted and expressed support for project. Various options for land take to be kept open for negotiation. CPO also a possibility.
Objection from Natural England to new station	Station located in AONB - Natural England has influence over planning decision	Impedes granting of planning permission for station	Engage early with Natural England to understand any requirements or concerns and seek to alleviate
Lack of stakeholder and local community support	Station seen as unnecessary due to proximity of Pewsey. Disruption and change to local environment. Concern about increased road traffic.	Potential objections to planning application - failure to achieve permission.	Implementation of engagement and communications plan to explain to stakeholders and local community benefits of new station, hourly service, improved connectivity across county and to wider education, jobs, leisure and minimise their concerns. Engagement will provide two-way dialogue and opportunities to be involved in project development.
Cost of road works to provide access to station negatively affects BCR	Current challenging road layout requires extensive work to accommodate new station road access	Poor BCR undermines business case and project does not proceed	Consider alternative road access options. Engage with WC Highways to seek to share cost of station access with wider potential road improvement.
Lack of funds to take station project forward	Insufficient funds from NSF, WC to cover costs	Project stalls	Explore additional funding sources: SWLEP, CIL, Community Funding/Mutual Bonds
Political risk - change of local government and transport priorities	Wiltshire Council election May 2021	Reduced support for station leading to programme delay, lack of funding support, cancellation	Good regular engagement with Councils members and officers to ensure rationale and benefit of scheme communicated and understood.
Project delay/slippage	Devizes new station linked to other Wiltshire-wide rail projects on a different timescale and taken over by GWR agenda	Loss of momentum, delay to applying to New Stations Fund, loss of interest	Maintain good engagement with GWR, TransWilts and SWLEP to understand their priorities and ensure Devizes station gains their support and attention
Additional infrastructure, such as loops and the provision options require an additional platform at Westbury for reversing services.	Extending the Bedwyn to Westbury or Frome services may require	Delivering this enhancement would add significant complexity, cost and uncertainty to the scheme.	Liaison with GWR and NR to determine overall Wiltshire Rail timetabling
Selective door opening may be required on trains serving Devizes	The semi-fast service Exeter services are usually 9 or 10 car IEPs and would require the use of selective door opening to stop at 130m platforms	This is already common practice, with station such as Hungerford having 150m platforms	Regulatory approval will be required for the opening of a new station with selective door opening.
The station would need to have a high-quality public transport connection for passengers to reach Devizes from the station.	The proposed station location requires public transport connectivity to serve Devizes	To provide this kind of service may require ongoing financial support.	Develop a viable, cost-effective bus service with a strategy for ongoing financial support (if required).

Conclusions and Summary

With a population of over 19,000, Devizes is the largest settlement in Wiltshire without a rail station. The town’s station closed in 1966 due to limited passenger demand and as per the recommendations of the 1963 Reshaping of British Railway (Beeching) Report.

Devizes and the wider Community Area suffer from poor public transport connectivity to the wider region, where journey times are considerably in excess of a comparable journey made by the private car. Public transport journey times to key commuter destinations such as Melksham, Trowbridge and Chippenham can be double that of the private car.

Residential and employment growth is planned which will increase travel demand in Devizes and further strain the existing transport network. Furthermore, there are economic regeneration proposals, such as the Devizes Wharf, Wiltshire Museum, Technology & Enterprise Hub, and the opportunity to increase the town’s tourism offer within the wider Wiltshire area, Great West Way and Stonehenge and Avebury World Heritage Site.

A suitable transport intervention is required to improve the town’s accessibility and capacity. This will provide connections to jobs and education opportunities, to cater for planned growth and to attract economic growth, particularly in the tourism industry. A transport intervention would help the town under the Levelling Up agenda, ensuring rural communities are connected.

Options assessment indicates that re-instating rail in the local area is aligned with local, regional and national policy objectives. The Lydeway and Lavington station options are credible locations, with no significant design impediments although delivering a rail service is not straightforward. Initial rail operational feasibility analysis indicates that providing rail services at Devizes is operationally challenging with various implications for the rail line and neighbouring stations. Furthermore, due to the distance of the two station options from Devizes town centre, public transport solutions would need to be provided as part of the rail scheme.

Re-introducing the rail line into Devizes would offer the greatest convenience advantage as it would be situated closer to the town centre, but delivering this option would be considerably more costly and comes with deliverability risks associated with assessing the potential for re-introducing the historic rail line which has since been built over in places.

Improving bus connectivity in the area, particularly to existing stations, may also be welcomed as current connections are often slow and infrequent. Pewsey station for instance is very difficult to reach by public transport from Devizes, despite only being 12 miles away. While a station at Devizes will provide much faster journeys to destinations like London, Reading and Newbury, many other journeys such as those to Bristol or Bath will still be quicker via bus to stations such as Melksham and then getting a direct train.

The operational review concluded that providing rail services at Devizes is operationally challenging without additional infrastructure. The most viable option would offer an hourly stopping service to London and Westbury, by extending the London-Bedwyn service to Westbury. To enable this service extension would require necessitate the reinstatement of a fourth platform at Westbury and conversion of the existing turnback siding at Bedwyn into a new Up Loop.

The economic case has not been assessed in detail, but a high level analysis of journey times and demand has been undertaken. Analysis of journey times show that Devizes Gateway could provide a time saving of around half an hour for some journeys, particularly those to locations that would be directly served by trains from Devizes such as Newbury, Reading or London. However, the journey times to other more local destinations which form the bulk of Devizes commuting market, such as Swindon, Chippenham, Bristol and Bath are unlikely to be any shorter via Devizes Gateway except for the small numbers of people who live or work in close proximity to the station. For those who are able to access the rail network by car, the time savings are likely to by much smaller, and again focussed on the small numbers travelling to or from destinations close to the station. This implies that the main market for Devizes Gateway are likely to travellers without access to a car travelling on longer distances to and from Reading and London.

In the absence of a demand model, accurately assessing the demand for the station at this stage is difficult. Trip rate analysis shows the demand at the station could be up to 350,000 passengers per year but given the high nature and relatively simplistic nature of the analysis this forecast is subject to high levels of uncertainty.

The Economic Case analysis shows that based upon a high-level set of baseline assumptions around demand, revenue and journey time savings the scheme is likely to be low value for money if the costs of the works at Bedwyn and Westbury are excluded and poor value for money if the costs of this associated infrastructure is included, although it is worth noting that there are a variety of benefits not being captured by the appraisal, such as the benefits to users of other stations.

Sensitivity testing shows that the appraisal is very sensitive to key assumptions around demand and revenue. This shows that the appraisal is particularly sensitive to the demand assumptions, which at this stage have been estimated by relatively simplistic trip rate analysis that is subject to high levels of uncertainty. Demand not only drive user benefits (assumed to be an average of 16 minutes per person), but also drives revenue (assumed to be £9 per person), and together with the gearing effect of the revenue appearing on the denominator of the BCR, this can mean different assumptions around demand can have a significant impact on the BCR. A 20% reduction in forecast demand can move the scheme from low to poor value for money, while a 20% increase in forecast demand can move the scheme to very high.

At this stage the scheme is still at an early stage and the Financial, Commercial and Management Cases have only been progressed to a limited extent. An initial risk register has been produced, along with an indicative programme and project timeline. Furthermore, project governance and communications/stakeholder management processes have been identified.

Next steps

The findings of this SOC will be reflected upon to understand how the scheme develops and progresses from here, in terms of making decisions on investing in further developing the business case for the Devizes Gateway rail station. As per the DfT business case process, the next stage of scheme development is the Outline Business Case (OBC) and then the Full Business Case (FBC) with each stage incrementally building additional levels of detail and technical analysis.

Key areas of work that will need to be undertaken to deliver these next steps should include:

Development of a demand model for the study region such that a better understanding of current and future trip making patterns can be analysed, and the full demand impacts of the new station modelled.

A full appraisal of the scheme using the outputs of the demand model to assess demand and journey time savings.

A full appraisal of the revenue impacts of the new station, including any reduced income at other stations which may see reduced demand.

A detailed operational assessment of the Great Western timetable to understand how it might be recast to provide a service to the new station that minimises costs and impacts on other rail users.

A detailed assessment of the costs needed to deliver any associated infrastructure on the network needed to deliver this timetable, together with an appraisal of the wider benefits that this might provide.

A detailed assessment of the costs of providing a shuttle bus to the station, as well as any revenue obtained.

An appraisal of the costs and benefits of providing alternative bus improvements.

Further design work to develop a preferred option with an outline design

Clarification over the consents route to progress the scheme.

Appendix A - Stakeholder Engagement

Stakeholder Engagement Mapping

Timeline Description automatically generated

Stakeholder Quotes

“Having a rail connection would definitely help to attract staff from further afield (Bristol to Reading, Cirencester to Bournemouth corridors) to work in Devizes” March 2021 - Oakford Technology (major local employer with national reach providing IT support to schools and businesses and internet server for schools).

“It would be easier to attract staff to work in Devizes if there was an effective rail connection to the network or alternatively to relocate if rail travel was more easily available so they could visit family and friends. This would also enable recruitment from the Reading and Newbury area as they could commute directly.” March 2021 - TH White (major local employer with over 550 staff, national reach in the agri-tech and commercial vehicle sector).

“Difficulty in recruiting staff for admin and customer skills, having to draw from Swindon and Bath with over an hour commute by car. Most are young, starting their careers and do not own a car and have to rely on bus transport which is inadequate. This puts a lot of people off from working in Devizes or results in difficulty in retaining trained staff. A station at Devizes would be really helpful to our business.”April 2021 - Ryder (major local employer with national reach, HQ Birmingham, operating from Lichfield and Devizes hiring out commercial vehicles)

“We believe the Devizes Gateway station would be beneficial to our FSB members and SMEs in general for several key reasons. A parkway station with good public and sustainable transport links to the town will make business travel easier and remove cars from the road. There is a skills shortage in the area which makes it difficult for businesses to grow and lack of connectivity to larger settlements and cities such as London and Bristol makes it harder to attract talent from outside the area. It is felt that provision of regular train services at a parkway station would be seen as a key attractor for highly skilled workers and would help meet the objectives of SWLEP’s goal of attracting high tech industries to Wiltshire” Federation of Small Businesses SW letter to Danny Kruger MP March 2020

“Lack of transport connectivity also impacts young people as they have to move away to find jobs because public transport commuting is not viable, resulting in a lack of locally available higher skilled professional staff” February 2021 - Devizes Town Council

“A lot of students change their choices and do not go for their first choice because they are limited by transport access issues.” March 2021- Lavington School (secondary school 11-16yrs with large catchment area south of Devizes, satellite 6th Form at Devizes School)

“The only public transport available from the Devizes area is by bus, which most use until they are 17yrs and can drive. If they cannot afford/do not have access to a car, they tend to focus on the Wiltshire College northern campuses which are closer, missing out on course options, including the new Life Sciences (Level 6) faculty at Salisbury in partnership with Bournemouth University.” January 2021 – Wiltshire College (currently only FE/HE in Wiltshire and has 4 campuses)

“Transport is an issue for Devizes students particularly, leading to substantial drop-out from courses. The dilemma they face is “brought up in Devizes, study in Swindon and then get a job but want to continue to live in Devizes and not have to move away to work”. A station for Devizes would help to achieve this vision.” February 2021 – Wiltshire Careers Hub

Survey Activity

To support the development of the SOC, three online surveys were undertaken using a full range of media to attract respondents.

Survey	Audience	Responses
Devizes Community Area	Residents & Other Stakeholders in the Devizes Community Area	2539
Pewsey, Bedwyn, Hungerford and Kintbury	Residents & Other Stakeholders in the Pewsey, Bedwyn, Hungerford, Kintbury areas	454
Young People	Young People in the Devizes Community Area	97

Survey 1 - Devizes Community Area Residents & Other Stakeholders

Questions

How likely would you be to use Devizes Gateway Rail Station when it opens?

What would be the purpose of your MAIN journey by rail to/from Devizes Gateway?

What would be the purpose of all your OTHER journeys by rail to/from Devizes Gateway? tick all that apply

Where would you travel to/from for your MAIN rail journey? give one answer only

Where would you travel to/from for all your OTHER rail journeys? tick all that apply

If COVID-19 had not happened in 2020, what would have been the DESTINATION of your most FREQUENT journey this year OVER 10 miles (by any means of transport)?

What form of transport do you currently use to make your most FREQUENT journey over 10 miles from Devizes? Tick one only.

What form(s) of transport do you currently use to make all OTHER journeys over 10 miles from Devizes? Tick all that apply.

How would you prefer to travel to Devizes Gateway Rail Station? Tick one answer only

Any other comments about the Devizes Gateway project?

Please use this space to tell us about transport developments you would like to see for people living in the Devizes Community Area.

Other Comments - examples

I think this would be an amazing development providing much needed connectivity for a large number of people that is not well served by ghe rail network. The fact that it would provide a low carbon option only reinforces the case for the project.

Sooner the better

I'd really welcome this. I travel to London 3/4 per month from Salisbury into Waterloo and into Bath. This Local connection would make a massive difference to my connectivity and allow clients to Travel into the Area to visit my premises which is not viable by public transport at present.

Fantastic news to reignite business and empty shops in the town

Devizes should never have been closed down, so this is definitely needed

I am keen for this project to bring opportunities for work and study in the Newbury / Reading / London direction within reach for my children, who will be becoming teenagers at the time the station may open.

Fantastic idea. The town should be centred around this development with any future growth of the town that side, ie housing. A fully lit cycle path along the old train line would make absolute sense too.

Think it would be an asset to the town and our economy.

So excited to have something local.

I really hope this goes ahead. We're a large and growing town, yet our public transport links seem inadequate at present. Although I have a car, I would happily use it less if other feasible options were on offer.

Survey 2 – Improving Service & Connectivity for Pewsey, Bedwyn, Hungerford and Kintbury

Questions

How likely would you be to travel to Devizes Gateway from a local station eg, Hungerford, Bedwyn, Pewsey?

How likely would you be to travel to destinations to the West (eg, Bath, Bristol, the South West, Salisbury etc.) from a local station.

Which destinations to the West would you travel to - tick all that apply

What would be the purpose of your journeys to Devizes Gateway, or further West? tick all that apply

Any other comments about the Devizes Gateway project?

Any other comments about rail services in the Pewsey, Bedwyn and Hungerford areas

Other comments - examples

Services to London have always been good but anything else has need to go from Bedwyn to reading and back to Swindon. This would improve it enormously

Better services to the West Country would be a great help for visiting rather than going back to Reading. Services in the daytime (pre-COVID) were too restrictive.

Fantastic idea, would be particularly good to have Westbury as a hub for changing for further connections West. Also extremely useful as home working becomes more pervasive to have the connection to Bristol, making a couple of days a week commute viable.

Sounds fantastic - if this ever happens! I've never fathomed out the mentality of train companies (or British Rail) that would stop a train service at a 'nowhere' station such as Bedwyn, instead of just extending it that bit further to Westbury, where one could change onto other services.

If the Bedwyn service is extended to Westbury via Pewsey this would be major improvement in the options for travel to London. A train every hour or better from London to Pewsey would be a big shot in the arm for the local economy.

A through train to Salisbury and Southampton would be very welcome

improving the transport links in Wiltshire is long overdue esp gong West.

Bedwyn is in Wiltshire and yet is isolated on the county's eastern boundary by lack of public transport to the west and the rest of the county. As trains already stop here to improve the service to the west would be beneficial for the community and open up both work and leisure opportunities while at the same time taking pressure off the roads.

Very important to link to mainline. Currently I travel from Hungerford to Reading to get a train down to Plymouth to see my parents. It is very frustrating when trains to Plymouth travel frequently through Hungerford without stopping. I would be happy to travel to another station on the mainline and change trains, just not travel in the wrong direction!

It’s a fantastic opportunity for rail users in Bedwyn and Hungerford to head west without having to first head to Newbury/Reading and then pointlessly double back . It would expand my work opportunities enormously (I don’t drive) and I could visit family in Bristol.

Sounds great!

I have never understood why rail travel to the west was so difficult (poor connections/timetabling)

Survey 3 - Young People

Questions

When you leave school/6th form what options are you considering?

Which is your preferred option?

Where is your preferred option?

How would you expect to travel to your preferred option? (your main travel mode for the longest part of your journey)

Are there any other choices or places you would like to consider - but travel options are not currently available?

Any other comments?

Key Findings

62.9% of young people said that their next step would be University, with 15.5% stating College, 15.5% Employment and 4.1% Apprenticeship.

33.3% of respondents said that they expected to go to Bath/Bristol, 15.6% London and 10.4% Southampton/Exeter. 48.5% said that they hoped to travel by train.

Choices or Places which Young People would like to consider – free format response. Examples include:

Bath for sixth form - at the moment my parents could not get me there due to where they work. If I had the option to catch a train locally that would offer me the chance to go to school for 6th form in Bath.

London but too long winded a journey from a rural village

Devizes area is generally served very poorly by transport

Bournmouth or Plymouth for a nursing degree

Other Comments – free format response. Examples include:

A local train station would give me the chance to study in places that at the moment would be difficult to due to travel limitations. I feel that I would have a greater sense of independence and would not have to rely on others for lifts.

I think that a local train station would be of huge benefit to the young workforce in the Devizes area.

At the moment by using the bus via town to get to the nearest train station I would not get to the nearest university in time to do the course the proposed rail link from Devizes will improve my chances in getting a university place I want

Please get a train station in Devizes, it would be incredible!

If I went to University, after I left I could see I may well return to Devizes, and if so, would see good quality transport as a key factor in enabling me to commute to Swindon / Salisbury / Bristol / London in order to maximise good career opportunities.

As a young person, not being able to drive, I easily cannot access cities around the area I live without my parents or a very lengthy bus commute. This means that I have missed out on both social and education opportunities, and also limited many jobs that I could get now and in the future.

Having a train station in Devizes, will enhance my educational trajectory.

Appendix B - Rail Operational Feasibility

Overview

This Technical Note primarily considers the operational feasibility of providing a regular service at a new Devizes Gateway station on the Berks and Hants line between Pewsey and Westbury. It also considers the alternative option of serving Devizes by constructing a branch off the Berks and Hants route. This could either use the former rail alignment to reach a new station closer to Devizes town centre, or it could involve a very short spur off the main line into a bay platform on the same site as the proposed Devizes Gateway station.

Baseline services on the Berks and Hants line

Great Western Railway (GWR) supplied an electronic version of their strategic development timetable for use as a base in this study. GWR currently operate three regular direct services between Paddington and stations west of Newbury on the Berks and Hants line and these services were largely unchanged in GWR’s base timetable compared to the existing timetable. These services generally conform to the pattern summarised below, with some variations at the start and end of the day, as well as at peak times. They are operated by Class 802 bi-mode multiple units.

An hourly express service between Paddington and Plymouth / Penzance. This generally runs non-stop between Reading and Taunton.

A 2-hourly semi-fast service between Paddington and Exeter / Paignton / Plymouth. This generally calls at: Newbury, Hungerford, Pewsey, Westbury and Castle Cary between Reading and Taunton. GWR have an aspiration to increase the frequency of this service to hourly, but this uplift in service was not shown in GWR’s base timetable.

An hourly service between Paddington and Bedwyn. This runs semi-fast between Reading and Newbury, then calls at all stations between Newbury and Bedwyn and shunts into the turnback siding immediately to the west of Bedwyn station. Although this service does not pass the site of Devizes Gateway, it has been included as some service options involve extending this service beyond Bedwyn.

GWR’s base timetable included the proposed Metro West Bristol – Westbury service and all relevant existing freight and other passenger operators’ services.

Structure of the base timetable

The Berks and Hants line is a two-track railway with a maximum linespeed of 110mph. There are limited opportunities for trains to overtake which presents an operational challenge given the mix of express passenger trains, stopping passenger trains and heavy freight. Two particular challenges associated with the structure of the base timetable are outlined below.

Up direction between Westbury and Reading

In the Up direction, the Bedwyn to Paddington service departs Bedwyn closely behind the Penzance to Paddington service, as shown in the train graph below. This imposes a challenge to extending the Bedwyn service westwards.

Bedwyn to Paddington service departs Bedwyn shortly after the express passes through
Figure B-1: Train graph between Reading and Westbury for the 14:00 – 16:00 time period. The express and the Bedwyn service are highlighted. Extending the Bedwyn service to start further west will introduce a conflict with the express.

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

Penzance to Paddington express

Down direction between Exeter and Newton Abbot

Under the current timetable, when the semi-fast Paddington to Exeter service via the Berks and Hants route runs beyond Exeter, a conflict arises with the Exmouth to Paignton stopping service, resulting in the base timetable being sub optimal even before additional calls are considered.

The solution currently adopted is to to time the stopping service to depart Exeter later than its ‘standard hour’ departure time. This, in turn, causes it to be caught up by the following Paddington to Penzance express. The only solution is to recess the stopping service in the loop at Dawlish Warren to be overtaken, meaning the stopping service arrives at Newton Abbot 13 minutes later than would otherwise be the case. Not only is this a detrimental increase in journey time for passengers using the service, it means departures cannot conform to a ‘same minutes past each hour’ pattern and the relatively tight overtaking move imposes a performance risk.

Although this issue does not occur on the Berks and Hants line itself, it imposes a restriction on the scope to amend the timetable in the Devizes area. Any measure to slow down the semi-fast service will exacerbate this problem and cause the semi-fast service to be caught up by the following express.

Figure B-2: Train graph between Exeter and Newton Abbot for the 12:00 to 14:00 time period in the existing timetable. Any extension to the Berks and Hants semi-fast service journey times might allow the stopping service to depart earlier from Exeter, in its usual path, it will necessitate pathing time to be added to the express service, extending journey times between Paddington and Plymouth / Penzance.

Berks and Hants express
Berks and Hants semi-fast service

Stopping service recessed at Dawlish Warren

Base timetable and forecast freight

The Berks and Hants line between Reading and Westbury is intensively used by freight services to and from the Mendip quarries. In the Up direction (towards London), freight locomotives haul trailing loads of up to 4200 tonnes, which is exceptionally heavy compared with other parts of the network, and may have a maximum speed of only 45mph. In the Down direction (away from London), trains are predominantly returning empty wagons and are, therefore, much lighter and faster, although some are still restricted to a maximum speed of 45mph.

Freight service levels operating on the Berks & Hants line vary from hour to hour. Timetabled weekday Up direction freight between 05:00 and 22:00 is summarised below.

Time period (at Lavington)	Headcode (s)	Pass time (at Lavington)	Timing load	Remarks
05:00 – 06:00	6A82 / 6O56	05:16	66,2000,60	
06:00 – 07:00	6A53	07:27	66,2200,60,H	Recessed Woodborough and Hungerford
07:00 – 08:00	none
08:00 – 09:00	7A09	08:24	59,4800,45,H	Recessed Woodborough
09:00 – 10:00	6A30	09:28	66,2000,60,H	Recessed Newbury

7A74	09:40	59,3800,45,H	Recessed Woodborough
10:00 – 11:00	none
11:00 – 12:00	6A26 / 6A27	11:03	60,2200,60,H	Recessed Woodborough

6M20	11:30	60,2000,60,H	

7A17	11:42	59,4200,45.H	Recessed Woodborough and Hungerford
12:00 – 13:00	none
13:00 – 14:00	6A77 / 7A77	13:33 TThO	59,4200,45,H	Recessed Hungerford

6V02	13:47	66,600,60	Recessed Woodborough
14:00 – 15:00	6L21	14:33	59,4400,60,H	Recessed Woodborough
15:00 – 16:00	6A83	15:39 MO	66,1800,60,H	Recessed Hungerford
16:00 – 17:00	6A83 / 6A81	16:32	66,1800,60,H	Recessed Hungerford (and Woodborough on Mondays)
17:00 – 18:00	6M41	17:28	66,2400,60,H	Recessed Woodborough and Hungerford
18:00 – 19:00	7A15	18:32	59,4800,45,H	
19:00 – 20:00	6A02	19:47 TWFO	66,2200,60	Recessed Woodborough
20:00 – 21:00	none
21:00 – 22:00	none

The table above shows that a total of 71 paths per Monday – Friday week are timetabled between 05:00 and 22:00 in the Up direction. In most hours, no more than one train operates. However, there are two hours (09:00 – 10:00 and 13:00 – 14:00) when two trains operate and one hour (11:00 – 12:00) when three trains operate. Note that these higher intensities only occur in odd hours. This is because GWR’s 2-hourly semi fast service operates in even hours, reducing the available capacity for freight.

Network Rail have noted aspirations to increase the number of freight services on the route in RYR Devizes Gateway Advisory Note on Future Freight Forecasting November 2020 and this uplift is not reflected in GWR’s base. This states that under a high growth scenario, the number of Up direction freight paths are forecast to increase by 72% by 2033/34 and by 113% by 2043/44 compared to November 2020 levels. Assuming these factors are applied uniformly, this would equate to a requirement for 122 paths per Monday – Friday week between 05:00 and 22:00 by 2033/34, and 151 paths per Monday – Friday week between 05:00 and 22:00 by 2043/44.

Options considered

Following discussion with GWR, the following options were identified as potential means of serving Devizes.

Provide an hourly stopping service at Devizes Gateway by extending the Paddington – Bedwyn service to Westbury or Frome. The following potential solutions to the timetable challenge identified at Bedwyn were explored:

Provide a loop at Bedwyn to allow express to overtake, keeping the existing timetable structure

Use the existing loops at Newbury or Hungerford to allow the express to overtake, with minimal change to the existing timetable structure.

Recast the Up timetable to match the symmetry of the Down timetable.

Provide a 2-hourly semi fast service at Devizes Gateway.

Add to existing semi-fast. This has already been identified as undesirable owing to the impact west of Exeter.

Increase the semi-fast service to hourly (as per Option 3 below) and call the additional service at Devizes (perhaps only running as far as Taunton to avoid problematic interactions further west).

Increase the semi-fast service to hourly and call at Devizes. This has already been identified as undesirable for half the services owing to the impact west of Exeter.

Provide a branch line to Devizes, or provide a bay platform at Devizes Gateway, and extend the Paddington – Bedwyn service to Devizes / Devizes Gateway.

Approach to the timetable assessment

This purpose of this assessment is to provide a high-level review of the range of options that exist for providing a rail service at Devizes. No run time analysis has been carried out. Instead, the penalty of calling at Devizes has been assumed to match the existing penalty of calling at Pewsey with a 1.5 minute dwell, which add:

3.5 minutes in the Down direction

4 minutes in the Up direction

This has been incorporated as an adjustment between Woodborough and Lavington timing points using the 2021 Western & Wales Timetable Planning Rules v.

Note that Up trains depart Pewsey on a 1 in 416 climb, steepening to 1 in 200, then 1 in 270. Linespeed is 100mph, increasing to 110mph to the west. The expected Devizes station location is on a 1 in 222 climb for Up trains. Linespeed is 110mph, dropping to 100mph to the west. Therefore, the two stations appear analogous for the purposes of this study.

Option review

Approach 1: providing an hourly stopping service by extending the Bedwyn service to Westbury or Frome

Down direction

The concept of extending the Bedwyn service raises relatively few challenges in the Down direction. The train graph reproduced below shows the extended services have no notable detrimental impact on other passenger services or freight between Bedwyn and Westbury. The extended service could call at Pewsey. If an hourly stopping service were to be considered an acceptable substitute for the existing 2-hourly semi-fast service, the Pewsey call could be removed from the semi-fast service, potentially easing the issues in the existing timetable identified west of Exeter. All the options considered in the sections below review the impact in the Up direction which is the more challenging direction.

Figure B-3: Train graph between Reading and Westbury for the 14:00 to 16:00 time period. The extended Bedwyn services are highlighted and would arrive at Westbury around xx:41 past each hour.

Freight recessed at Woodborough for Penzance service can reach Westbury ahead of extended Bedwyn service

Freight following extended Bedwyn service gets a better run because it does not have to wait for shunt to clear Bedwyn. However, it means 1C85 still does not gain much from omitting Pewsey.

Option 1a: Convert the existing turnback siding at Bedwyn into a new loop to allow the express to overtake

The impact upon other services between Westbury and Bedwyn is minimal, although there is a potentially tight margin between a 4200 tonne freight path (7A77) and the extended service at Bedwyn loop. Therefore, there may be a dependency on more powerful freight locomotives being used on these services (note that a 3800 tonne train with the same maximum speed is capable of clearing Bedwyn in time).

This option would result in the extended Bedwyn service waiting in the new loop for around 9 minutes to be overtaken. This still achieves a turnaround at Westbury of up to 20 minutes (subject to paths being available in and out the station). There is insufficient capacity at Westbury station to accommodate this service. There is insufficient time to extend the service to Frome and achieve a robust turnaround there.

Figure B-4: Train graph between Reading and Westbury for the 12:30 to 14:30 time period. The extended Bedwyn services are highlighted and would depart Westbury around xx:01 past each hour.

This option permits up to two freight paths to operate per hour when the semi-fast service does not run, reducing to one path per hour when the semi-fast service runs. Between 05:00 and 22:00, it is expected that at 24 freight paths could be accommodated, equating to 120 daytime paths per Monday – Friday week. This is close to matching the 122 train forecast for 2033/34, but does not meet the 2043/44 forecast of 151 paths.

Figure B-5: Platform occupancy graph for Westbury for the 13:30 to 15:30 time period. A platform would need to be available during the shaded period to accommodate a 20 minute turnaround. The forthcoming Metro West services have been identified: these occupy Platform 3 at the same time as the extended Bedwyn service would be in the station.

Metro west services

Option 1b: recess the extended Bedwyn service in the existing Up Passenger Loop at Hungerford

This option is similar to 1a, but extends journey times further, this reducing the turnaround at Westbury to a maximum of 15 minutes. In the base timetable, freight services were booked to use the Up Passenger Loop at Hungerford and using this loop for the Bedwyn service is likely to be detrimental to freight capacity. The option of the extended Bedwyn service recessing at Newbury instead of Hungerford was not explored as it would likely reduce the turnaround at Westbury to an unacceptable level.

Figure B-6: Train graph between Reading and Westbury for the 12:30 to 14:30 time period. The extended Bedwyn services are highlighted and would depart Westbury around xx:56 past each hour.

This freight service would be unable to recess at Hungerford

Option 1c: recast the Up direction timetable to match the symmetry on the Down direction

The challenge created by the Bedwyn service and the express at Bedwyn only arises in the Up direction because the Up direction timetable has a different symmetry to the Down direction. The option of recasting the Up direction timetable was explored, so that it would match the symmetry of the Down direction and thereby remove the problem at Bedwyn and give the extended Bedwyn service a clean run. The recast Up direction timetable would amend Berks and Hants arrivals at Paddington as follows:

The service from Bedwyn would arrive at xx:22 vice xx:52. There is a suitable path between Reading and Paddington at this time which is currently used by the 2-hourly Newbury to Paddington infill working that operates in hours the semi-fast service does not run. In the event of the semi-fast service becoming hourly, this path would be available for the recast Bedwyn service.

The express from Penzance would arrive at xx:29 as per the base timetable (no change required)

The semi-fast service would arrive at xx:59 vice xx:07 (between the arrival from Oxford and the arrival from Cheltenham). This would occupy a completely new path and might be challenging to path between Reading and Paddington. A less desirable option would be for this service to arrive at xx:52 in the path of the Bedwyn service in the base timetable.

Turnarounds at Paddington would increase and the impact of this has not been reviewed. The following issues were identified with this option elsewhere on the route:

A conflict arises between the retimed semi-fast service and a Cross Country service between Newton Abbot and Cogload Junction. The Cross Country service has an 11 minute dwell at Bristol Temple Meads, so there may be an opportunity to consider a later path from Newton Abbot, but this is unlikely to be feasible in the short / medium term owing to further conflicts that would be created with local services.

A conflict arises between the retimed semi-fast service and the Weymouth to Bristol service. This could be avoided in the short term by running the semi-fast service in the hours the Weymouth service does not run, but this would then prevent the service from increasing to hourly.

The extended Bedwyn service would have a 1 hour turnaround at Westbury. This could be a benefit to connectivity if local services were timed around this arrival, but it is otherwise undesirable and of no value in the short term with local services in base timetable.

The timetable pattern created does not allow a 4200 tonne freight to reach Woodborough from Westbury in a gap between passenger services. This means this concept is incompatible with running freight of this weight.

Overall, this option is unlikely to be feasible in the short / medium term.

Approach 2: providing a 2-hourly semi-fast service at Devizes Gateway

Option 2a: call the existing semi-fast service at Devizes Gateway.

The challenge this creates west of Exeter has already been identified. This option could only be implemented in the event that another station were omitted (there is no obvious candidate on the route), or an extension in journey time in the Penzance express were accepted.

Option 2b: increase the frequency of the semi-fast service to hourly and call alternate trains at Devizes Gateway

If the semi-fast were increased to hourly, it would be possible to consider a Devizes call in alternate services, provided no more than one train every two hours were extended beyond Exeter. The feasibility of increasing the semi-fast service to hourly was considered out of the scope of this study, but it remains an aspiration of GWR.

Approach 3: providing an hourly semi-fast service at Devizes Gateway

Given the challenges arising west of Exeter, providing an hourly semi-fast service at Devizes Gateway would raise the same issues as calling the existing semi-fast service.

Approach 4: providing and hourly stopping service by extending the Bedwyn service to Devizes or Devizes Gateway.

The Up express from Penzance generally passes Woodborough a xx/26½. Provided an extended Bedwyn service did not call at Pewsey, it would pass Woodborough at xx/32. Therefore, it is likely to be feasible to extend this service, either onto a reopened branch line, or to a bay platform on the proposed Devizes Gateway site.

Conclusion

Providing rail services at Devizes is operationally challenging and service provision must be considered alongside the route wide constraints and opportunities.

In all cases where the Bedwyn service is extended, an additional platform at Westbury is required. The additional cost of such an enhancement would need to be justified by its wider benefits, to be considered in a separate strategic assessment. Extending the service onwards to Frome was not found to be a viable solution to avoid this investment as turnaround times would either be undesirably short, or so long that additional infrastructure would need to be constructed at Frome instead.

Providing a loop at Bedwyn would likely offer a workable solution, but with sub-optimal journey times and a possible need to use more powerful locomotives on the heaviest Class 7 freight services. In the event that the loop at Bedwyn were no longer required for this service in the longer term, it could have a future use as a location to recess freight. This option meets 2033/34 freight capacity, but does not meet 2043/44 freight forecasts.

Using the existing loop at Hungerford results in worse journey times than recessing at Bedwyn and prevents freight from using the loop. Westbury turnaround reduces to a maximum of 15 mins. Using the existing loops at Newbury further reduces turnaround and increases journey time.

Recasting the Up service to be symmetric with the Down offers better journey times, but has many challenges with integration with other services and jeopardises the ability to path heavy freight. This option is unlikely to be viable in the short-term, but might be worth considering in a future scenario where electrification reaches the Mendip quarries and more consideration can be given to the interaction with other services.

Adding calls to the existing two-hourly semi-fast service is undesirable owing to the impact west of Exeter; however, adding calls to a second semi-fast service is likely to be workable, provided that service can be pathed in the first place (which was out of the scope of this study). The issues west of Exeter mean that no viable means was found to provide an hourly semi-fast call at Devizes.

Extension of the Bedwyn service onto a branch to Devizes or into a bay platform at Devizes Gateway is likely to be feasible, although it is unlikely to be possible for the service to call at Pewsey (owing to the Up direction timetable structure). The infrastructure associated with providing a station at Devizes would be higher than for other options and is likely to have less strategic benefit than the infrastructure associated with recessing the service at Bedwyn.

Although these options were each tested in isolation, in some cases it would be possible to implement them in combination. For instance, Option 1a (extending the Bedwyn service with a new loop at Bedwyn) and Option 2b (providing a 2-hourly semi-fast service) could be delivered in conjunction to serve a wider range of markets than each would be capable of individually.

Appendix C - Demographic Analysis

Population Pyramids

Appendix D – Indicative Scheme Drawing

Andrew Tucker

Atkins Limited

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© Atkins Limited except where stated otherwise

The Berks and Hants route is the Great Western Main Line running between Reading and Exeter

UK Office of National Statistics

Office for National Statistics – Mid-year Population Estimates 2020.

Green Book Review 2020: Findings and Response

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/937700/Green_Book_Review_final_report_241120v2.pdf

The Devizes Development Partnership is a not-for-profit organisation, run by local volunteers, that works in partnership with Devizes Town Council and the Devizes Area Tourism Partnership to provide information to residents and visitors of Devizes.

The New Adlestrop Railway Atlas © Richard Fairhust.

Office for National Statistics - Mid-year Population Estimates 2019.

One of Wiltshire’s 18 Community Areas created to provide a focus for local decision-making when the county became a Unitary Authority.

Wiltshire Council Rights of Way Explorer. Available at: Wiltshire Council Rights of Way Explorer (arcgis.com)

ONS 2019 mid-year population estimates.

Community Area Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (Devizes Community Area), based on Business Register and Employment Survey Data, 2018.

Business Register and Employment Survey – Broad Industrial Groups 2019 (LSOAs).

Labour Market Intelligence: Devizes constituency.

2018-based subnational population projections, ONS. Population of Wiltshire in 2018 is 498,064, and is projected to be 544,419 in 2038.

Index of Multiple Deprivation data, LSOA level (Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government) – December 2019

Land Registry, Price Paid data. June 2020.

Office for National Statistics – Census 2011 (QS416EW – Car or van availability)

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Community Area Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (Devizes Community Area), Wiltshire Council, November 2019.

Office for National Statistics – WU03UK Location of usual residence and place of work by method of travel to work.

Office for National Statistics – WU03UK Location of usual residence and place of work by method of travel to work.

The table presents local authorities which provide at least 40 journeys to Devizes. The ‘other’ row summarises all other local authorities.

The ONS defines Built-Up Areas as “land which is ‘irreversibly urban in character’, meaning that they are characteristic of a town or city.”

The table presents Built-Up Areas which provide at least 250 journeys to Devizes. The ‘other’ row summarises all other BUAs in Wiltshire.

Non BUAs are rural areas.

The table presents local authorities which provide at least 40 journeys from Devizes. The ‘other’ row summarises all other local authorities.

The table presents Built-Up Areas which provide at least 250 journeys from Devizes. The ‘other’ row summarises all other BUAs in Wiltshire.

There is a presence of long-distance cycling journeys to and from Devizes, which is considered unlikely. This could be explained as human error when completing the Census.

Propensity to Cycle Tool.

Wiltshire Council Town Cycle Networks.

OS Maps: National Cycle Network.

Wiltshire Council Rights of Way Explorer.

These times may be different compared to typical travel times due to COVID-19 related restrictions to travel in place at the time of writing

DfT - National Public Transport Data Repository (Updated in Jan 2021). Reflects reduced services as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Community Area Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (Devizes Community Area), based on Wiltshire Council, 2019/20.

Community Area Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (Devizes Community Area), Wiltshire Council, 2012-2017.

Weekday average – 08:00 to 09:00, TrafficMaster data (2018)

Delay difference by model link. Wiltshire SATURN traffic model. AM Peak plot comparing the 2018 Base year with the 2036 With Core Strategy Growth scenario. This scenario does not include the delivery of the emerging Local Plan growth.

Air quality management areas in Wiltshire, Wiltshire Council. Available at: Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) - Wiltshire (wiltshireairquality.org.uk)

Swindon and Wiltshire Rail Strategy (2018).

TransWilts CIC is a community rail company that encourages and promotes community use of rail stations and represents the interest of rail users in Wiltshire.

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© Ordnance Survey

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transport-analysis-guidance-tag

MOIRA is an industry standard rail forecasting tool containing managed by the Rail Delivery Group

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National Travel Survey, Table NTS0409b, miles per car trip derived from statistics on average annual miles per person and annual trips per person.

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https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/937700/Green_Book_Review_final_report_241120v2.pdf

New ‘Devizes Parkway’ station could open as early as 2025, ITV News West County. Available at: New 'Devizes Parkway' station could open as early as 2025 - but plans to revive Corsham station struggle | West Country | ITV News

Atkins | Contains sensitive information Devizes Gateway SOBC | v7.1 | October 2021	Page 2 of 16

Atkins | Contains sensitive information Devizes Gateway SOBC | v7.1 | October 2021	Page 2 of 16

Tucker, Andrew

2021-12-09T09:43:00Z

Murphy, Robert